Appraisal News and Business Tips

Two very different results for appraisers’ opinion of the future

Press release:
CHICAGO (July 17, 2013) – More than three-fourths of U.S. real estate appraisers are very or somewhat positive about the demand for their services over the next one to two years, according to an Appraisal Institute survey released today.

Eighty percent of residential appraisers and 78 percent of commercial appraisers said they are upbeat about their future, according to the survey conducted in May-June by the nation’s largest professional association of real estate appraisers.

“Appraisers have faced a challenging real estate market in recent years, and it’s great to see that so many valuation professionals are feeling optimistic about the future,” said Appraisal Institute President Richard L. Borges II, MAI, SRA.

According to the survey, 95 percent of residential appraisers and 49 percent of commercial appraisers said there is currently more demand for their services than a year ago.

My comments: Hmmm… refi demand has been declining because of increased rates. “Starter” home sales may be affected – harder to qualify for buyers. Don’t know about all cash investors, a big part of the market in many areas. Commercial appraisal fees are still down in many parts of the country. But, it is good to see that some appraisers are optimistic, at least during the survey period of May 31-June 17. The commercial appraiser results are interesting as they are seldom surveyed. The results are similar to what I have observed locally.
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Additional results  from the AI survey (excerpts):

Trainee hiring

Trainee hiring will remain relatively weak for the next one to two – years. While commercial real estate appraisers comprise less than one – third of practicing appraisers in the US, they disproportionately employ more full – time appraiser trainees.

Commercial appraisers also hired more trainees in the past 12 months than residential appraisers did, and commercial appraisers said they would hire more full-time trainees in the next one- to two-years than residential appraisers would hire.

Nearly one-half (49 percent) of commercial appraisers surveyed said they employed one or more full-time appraiser trainees in the past 12 months. By comparison, less than one-third (29 percent) of residential appraisers employed one or more full-time trainees.
„h Of the residential appraisers who employ trainees, an overwhelming majority (93 percent) employs one to three trainees ¡V only 7 percent employs four or more trainees. Comparatively, slightly more than one-fifth (21 percent) of commercial appraisers employ four or more trainees.

Strong majorities of commercial and residential appraisers surveyed (75 percent and 80 percent, respectively) said the number of trainees retained in the past 12 months did not change. Concerning recent new hires, 14 percent of commercial appraisers said the number of trainees retained increased over the past 12 months. Comparatively, only 5 percent of residential appraisers hired more trainees.

Res appraisers – different clients than commercial appraisers
Substantial proportions of commercial appraisers anticipate more demand from financial institutions (47 percent), law firms/lawyers (33 percent), and government agencies (25 percent). Residential appraisers anticipate a different mix of business predominantly from AMCs (36 percent), financial institutions (34 percent), and property owners/buyers directly (33 percent).

Commercial and residential appraising are going in very different paths. These results reflect that dichotomy. Commercial appraisers are seen as professionals. Residential appraisers used to be seen as professionals but are now perceived by way too many clients as not reliable, probably because of the 2008 crash.

Click here to read the full press release
http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/newsadvocacy/news/2013/Real-Estate-Appraisers-Optimistic-About-Future-16-7-13.aspx

Click here to read the full survey results:
http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/newsadvocacy/downloads/fact_sheets/2013-Real-Estate-Appraisal-Outlook-Summary_Jun-28.pdf

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Appraisalport poll – 6/23/13

How do you foresee your workload and income changing in the next year if the government slows its purchase of mortgages and/or interest rates begin to rise?

I see things slowing a lot. 2,083 votes 36%
I see things slowing a little. 2,210 votes 38%
I don’t’ see any real change 1,091 votes 19%
I see things picking-up a little. 218 votes %
I see things picking-up a lot. 139 votes 4%

Total Votes: 5,741

FYI, appraisalport users do residential lending appraisals. www.appraisalport.com
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My comment on the two survey/poll results: Quite a difference between the results of the two surveys!! Of course, the Appraisalport survey asks the opinion if rates rise and mortgage purchases slow, but most everyone sees rates rising. Also, it was a poll, not a survey. Appraisalport users work for lenders. Rates started increasing in May.

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6 Comments
  1. Now, 2016 is a different year. We know a growing in construction market and investment opportunity are better.

  2. In the future, lender can used drones for exterior inspection (measuring and simultaneously taking photos) and then out source it to out of state (India)
    like they are doing now for review appraisal ….

  3. Now in 2015, we see that growth has not been in the way that is predicted. It would be very interesting to analyze factors and events that have slowed the growth of this industry.

  4. The ratio and the growth in the appraisal services compare to the last year is amazing and acceptable.

  5. Yeah i agree, the appriaser services are gone grow more in the future, but it depends upon the area and other factors to value a property.

  6. I enjoy reading you material, even if your “up-beat” experiences in the Bay area are quite different from my area in Central Florida where business is still pretty bad.

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