Newz: Few comps in 2026, NAR Revises Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy
December 12, 2025
What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)
- LIA AD: Can’t Certify the Work
- The problem with comps in 2026 (and the good news)
- Gravity-Defying Colorado Mansion Designed by a Rocket Scientist Hits the Market for $2.7 Million
- Creating a Histogram in Excel: A Guide for Appraisers
- My ad: The AMC Conundrum in the Appraisal Business, By Dave Towne
- NAR Revises Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy Language
- MBA Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier
Appraisers and Local Market Analysis
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The problem with comps in 2026 (and the good news)
By Ryan Lundquist
Excerpts: We have a problem with comps in real estate. There just aren’t that many, and it’s made it much more challenging to figure out value. Yet, this could get a little better in 2026.
WE’VE HAD A COMP PROBLEM FOR THREE YEARS:
We’ve been missing about 30% of the normal number of sales. This is true both locally and nationally. This chart from Calculated Risk shows the gravity of the situation as we’ve been flirting with historically low volume for three years now. And what this means is we’ve had 30% less comps to choose from. Yikes!! This is exactly why it’s been challenging to value properties.
THE BAD NEWS
We’re still poised to have historically low volume until there is a sharper change with affordability. The housing market simply feels stuck, and there isn’t a mechanism to quickly increase the number of buyers. In other words, it’s not going to be a market with robust volume for a long time since it’s going to take years to get buyers and sellers back. Yet, if the projection is correct about next year, it’s going to be something positive to get even a little more volume back. This isn’t standing ovation news, but maybe a golf clap is in order. And for my real estate friends, this is a solid reminder to stay focused.
SOMEONE WAS MAD AT ME FOR USING OLD COMPS
I had someone angry with me recently that I used much older sales as comps in a private appraisal. I tried to explain my rationale, but the person wasn’t willing to listen. Here’s the deal though. If there aren’t any recent comps, then we have two choices. Use older sales and adjust for how the market has changed, or go out further into other markets for more recent sales (doable, but not always ideal). In real estate textbooks, this issue doesn’t come up since there are always three model match sales over the past 90 days, but the real world is different. The truth is valuations today look a bit messy since we don’t have the luxury of ample recent sales. We simply have to do the best with what we have. Remember, when the market changes, how we do things sometimes has to change also.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Some interesting appraiser comments. This is a hot topic for appraisers now. Definitely a problem in most areas. What is your market like?
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Gravity-Defying Colorado Mansion Designed by a Rocket Scientist Hits the Market for $2.7 Million
Excerpts: 4 bedrooms, 3.5+ baths, 5,477 sq.ft. 1.0 Acre Lot, Built in 2020 listed for $2.7 million
A striking midcentury modern-inspired dwelling in Colorado is drawing major attention thanks to its bold design and the revered mind behind it.
Recently listed for $2.7 million, the property at 9398 Ute Drive is the architectural brainchild of aerospace-engineer-turned-designer Daryl Maus, who also owns the property and represents it as the listing agent.
Maus combined his scientific expertise and incredible design talent to create a home that appears to defy gravity, jutting out over its hilltop perch, creating the illusion that it is about to topple down the slope in front of it.
striking midcentury modern-inspired dwelling in Colorado is drawing major attention thanks to its bold design and the revered mind behind it.
Recently listed for $2.7 million, the property at 9398 Ute Drive is the architectural brainchild of aerospace-engineer-turned-designer Daryl Maus, who also owns the property and represents it as the listing agent.
Maus combined his scientific expertise and incredible design talent to create a home that appears to defy gravity, jutting out over its hilltop perch, creating the illusion that it is about to topple down the slope in front of it.
Most mountain homes require steep, icy winter drives, a reality Maus wanted to eliminate. By positioning the garage and front entry directly at the street, he removed the need for a driveway entirely.
But bringing all of the primary public spaces to that same level of the property created a puzzle of its own: the upper floor alone spans nearly 3,000 square feet.
Instead of cutting a deep bench into the hillside—what he calls the “typical bad solution”—Maus designed a sloped, steel-and-concrete pedestal that allows the home’s great room to extend out 37 feet over the landscape below.
“As you build out from the slope, the ground falls away quickly,” he explains. “Without the pedestal, the home would need to be five stories tall.” The result is a floating form that appears to rise above the forest canopy. “There’s no other home like it that I know of,” he says.
To read more, Click Here
To see the listing with an aerial view and 39 photos, Click Here
My comments: Very interesting design for a steep slope. I have appraised many homes on steep hillsides but none that looked like this one.
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Creating a Histogram in Excel: A Guide for Appraisers
Excerpts: As a residential real estate appraiser, have you considered including charts or graphs in your reports? Creating valuable charts like histograms can enhance your market analysis and support your market value conclusions. In this post, we’ll look at histograms and how they can help appraisers. Then, we’ll break down step-by-step instructions on how to create a histogram in Excel.
What is a histogram?
A histogram is a type of chart used for data analysis in Microsoft Excel. It shows the distribution of one variable, with the values of that variable split into specified ranges called bins. In real estate, histograms come in handy for analyzing variables such as lot size, property age, gross living area (GLA), and sale price.
How can histograms help appraisers?
A histogram is an excellent tool for analyzing residential real estate markets. Creating histograms in Excel can help appraisers not only analyze market trends, but also enhance their appraisal reports with visual data.
Appraisers can use histograms to:
Analyze the characteristics of a local housing market to understand what’s typical within that market area
- Demonstrate the subject property’s position in the local market
- Help determine search criteria for comparable sales
- Reinforce their market value conclusions
- Visually enhance their appraisal reports, making them easier for the intended users to read and understand
Steps to create a histogram in Excel – Detailed Example
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Good explanation and a sample histogram setup.
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The AMC Conundrum in the Appraisal Business,
In the December 2025 issue of Appraisal Today
By Dave Towne
Excerpts:
New URAR/UAD Process
Another conundrum to this situation is the latest evolution in appraising
residential properties for mortgage loan purposes. That’s the New
URAR/UAD process which is very near to being implemented US-wide early
in 2026.
Those 25 or so of us GSE approved instructors for the ‘New URAR’
reports could see at the end of our mandatory training session in Sept. 2024
that the new reports would require the appraiser to spend additional time in
the field when doing property inspections.
I don’t think this original opinion has changed much, if any, as we have
instructed multiple classes to hundreds of appraisers across the US this
year. Appraisers see this as realistic during the class, based on the course
evaluations turned in.
Fees for New URAR/UAD
But the real issue with this conundrum is the attitude of lenders and
their AMC’s about the increased time involved doing these new reports,
coupled with the necessity for the appraiser to acquire a tablet with which to
do the variable data base collection process while in the field.
The attitude may be that “it’s no big deal” because people tend to resist
change and just accept the status quo because it’s easier to do that. I’m
concerned that the AMC’s present ‘cost sheet’ won’t change, at least initially,
for the New URAR reports. This could lead to fewer independent appraisers
willing to work for AMC’s.
Can the present conundrum be modified? Can things change?
Perhaps I’m too much the optimist, but I believe it can. However,
appraisers have to be strong enough to stand their ground and insist that
fees earned back in 2009 are insufficient now.
Lenders have to understand that the upcoming modification to the
appraisal data gathering and reporting process will take more appraiser time.
That added time needs to be compensated.
Meaning borrowers should pay more for ‘the appraisal.’
And AMC’s need to modify their present attitude of insisting
independent vendor appraisers must accept the same low fee per report
paid to the AMC staff appraiser who has the advantage of additional benefits
incorporated into their compensation package.
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NAR Revises Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy Language
FROM NAR DOCUMENT – MLS Policy Risk Assessment PAG Recommendations
Recommendation #5: To repeal Policy Statement 7.55, Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy Language Being Repealed:
MLSs may, as a matter of local discretion, make limited participation in MLS available to all brokers (principals) and firms comprised of brokers (principals) and to licensed or certified real estate appraisers (principals) and firms comprised of licensed or certified real estate appraisers.
Limitations on participatory rights, if any, shall be determined locally. (Amended 11/04) O Rationale: Repealing the policy will promote MLS’s making independent local decisions.
Other Considerations: MLS PAG members expressed a need for education, guidance, and messaging related to the deletion of this policy statement, and a local MLS’s decision to provide access to non-member Participants.
To read more from NAR, Click Here
My comments: I got my real estate broker license in 1986, primarily to get MLS access. I joined NAR to participate in local MLS to promote my appraisal business. I was on the local MLS committee.
My local MLSs have always allowed licensed real estate brokers to join MLS without joining NAR. There was a lawsuit by a licensed broker who did not want to be required to join NAR who won the case.
What is your MLS is doing?
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Is Commercial Property Appraisal Right for You?
Excerpts: Thinking about a career in real estate appraisal? Commercial property appraisal offers a path filled with intellectual challenge, solid earning potential and diverse opportunities. Whether you’re a prospective appraiser or a current trainee exploring different certification levels and specializations, this guide walks you through what a career in commercial property valuation entails, why it may be a compelling choice, and how to get started.
What Is Commercial Property Appraisal?
Commercial real estate appraisal is the process of determining the value of properties that generate or support economic activity, including offices, retail, multifamily housing, industrial facilities, land for development, and specialized assets such as hospitality, healthcare, and mixed-use projects, as well as many other property types. Unlike residential appraisals, which focus primarily on single-family homes or small multi-family dwellings, commercial assignments require a deeper understanding of financial performance and market dynamics.
Why Specialize in Commercial Appraisal?
Becoming a Certified General Appraiser opens the door to a wide variety of job opportunities and specializations. People choose to work in commercial vs. residential property appraisal for the following reasons:
- Higher income
- Challenging work
- Wider range of property types
- More opportunities for diversification and specialization
- Enhanced job security
- Commercial appraisers typically earn more than their residential counterparts. They enjoy a wider variety of assignments that are both financially rewarding and intellectually challenging.
- With a shrinking appraisal workforce and steady demand, new entrants to the commercial appraisal profession are well-positioned for success.
What skills are important?
You need strong data analysis, financial modeling, and report writing skills, as well as attention to detail, independence, and comfort with field inspections and tech tools.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I started appraising at an assessor’s office in Northern California in 1975. At that time you started in residential and, if interested, you could move into commercial appraising. I took a basic commercial class from SREA around 1977 and liked it. That was the same system used by lenders – start in residential. In the 1990s “tracking” started. Moving from residential to commercial was more difficult.
When licensing started I did both commercial and residential in my business. I took the certified general exam, which I was not difficult as I had been doing commercial appraisals and had taken commercial appraisal classes.
You need to have good math skills. My first class in high school was algebra. I really liked it. Commercial focuses on income and expenses. You must know how to use spreadsheets. I got an MBA , specializing in finance, in 1980 which greatly increased my appraisal expertise. When I started working on my MAI designation, I challenged most of the classes. and had no problems passing the financial analysis exam.
There are no GSEs telling you how to do appraisal reports. No UAD 3.6 or any other “modernization”. Very few commercial appraisals are requested by AMCs.
You will be probably be using Word and Excel. You need to know how to use both. you also may be using special software for doing commercial appraisal reports.
Many self employed residential appraisers, while learning how to do commercial appraisals, continue doing residential appraisals “on the side” to keep money coming in.
I have always done both residential and commercial appraisals in my business. When I started it in 1986, there were few appraisers left. Mortgage rates were over 15% between 1980 and 1985. I was swamped with residential lending appraisals. I finally stopped doing them in 2005. Volume of work was way to cyclical for me. I only did non-lender appraisals.
Residential: only 1-4 units. Wide variety of homes. Reports done on forms. Very good data, especially MLS. Does not take long to complete a report as compared with commercial. (UAD 3.6 – you fill out a longer report with more data). Need basic math skills.
Commercial – Higher fees than residential. You must learn how to appraise many types of properties. Much more time required for an appraisal as compared with residential 1-4 units. Advanced math skills. Data access is very inferior to residential MLS data.
A good place to read commercial appraiser comments is r/appraisal on reddit. Search for commercial in the upper left. See what the appraisers say about where to work, etc. Also it has many residential posts.
How to get a supervisor
If you do non-lender appraisals, an excellent way is to give your commercial referrals to a commercial appraiser you know. Then ask if you can help on the commercial appraisals. Apartment appraisals are good for residential appraisers as you do already do 2-4 unit properties.
In my opinion, 2-4 unit residential are more difficult to appraise than apartment properties which are about the income and expense. More complications with 2-4 units – owner occupied, relative that does not pay rent, etc.
I have written 3 articles on doing commercial appraisals in my monthly Appraisal Today since 2022 and published one article written by another commercial appraiser, Denis Desaix, SRA, MAI. He started in residential appraising. Over the years I have written about residential to commercial many times.
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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.
Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.
My comments: Rates are going up and down. We are all waiting for rates to drop lower in 2025.
Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier
WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 10, 2025) — Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 49 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 14 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 32 percent compared with the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 58.2 percent of total applications from 53.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.0 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 20.2 percent from 18.3 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 16.4 percent from 15.0 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.3 percent from the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.33 percent from 6.32 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) increased to 6.46 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.08 percent from 6.12 percent, with points decreasing to 0.72 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.71 percent from 5.73 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 5.51 percent from 5.40 percent, with points increasing to 0.78 from 0.23 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
Please Note:
MBA Offices will be closed beginning on Thursday, December 25, 2025 and will reopen on Friday, January 2, 2026. Due to the office closing and holidays, the results for weeks ending December 26, 2025 and January 2, 2026 will both be released on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
The survey covers U.S. closed-end residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today
1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501
Phone: 510-865-8041
Email: ann@appraisaltoday.com
Online: www.appraisaltoday.com
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