5-25-17 Newz: Lenders’ AMC problems, Arms-length Transactions, Incredible Private Islands

3 incredible private islands

Just for Fun – very short video
A few tidbits
– Locations: Key Largo  (FL), Washington state and Long Island NY
– Space for 110 ft. yacht
– Lowest price: $11 million
– Tennis court that doubles as a helicopter pad

http://www.realtor.com/videos/video-the-ultimate-getaway-you-can-own-one-of-these-3-incredible-private-islands/ac74f30c-de71-43ba-bae1-e54d8336a7ae 

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Analyzing the subject’s sales history

By Josh Wailitt
Short video. Worth watching. Check out some of the other videos in his USPAP errors series at www.appraiserelearning.com
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Arm’s-Length Transactions, Part 1

Read more!!

5-18-17// Newz, AVM/BPO Problems, Castles in America, Cherry Picking Comps

Castles in America

Excerpts:
Roger Declements likes to build his castles the medieval way.
He starts with stone – up to 1,000 tons of it – and then constructs two parallel walls. After years of work, sometimes an entire decade, these walls add up to what he considers “the most advanced, strongest and most comfortable” abode a person can have.
In the United States, where there are no authentic medieval castles, imitation ones are few and far between. But interest in them has grown, in part because of the popularity of books and shows like “Vikings,” “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones” and the Harry Potter series.

My comment: Very interesting article with good photos plus some info on castles in Europe for comparison. FYI – article is in the New York Times, which only allows a few free articles before requiring a subscription.

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Cherry-picking comps & being connected to the neighborhood

By Ryan Lundquist
Excerpts: On paper it looked like value was going to be so much higher. Why? Because comps to the north were easily 10-20% higher, and even Zillow came in $100,000 above the appraisal (ahem). The big cause of such a legitimately lower appraisal boiled down to one thing. Location. Today I want to show a situation where a small section of the neighborhood was blocked off from the rest, and it was a big deal for value. Have a look below and let me know what you think. Anything to add?
Methodology when only 5 sales in 5 years: When appraising something in this section, there were zero sales over the past 2 years and otherwise only 5 sales in the previous 5 years. This means I had to really study older sales to understand how value works…

My comments: Lots of good ideas. Very well written with good analysis and excellent use of graphs and annotated maps. I regularly go back in the past for comps and analysis. Making market conditions adjustments is very easy. I also use percent adjustments, which tend to be stable over time.

Read more!!

5-11-17 Newz:: Zillow Sued, Value of Views, Portable Architecture

Portable Architecture You Can Roll, Wear, Tow, or Float

A sauna on skis and 11 other dwellings made to move.

Excerpt: Some of the examples are ideal for recreation, such as the compact-cute, California-made Golden Gate 2 camper, with a rounded timber frame, portholes, and a spot for a surfboard. For lovers of winter sports, the Nomad Sauna, which was built on a lake in Norway, includes an internal ice-hole for intensely refreshing breaks from the heat.
It is not all fun and games-others are designed for important, practical use. It can also be used to provide shelter during a crisis, or for protection in extreme weather.
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Sleeping lawyer at mortgage fraud trial

Excerpt: A businessman will get a new trial on mortgage fraud charges because his defense attorney was seen sleeping by the judge, witnesses and the federal court jurors who convicted him last year.
U.S. District Judge Donetta Ambrose ruled James Nassida was denied a fair trial because Stan Levenson dozed during the October trial. Levenson has acknowledged that he fell asleep because he was taking cold medicines that made him drowsy.
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What are views worth?

To figure out the premium that these vistas can command, the realtor.com® data team compared the prices for all the homes for sale on our site that highlight these sought-after panoramas, and then compared them to similar-size properties in adjacent ZIP codes with no view to speak of.

Here are a few:
4. Chicago, IL: Lake Michigan
Median list price for homes with views: $525,000
Killer view premium: 96.8%

1. Manhattan, NY: Central Park
Median list price for homes with views: $3,795,000
Killer view premium: 39.9%

My comment: Percent of value varies widely. Of course, the total dollar amounts vary even more! I love data!!

Read more!!

5-4-17 Newz .Appraiser Sues Coester. Regression Depression .Google Docs Phishing Scam

Appraiser sues Coester – email hacking

 Source: Appraiserville by Jonathan Miller

With links to court documents
 
Mark Skapinetz v. CoesterVMS.com Inc. and Brian Coester
Excerpt: Do you like to read John Grisham books? I have a story that is much better. It is about a residential fee appraiser in Georgia who filed suit against what the appraisal industry sees as the most notorious AMCs out there and its owner. The appraiser provides compelling tangible evidence with his claim that his email was hacked by the AMC.
… The complaint reads better than “The Firm.”
http://www.millersamuel.com/note/april-28-2017  Scroll down to appraiserville 
 
Dustin Harris Interview with the appraiser:http://appraisersblogs.com/mark-skapinetz-free-appraisers 
More analysis, opinions, and links to documents plus comments
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Regression Depression

Why is it so easy? Why is it so hard?

By George Dell, MAI, SRA, ASA

Read more!!

Appraisal Today! No Appraisal Tomorrow?

Appraisal Today! No Appraisal Tomorrow?

AVMs are a threat to appraisers today and tomorrow!!

By Barry Bates

Is the quasi-provocative title of Barry Bates’ article in the May 2017 issue of Appraisal Today. It’s “quasi” because the central issue, the livelihood threat represented by AVMs, has been around for at least 20 years. It’s provocative because Barry’s research suggests that AVMs, bolstered by artificial intelligence, satellite overlays and more robust attributive data, are a bigger threat than ever.

He also cites a 2015 Oxford white paper that studied 702 U.S. jobs and rated their likelihood of total computerization over the next 10 years; “Appraisers and Assessors” warranted a 90% likelihood. Bates explains why, by 2023, that might as well be a function of the residential market assignment volume, i.e., 10% of 2013 volume. One of the factors he mentions is the erosion of federal rules that once ensured that every new origination for refinance or purchase would be accompanied by a full appraisal of the real property.

Not only has the rule been undermined by a variety of new Fannie/Freddie/VA loan programs that don’t require appraisals, but the federal rule itself was modified in 2015 to give the GSEs power to decide whether any particular loan (or type of loan)was worthy of a waiver.

Another factor (of several) is the availability of “data on steroids”: collateral information (including every field in the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) from past and current appraisals populating the GSE AVMs and database from every appraisal sent through one of the uniform collateral data portals, like Fannies UCDP, which already allows for appraisal “sharing” for aggregators and Fannie’s correspondent lenders (even the 1004MC data can be offloaded to a siding for market analysis).

Bates concludes that all the necessary pieces are being assembled for an artificial intelligence AVM with robustness equal to the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.

[Editor’s Note. When asked whether his prognostications were a little on the gloomy side, Bates rejoined, I know, I know, ‘The pessimists are right, but the optimists have more fun.’ I mean, hey, even paranoids have enemies! And unfortunately, as a card-carrying neurotic, I’d almost always prefer to be right.]

Bates’ full commentary is in the May issue of the Paid Appraisal  Today. For more

info, go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products