Mortgage forecast – loans predicted to drop 30% in 2014

Mortgage forecast – loans predicted to drop 30% in 2014
Mortgage Bankers Association, September 2013

Commentary (9/24/13)

Excerpt:
We expect housing starts and home sales to continue to
increase, as home prices continue their recovery. Rising rates have already caused refinance activity to drop significantly, but home buyers who are able to and need to purchase a home will likely adjust accordingly in the current rate environment to complete their purchase. The Fed’s delay in tapering asset purchases has pushed rates down slightly, but we expect
that this is just a pause and rates should continue to increase in the coming months.

Our forecast is for mortgage originations to total $1.6 trillion in 2013, with $989 billion in refinances and $616 billion in purchases. Originations will drop to $1.1 trillion in 2014 as refinances drop to $388 billion, while purchase originations should continue to increase to $703 billion.

2013 actuals and forecast – mortgage loans – in billions
Q1       Q2      Q3       Q4
482     494     369     260

2014 forecast
Q1       Q2    Q3    Q4
251     283     290     267

Interest rates – in percent
2013 actuals and forecast
Q1      Q2    Q3    Q4
3.5     3.7     4.6     4.8
2014 forecast
Q1      Q2    Q3    Q4
4.8     4.9     5.0     5.1

For the full MBA finance commentary, go to
http://mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/85717.htm