coronavirus

• How to keep safe from COVID-19, including tips for appraisers
• The Vaccine Race

Appraisal Today 08-20 PDF newsletter  (3 column format)

Appraisal Today 8-20 no columns newsletter (No columns, larger fonts – read on your computer, tablet or smartphone)

• How much has changed since my first coronavirus newsletter articles,  published April 1, 2020? – Page 1
• How to “defeat” COVID-19 – Page 2
• Summary of appraiser personal risks – Page 2
• Summary of appraiser inspection risks (lots more detail below) – Page 2

• Risky homes – Page 3
• Information and instructions to occupants before the appraisal – Page 3
• PPE – Face coverings – Page 3
• Which are the most effective face masks? – Page 4
• PPE – gloves, booties, face shields, goggles, etc. – Page 4
• A brief look at the past – Page 4
• My science background – why I write about the pandemic – Page 4

• Physical distancing – 3 ft. vs. 6 ft. vs. 13 ft. vs. ??? – Page 5
• Droplets vs. Aerosols – distance traveled – Page 5
• What is virus “shedding”? – Page 5
• Particle size: droplets vs. aerosols – Page 5
• When are people most infectious (high viral load)? – Page 5
• When is breathing most risky? – Page 5

• Inside vs. outside – Page 6
• How long speaking with someone does it take to get infected? – Page 6
• Outdoor risk – Page 6
• Who transmits (spreads) the virus? – Page 6
• How safe is going inside a home for an appraisal compare with other places, such as grocery stores? – Page 6
• The density of people in a home – a big risk factor for appraisers – Page 6
• Why what scientists say about COVID keeps changing – Page 7

• Preprint vs. peer-reviewed scientific research papers and why does it matter? – Page 7
• Role of CDC and WHO – Page 7
• What about therapeutics (treatments)? – Page 8
• Some people have COVID symptoms for a long time, even young people – Page 8
• Is COVID -19 a vascular (blood vessel) disease? Page 8
• Can you get re-infected? – Page 8
• Scientific resources I use – Page 8

• Dr. Anthony Fauci – the “big picture” – Page 9
• Where to get reliable information – scientific resources I use – Page 9
• Email newsletters I subscribe to and use regularly – Page 9
• Web sites – Page 9
• Local and state news sources – Page 9
• What does this mean for you? – Page 9

Topic List – the Vaccine Race

The Vaccine Testing Process – Page 10

• Preclinical Testing:
  Phase 1 Safety Trials:
  Phase II Expanded Trials:
  Approval:
  Combined Phases

Types of vaccines – Page 10

• Genetic Vaccines
  Viral Vector Vaccines
  Protein-Based Vaccines
  Whole-Virus Vaccines
  Repurposed Vaccines

• Operation Warp Speed Vaccines 4 are in clinical trials – Page 11
• What are some of the issues in getting an effective and safe vaccine? – Page 11
• Why do vaccines take so long to become available? – Page 11
• Why are we hearing the end of this year or early next year for an approved vaccine? – Page 11
• Is “Operation Warp Speed” too fast? – Page 11

• Will enough people take the vaccine? – Page 12
• Who will get the vaccine? – Page 12
• What about distribution? – Page 13
• How many vaccines are being developed? – Page 13
• Operation Warp Speed – Page 13
• What is the U.S. government funding for COVID-19? – Page 14
• COVID Vaccine Trackers – very useful – Page 14
• Human Challenge Trials – Page 14
• How to keep up with what is happening daily, and sometimes hourly – Page 14

This issue has a long update of my April article on coronavirus. That article covered the basic science of pandemics, why data (testing) is important, the history of pandemics, etc. Of course, information is changing on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis. The effective date of the newsletter is Friday, July 31.

How safe is going inside a home for an appraisal compare with other places, such as grocery stores?

Excerpts: … But with general breathing, 20 viral particles per minute into the environment, even if every virus ended up in your lungs (which is very unlikely), you would need 1000 viral particles divided by 20 per minute = 50 minutes.

Speaking increases the release of respiratory droplets about 10 fold; ~200 virus particles per minute. Again, assuming every virus is inhaled, it would take ~5 minutes of speaking face-to-face to receive the required dose.

The exposure to virus x time formula is the basis of contact tracing. Anyone you spend greater than 10 minutes within a face-to-face situation is potentially infected. Anyone who shares a space with you (say an office) for an extended period is potentially infected.

When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers – all day; customers – an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.

To read more, click here

My comments: This is the very best understandable explanation I have ever seen for COVID-19, The author is a Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. I had read about everything in the article, but having it all in one place, including the illustrations is Most Excellent.

As compared with working in a grocery store for 8 hours, for example, appraisers choose their own PPE, are only in the home for a limited time, etc. If there is a serious problem, such as someone sick and coughing, they can leave. Grocery store employees cannot walk out the door and keep their jobs.

This article focuses on the current “opening up” of restrictions and helps you decide. Do you want to eat inside a local restaurant, shop at a book store, etc.?

What “hit” me was the section on members of a chorus, singing in a small room, who were affected. When you sing you regularly increase the volume and pitch of your voice, causing lots of air coming out of your lungs into the air. You learn to control your breath. I was in two vocal groups. One was large and practiced in a large classroom in a school with high ceilings. The other was small and practiced in a member’s small living home.

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New (May 13) 1 hour video, Decoding COVID-19. The best video I have ever seen on COVID. Easy to understand. Fantastic animations. No politics, of course ;> To watch on your computer Google “PBS Nova, then the name of the video. Very good!!

“Join the doctors on the front lines of the fight against COVID-19 as they strategize to stop the spread, and meet the researchers racing to develop treatments and vaccines. Along the way, discover how this devastating disease emerged, what it does to the human body, and why it exploded into a pandemic.”

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OF COURSE, WE MUST ALL ASSUME THAT WE, AND EVERYONE ELSE, IS INFECTED. Even if you were tested this morning and was negative, you could be infected in the afternoon. Unfortunately, testing to see if you are have been infected and are immune is not reliable yet. Myself and lots of other people, are convinced we were infected in the past. I was very sick with a high fever, bad diarrhea and stomach pain in mid-March for a week. Maybe someday I will find out with a reliable test…

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What is difficult about going inside homes, is that you never know what will happen. In contrast, you can go to the local grocery store that you are most comfortable with, such as when there are fewer shoppers, number of people inside the store is limited if necessary, everyone wears masks, you know the layout and can get in and out quickly, etc.

Note: I may be the only one recommending face masks for occupants who don’t (or can’t) leave. But, you risk yourself, and your family’s heath if you don’t do this.

REMEMBER: WEARING A FACE MASK MOSTLY PROTECTS OTHER PEOPLE, NOT YOURSELF. YOU, AND YOUR FAMILY, ARE NOT SAFE IF OCCUPANTS DON’T MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE. IF THERE ARE OCCUPANTS IN THE HOME WHO WON’T OR CAN’T MOVE OUT, BE SURE TO REQUIRE FACE MASKS. BRING CLOTH FACE MASKS AND LET THEM USE THEM. Washable cloth masks are inexpensive. You can use them again.

What many appraisers are wearing:

– Face mask (MOST IMPORTANT)

– Disposable gloves

– Booties (maybe)

– Face shield (maybe)

You can easily get washable cloth masks. Disposable gloves are more available now. $25 (or less) for 100 on Amazon. Santizers are still tough to get. I use alcohol swabs. You can make up your own sanitizer using diluted bleach and paper towels.

– All doors Interior and exterior) and windows are open for at least 10 minutes before your arrival. Turn on all lights. Occupant must go outside. Issue: what about rain and snow, elderly people who have difficulty moving, etc. If there are occupants who are unable to move out, require a face mask or bring one for them. Note: Some appraisers are asking for inside social distancing. That can be difficult. Definitely need to have them wear masks.

– You will be arriving with mask, gloves, etc.

– You will bring washable face masks for them to use if they don’t have any, for use while you are there.

– You will measure the outside and they cannot follow or “help” you.

– You will ask or answer any questions outside (6 ft. distance) .

– Some appraisers ask about health issues. Of course, no one knows if they have the virus, but you can ask if anyone is sick, especially sneezing or coughing, which is very, very risky for you.

– As little as possible.

– Interview etc. outside the home with 6 ft. distance

– Glove disposal

– Sanitize vehicle and hands

– Some appraisers change clothes in the garage and wash them, similar to healthcare workers.

REMEMBER: ALWAYS DISPOSE OF GLOVES. ONLY USE ONCE: Not touching anything can be hard to remember all the time. Do not use gloves at the next house as you could contaminate it. Or, disinfect the gloves if you don’t throw them away. Gloves are much easier to purchase now.

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Where I live (San Francisco Bay Area), (almost) everyone wears masks and does 6 ft. distancing, so people are used to it. If you work in states or areas that are not like this, you will have to persuade them to do it.

– Occupant wants to shake hands, etc. Explain that you don’t do that anymore (or whatever you are comfortable with). During flu season, for a long time, I didn’t shake hands. I said that I am not feeling well. Not a good idea today, so they don’t call 911 ;> Give them a mask.

– Occupant gets very close and won’t step back. Give them a cloth mask. Leave if they refuse to step back or use mask. Don’t risk your, and your family’s, health.

FYI, I have difficulty remembering about social distancing myself sometimes. Recently my landscaper came over to fix my sprinklers. Got way too close when asking him questions. Hard to change the habits of a lifetime!!

COVID-19 Science Update for my April 3 monthly newsletter – Testing

Humans are social animals. We must have contacts.

Call or email friends and relatives, including those you have not contacted for quite a while. I have been doing this. Very rewarding!

Do you have relatives or neighbors living alone, especially older people who are not going out much? Maybe a neighbor needs someone to get groceries or drop off a dinner or lunch from you? Just leave on their front porch.

Set up a lunch or dinner in your rear yard or deck. For example, your sister and brother in law on one side of the deck and you and your family on the other side. Put food in the middle using your own utensils. Works great!!

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Very, very easy to use. Skype is still horrible, of course.

So far, I have used zoom to jam with my bandmates, have a group chat with pickleball players, do a virtual lunch for my weekly Friday lunch with a local appraiser friend. It keeps expanding every week.

If you’re worried about safety etc read “Zoom safe to use if properly configured”

To read the article, click here

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Topics include:

To read more, click here

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Because of this, I strongly recommend that you require all people in the home to wear masks when you are doing an interior inspection. Take extras with you to give to them, or to the borrower coming into the home “just to let you know about the deck”, for example.

Gloves are good, but you can always sanitize your hands after the inspection.

I feel much safer during my weekly grocery shopping on Sunday mornings. I have been going to the same grocery at the same date and time for quite awhile. Two weeks ago, about 30% of employees and people had face masks. Last Sunday, almost everyone did!

Masks also have social aspects, such as “We are all in this together to defeat the coronavirus.” or “We are all keeping each other safe”. I also noticed that those who wore masks were also much more likely to keep a 6 ft. distance, before (almost) all of us started wearing masks.

For lots more info on masks, well written and understandable, click here