Housing Forecast: The Present is a Lagging Indicator, and Sometimes it Rhymes

Some Very Interesting comments from Jonathan Miller’s Housing Notes

May 8, 2015

Excerpt:

Earlier this week I came across a brilliant tweet – that when applied in the context of housing, spoke for a lot of the gimmicky click-bait research that comprises a large swath of housing market news coverage.

The present is a lagging indicator.

— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) May 3, 2015

 

While I plan to use that quote extensively, my favorite remains one by Mark Twain (supposedly). It is especially useful when making comparisons to the the boom, bubble, bust cycle of the prior decade.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I prefer my adapted version:

History doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

So much of what we read or think about housing is backward looking or a provides a current view based on a prior event that had a completely different set of circumstance and worst of all, a lack of context. Sound bites relied on by market participants and media often have limited applicability to specific situations and perspectives.

Link to the full Housing Notes issue:

http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=47540980899c1d755b4cddc48&id=9493fa8875&e=e758e759fb

My comment: I love Jonathan Millers writing, speaking etc. The only appraiser I know who is widely quoted, and interviewed, in the media!!

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FHA extends deadline for new Handbook 4000.1 to June 15, 2015

Handbook Implementation Date Extended 90-days to Give Lenders More Time to Operationalize

On April 30, 2015, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced that it has extended the effective date for the policies contained within its new Single Family Housing Policy Handbook (SF Handbook; HUD Handbook 4000.1) from June 15, 2015 to September 14, 2015.

FHA recognizes that there currently are a number of competing initiatives occurring simultaneously in the mortgage industry that may be challenging mortgagee and other industry partner resources. For this reason, FHA is extending the SF Handbook effective date by 90 days with the expectation that this additional time will enable mortgagees and others to be fully compliant with the new effective date.

Link to new handbook 4000.1http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=40001HSGH.pdf

The bulk of the appraisal section starts on pdf page 441 and runs through pdf page 507.

My comment: We love to procrastinate ;> For appraisers, this means there will be opportunities for webinars and seminars. Also, written explanations. The June issue of the paid Appraisal Today newsletter will have an article on the changes written by Doug Smith, SRA, Montana appraiser. Doug has been writing for the paid newsletter for many years. To subscribe, click on the ad below.

Yes, you can start using the new criteria now. Some people like to get ready ahead of time ;>

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Appraisals-how long to write/how many per week

On average, how long does it take you to complete a 1004 interior inspection appraisal report including inspection time (excluding driving time)?

Another Very Interesting poll from www.appraisalport.com

 My comment: I have been hearing about scope creep causing increased appraisal report writeup times but now there is some data. Significantly increased, and still increasing from pre-AMC days. My non-lender report writing time has not changed from since before HVCC. Appraisalport is a lender portal, so I guess there are some appraisers that write fast and others that write slow. Or, maybe it depends on your clients. AMCs tend to combine requirements of multiple lenders into very long lists of requirements.

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On average, how many “interior inspection” appraisals reported on a 1004 do you normally produce in a week?

My comments: Starting with a conforming tract home close to your office, the time increases, depending on driving time, use of an assistant and client requirements.

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