Appraisal News and Business Tips

5-4-17 Newz .Appraiser Sues Coester. Regression Depression .Google Docs Phishing Scam

Appraiser sues Coester – email hacking

 Source: Appraiserville by Jonathan Miller

With links to court documents
 
Mark Skapinetz v. CoesterVMS.com Inc. and Brian Coester
Excerpt: Do you like to read John Grisham books? I have a story that is much better. It is about a residential fee appraiser in Georgia who filed suit against what the appraisal industry sees as the most notorious AMCs out there and its owner. The appraiser provides compelling tangible evidence with his claim that his email was hacked by the AMC.
… The complaint reads better than “The Firm.”
http://www.millersamuel.com/note/april-28-2017  Scroll down to appraiserville 
 
Dustin Harris Interview with the appraiser:http://appraisersblogs.com/mark-skapinetz-free-appraisers 
More analysis, opinions, and links to documents plus comments
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Regression Depression

Why is it so easy? Why is it so hard?

By George Dell, MAI, SRA, ASA

Excerpt:
Regression is nothing but a mathematical formula.  How can it be wrong?
Not all that complicated actually – find the slope and intercept of a line, given a bunch of data points.  Easy.  I don’t even need to know how to minimize the square root of a bunch of squared numbers . . .  just push the “regress” button, and the answer pops out.  It’s just math!
Yet why does the answer seem ok sometimes – and not so ok other times?  The reason:  Regression is an algorithm – “a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer.”  The real question: Does the regression algorithm answer the question asked?  The analyst, the appraiser, must know when and how to apply regression to the problem.  It is a tool.  A hammer is a tool.  You can cut a board in half with a hammer – but it ain’t pretty!

My comment: Another great blog post from George Dell! Check out his other blog posts. FYI, George periodically writes longer articles for the paid Appraisal Today

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Appraisal Today! No Appraisal Tomorrow?

Will AVMs Take Over and Eliminate Appraisers? By Barry Bates 

In the May, 2017 issue of the Paid Appraisal Today.
Excerpt: The quasi-provocative title of Barry Bates’ article in the May 2017 issue of Appraisal Today. It’s “quasi” because the central issue, the livelihood threat represented by AVMs, has been around for at least 20 years. It’s provocative because Barry’s research suggests that AVMs, bolstered by artificial intelligence, satellite overlays and more robust attributive data, are a bigger threat than ever. (note: yes, there is some humor and sarcasm, typical Barry Bates!)
Click here to go to the brief intro and post your comments!!
To read the full excerpt, plus 2+ years of previous issues, subscribe to the paid Appraisal Today.
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Rates Have Disproportionate Impact on Refi Pool

Excerpt: In any given week during the quarter, Black Knight says, “relatively small interest rate movements have increased or decreased the size of the refinanceable population by as much as 20 percent.” For example, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped below 4.0 percent on April 20 and that increased the refinance pool to 4.1 million, up 46 percent from the 2.8 million borrowers in the pool in mid-March. Still, that pool was half of its size last October when rates were under 3.5 percent.

My comment: Interesting graph plus HELOC analysis and graph.
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CoreLogic’s net income down by 54% compared with one year ago – 20% decline in mortgage loans

My comment: keep a very close watch on your AMC accounts receivable. Be aggressive. Don’t lose the money you are owed. Corelogic and its AMCs can afford income decline, but not independent AMCs.

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Google Docs Phishing Scam Beware!

I got one today “from” an appraiser I know!!
Excerpt: IF YOU GET a Google Doc link in your inbox today, scrutinize it carefully before you click-even if it looks like it comes from someone you trust. A nasty phishing scam that impersonates a Google Docs request has swept the internet today, including a decent chunk of media companies. You’ve heard “think before you click” a million times, but it really could save you from a whole lot of hassle.
 
My comment: It had a very strange “to” address, hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh@mailinator.com, so I did not open it.  Many years ago I opened one “from” an appraiser I know and  it destroyed all my jpegs so I am very cautious!! If I am not sure, I reply and ask the sender if the email was intended for me.
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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 
 
Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to https://www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 3, 2017) – Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2017.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 41.6 percent of total applications from 44.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 8.4 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 10.4 percent from 10.0 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 10.8 percent from 10.9 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.8 percent from the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) increased to 4.23 percent from 4.20 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $424,100) increased to 4.18 percent from 4.15 percent, with points decreasing to 0.23 from 0.27 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.06 percent from 4.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.24 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.51 percent from 3.46 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate remained unchanged from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.29 percent from 3.22 percent, with points decreasing to 0.14 from 0.18 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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