Newz: Few comps in 2026, NAR Revises Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy
December 12, 2025
What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)
- LIA AD: Can’t Certify the Work
- The problem with comps in 2026 (and the good news)
- Gravity-Defying Colorado Mansion Designed by a Rocket Scientist Hits the Market for $2.7 Million
- Creating a Histogram in Excel: A Guide for Appraisers
- My ad: The AMC Conundrum in the Appraisal Business, By Dave Towne
- NAR Revises Nonmember Broker/Appraiser Access Policy Language
- MBA Mortgage applications increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier
Appraisers and Local Market Analysis
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The problem with comps in 2026 (and the good news)
By Ryan Lundquist
Excerpts: We have a problem with comps in real estate. There just aren’t that many, and it’s made it much more challenging to figure out value. Yet, this could get a little better in 2026.
WE’VE HAD A COMP PROBLEM FOR THREE YEARS:
We’ve been missing about 30% of the normal number of sales. This is true both locally and nationally. This chart from Calculated Risk shows the gravity of the situation as we’ve been flirting with historically low volume for three years now. And what this means is we’ve had 30% less comps to choose from. Yikes!! This is exactly why it’s been challenging to value properties.
THE BAD NEWS
We’re still poised to have historically low volume until there is a sharper change with affordability. The housing market simply feels stuck, and there isn’t a mechanism to quickly increase the number of buyers. In other words, it’s not going to be a market with robust volume for a long time since it’s going to take years to get buyers and sellers back. Yet, if the projection is correct about next year, it’s going to be something positive to get even a little more volume back. This isn’t standing ovation news, but maybe a golf clap is in order. And for my real estate friends, this is a solid reminder to stay focused.
SOMEONE WAS MAD AT ME FOR USING OLD COMPS
I had someone angry with me recently that I used much older sales as comps in a private appraisal. I tried to explain my rationale, but the person wasn’t willing to listen. Here’s the deal though. If there aren’t any recent comps, then we have two choices. Use older sales and adjust for how the market has changed, or go out further into other markets for more recent sales (doable, but not always ideal). In real estate textbooks, this issue doesn’t come up since there are always three model match sales over the past 90 days, but the real world is different. The truth is valuations today look a bit messy since we don’t have the luxury of ample recent sales. We simply have to do the best with what we have. Remember, when the market changes, how we do things sometimes has to change also.
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My comments: Some interesting appraiser comments. This is a hot topic for appraisers now. Definitely a problem in most areas. What is your market like?
