Is There a Market Correction on Its Way?
by Steven W. Vehmeier
Excerpt: When will the market correction arrive?
I have no idea, but there will be warning signs, and that’s what this blog article is about. Fluctuations in market activity are common, but unseasonal and ongoing changes of any of the signs listed below can often be red flags. Additional indicators can be some of the factors that led up to the last market bust; there are plenty of articles online with which to familiarize yourself.
What will be the early signs?
Some early warning signs of housing market correction are:
A) Listing inventory in MLS starts to climb steadily. Increasing inventory is generally a sign that buyers have stopped buying (due to prices being too high or a lack of consumer confidence), or there are just fewer ready, willing, and able buyers in the marketplace.
B) Days on Market for listings increase. This event is usually linked to item (A) above.
C) Listing prices begin to stabilize, and reductions in listing prices become more common, which is a sign the market is becoming saturated…
So many appraisers missed the early signs in the last boom’s bust that resulted in claims (valid or not) of over-valuations followed by lawsuits, E&O insurance claims, and regulatory disciplinary actions. Maybe this time, we should pay closer attention to the indicators…
To read lots more tips, click here
My comments: Most Excellent list of what to look for. Very comprehensive. I have been appraising during many up and down cycles in Northern California, starting in the late 1970s at 2%+ per month, followed by a crash in 1980 when interest rates went up to 15%+. Those were the days when lenders told appraisers not to make time adjustments!! Even though we don’t like the 1004mc, it forced lenders and appraisers to look at price changes.
No one knows when the increasing market peaks, but there are signs of a decline, listed in the blog post above. I sold my house in March 2008 and did not anticipate the market crash a few months later. I was very lucky. There had been some modest price declines for about 6 months previously.
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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on liability, Market declining?, Humor, unusual homes, USPAP, mortgage origination stats, etc.
The Famous 47-Year-Old Mushroom House of Bethesda, MD
This unique home was bought by Edward and Frances Garfinkle back in 1967.
– The home has added an element of awe for those passing along the otherwise monotonous neighborhoods in the area.
– Even at nighttime, this magical home gets plenty of attention.
As Edward Garfinkle stated, “One good thing is that it probably slows the traffic down on our street. The cars don’t go flying by as much as in the rest of the neighborhood. It’s better than a speed bump.”
– The renovation by Roy Mason (called “The Marshmallow Architect” by The Washington Post) lasted three years. Probably because it took him that long to finish reading the Lord of the Rings for inspiration.
Per Zillow, it has 6 bd, 5 ba, 5,500 sqft
Sold for $1,520,000 on 09/12/18
To read more and see more interesting photos, click here
My comments: Say yes or no to this appraisal? Monotonous neighborhoods except for this home? Comps, listings?? See Men in Black below.
The Men In Black Were Always Watching
Short and fun!!
By David Hyman
Excerpt: Have you ever tried to do an appraisal for a house so big that you could literally get lost doing the exterior measurements? What about one where the seller insisted on absolutely no interior photos? What about an appraisal where the house itself had several bodyguards? I have – just once. My advice? If a client offers you such a job, politely turn it down.
This appraisal inspection began along the Sunset Strip. After traveling down a seemingly endless private driveway, I was greeted by two men in dark clothing – almost a Men In Black (MIB) situation. However, they weren’t wearing suits, and they weren’t funny – but they did have those earpieces. Before they said a word, I told them who I was and why I was there. They conferred for a minute and said that I could exit the vehicle. What a relief…
To read more, click here
My comment: Just Say No? Or… you could say Yes and Have a Great Appraisal Story for the Internet!! Short and fun!!Getting too many ad-only emails?
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Your Appraiser Liability Risk. What you Need to Know!!
We are all swamped with appraisals now! Errors can occur. Every appraiser sometimes makes a mistake, such as a typo. Every issue of the Appraisal Today Newsletter has good practical tips on how to stay out of trouble!!
Advice from Claudia Galione, Esq.
- Vacant Land: A Nightmare for an Appraiser!
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- Don’t Assume You Did it “Right” the First Time We all re-appraise properties sometimes. Mistakes to avoid.
- Rules are made to be followed. What happens when a claim is filed. Good case study.
Advice from Tim Andersen, MAI
- I’m Just Going to Check the Box – Highest and Best Use. What Fannie, Textbooks, and USPAP Say
- The AMC/Lender Will Whistle a Jaunty Tune as it Throws You Under the Bus What state boards look for. Case studies of actual complaints.
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The ASC (Appraisal Subcommittee)Fall Roundtable will closely examine issues of bias and inequities facing the appraisal industry and how to chart a path forward.
About this event
On September 22, 2021, the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) will convene the ASC Fall 2021 Roundtable: Building a More Equitable Appraisal System, to address historical and contemporary factors that have contributed to the inequities challenging the appraisal system today. We urge you to join us for this groundbreaking event, which will convene leaders in government, finance, real-estate, non-profits, and communities impacted by the appraisal system. The full lineup of speakers will be announced in the coming week.
The ASC Fall 2021 Roundtable will take place virtually on September 22 from 11:00 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET (8:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. PT) and will include featured speakers, audience question and answer sessions, theme-based concurrent breakouts, and closing comments outlining next steps.
To read more, click here
My comments: I signed up. Free and only 1.5 hours. It will be recorded so you can watch it later. I don’t know if you have to register to watch/listen to the recording. I always register, to be sure.
Riverfront Castle in Montana
Excerpts: Closed off from the rest of the world by a moat, drawbridge, and towering fortress walls, the castle features interiors that open up in the back. While the opening doesn’t afford the safety you’d expect from a massive fortification, it does offer spectacular views of the trees and the river. Those vistas balance out the more extreme medieval features of the home.
$880,000 (pending sale) 2,91 sqft, 12.66 acre lot
4782 W Fork Rd, Darby, MT 59829
To read more and see 63 photos, including strange interiors, click here
2022 7-hr USPAP Update Course
By Dave Towne
Excerpts: Appraisers, if your license renews in 2022, you will need to take the ‘new’ USPAP 7hr Update course.
The Update class you have already taken for the 2020-21 book, which has been extended to Dec. 31, 2022, cannot be used for CE credit again.
However, I’m somewhat confused as to the effective dates of this ‘new’ Update class. It says “2022-23,” which implies it will be valid through the end of (or into?) 2023.
It seems to me that the Appraiser Qualifications Board needs to clarify exactly the effective dates of this ‘new’ Update class for 2022-23, being released another month from now.
To read the details and the Q&As, click here
My comment: I renew in June 2022 and was hoping I would not have to repeat the same boring class again!! Maybe there will be something new to fill up much of the 7 hours, but I doubt it. These changes give me a headache! I am so glad Dave wrote about it.
HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. I have been following this data since 1993. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to https://www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm or send an email to email@example.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier
WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 8, 2021) – Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 3, 2021.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage application volume fell last week to its lowest level since mid-July, as mortgage rates have stayed just above 3% for several weeks. Refinance volume has been moderating, while purchase volume continues to be lower than expected given the lack of homes on the market,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Economic data has sent mixed signals, with slower job growth but a further drop in the unemployment rate in August. We expect that further improvements will lead to a tapering of Fed MBS purchases by the end of the year, which should put some upward pressure on mortgage rates.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 66.8 percent of total applications from 66.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 2.5 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 10.9 percent from 11.2 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 10.4 percent from 9.7 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged from 0.5 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) remained unchanged at 3.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $548,250) increased to 3.14 percent from 3.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.30 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.07 percent from 3.09 percent, with points increasing to 0.30 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 2.37 percent from 2.39 percent, with points decreasing to 0.26 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.56 percent from 2.80 percent, with points increasing to 0.17 from 0.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today
1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501