FHA: Cosmetic vs. MPR Repairs

Cosmetic vs. MPR Repairs: Guidance for FHA Appraisers

By: McKissock

Excerpts: If you are appraising a property that needs some cosmetic repairs but meets FHA minimum property requirements (MPR) in its current condition, you should make the appraisal “as-is.” Here is some guidance on cosmetic repairs vs. MPR repairs.

Topics include:

  • When can an FHA appraisal be completed “as-is” vs. “subject to”?
  • Cosmetic repairs Examples
  • MPR repairs Examples
  • Conditions that require inspection Examples

To read more, click here

My comments: If you do FHA appraisals, read this blog post. Photos and lots of examples. I quit doing FHA appraisals in the mid-1980s because of the inspection requirements compared to conventional appraisals, that did not have the requirement.

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on appraisal “modernization”, bias hearing, bad appraiser, USPAP, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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Appraiser pleads guilty in $1.3B fraud scheme

Walter Roberts II of North Carolina faces five-year maximum sentence

Excerpts: An appraiser in North Carolina is set to face the music after conspiring in a massive $1.3 billion tax fraud scheme.

… Roberts faces a maximum of five years in prison and will be sentenced in six months.

The fraud started in 2008, one year after Roberts became a licensed appraiser, according to court documents and statements. In 2007, he started appraising conservation easements, which are specified areas of land earmarked for environmental conservation. Owners with conservation easements can claim an income tax deduction.

From 2008 to 2019, Roberts fraudulently inflated the value of at least 18 different easements by violating industry norms and making false statements. He also manipulated or used manipulated data to hit a target appraisal value communication by unnamed co-conspirators to achieve a certain tax deduction.

The impact of the fraud is staggering, especially since Roberts inflated the value of some appraisals by at least 70 percent…

To read more, click here

My comments: For more info, google his name and add appraiser. Conservation easement appraisals are a definite risk for appraisers. Over time, many have been significantly over-valued per the IRS. They are not easy to do. I decided not to do them many years ago. Best to do a lot of them and become an expert or none.

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Glorious Gilded Age Mansion for $29.9M Is Washington DC’s Most Expensive Home

Excerpts: Completed in 1881, the 23,600-square-foot mansion is divided among commercial spaces on the first two floors. A residential penthouse is situated on the top two floors.

A three-year renovation, ending in 2009, converted the upper floors into the 7,000-square-foot penthouse. The space offers four bedrooms, five full bathrooms, and lots of living and entertaining space.

“There’s an atrium, multiple sitting rooms off of the atrium, a humongous dining room, and a humongous living room, so yes, I would say there’s plenty of entertaining space,” Heider (listing agent) says.

“There’s nothing [else] in this city that offers a private rooftop pool overlooking one of the most charming circles in the city,” Heider says, adding that the pool and accompanying outdoor kitchen are only for Blaine Mansion penthouse residents.

“Imagine yourself being able to go out on your rooftop and be in the pool, drinking a margarita and overlooking DuPont Circle. Right now, nothing compares to it.”

The property also comes with 14-vehicle parking capacity.

To read more and see lots of photos, click here 

My comment: Really stands out from the modernized buildings nearby! I lived in Washington, DC, until I was 9 years old. My mom used to take me regularly to Dupont Circle to play. I don’t remember much about what it was like there, but I remember Dupont Circle Park.

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Purchase and Sale Agreements

By Tim Andersen, MAI

Excerpt: Should appraisers get a copy of the purchase and sale agreement?

Some appraisers feel that lenders should not provide them with the purchase and sale contract. Then that contract does not serve to color, cloud, or otherwise bias a value opinion.

Let’s take a look at it from basically both sides. Appraisers analyze the purchase and sale contract to amass and verify data to have detailed data to use in the analytics of future assignments.

Purchase and sale agreements are also a great source of data relative to the subject, which might serve as a verified and personally inspected comp in a future assignment. Remember, we rarely get to inspect comparables.

Over time, a great deal of research has indicated that well over 90% of appraisals come in at or above the purchase and sale contract. This suggests that appraisers are indeed letting that contract price function as a target the lender expects the appraiser to reach and then support.

We all know this is true.

To read lots more about this topic, plus 2+ years of previous issues, subscribe to the paid Appraisal Today.

If this article helped you understand how to analyze purchase and sales agreements, it is worth the subscription price!

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If you have any comments or info on any topics, please hit the reply button!! I’m always looking for something new ;>

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Jonathan Miller testifies at ASC hearing on appraisal issues: bias and barriers to entry 

C-SPAN Video is approximately 3 hours with a 17-minute break

The Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) held a second hearing on challenges facing the appraisal industry, including barriers for entering the profession and racial bias in home appraisals. The panel’s first hearing on such topics occurred in January 2023.

To listen and read the hearing transcript click here

My comments on the video: Usually, on these long hearings, it is hard to stay awake waiting until the section you want to hear. This video is very easy to use, plus text is available. You can search for people and speakers. 6 video segments on specific topics.

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Jonathan Miller on his experience at the hearing

Excerpts: On Friday morning, I was one of five expert witnesses (and the only as an appraiser) to testify on the topic of appraisal bias in front of the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC). The witnesses waited together in the green room, plus additional TAF staff. We had a delightful conversation – everyone was very friendly and a pleasure to be with, given the adversarial nature of our looming testimony.

It’s a three-hour hearing, but if you are connected to the appraisal industry in any way, I encourage you to listen. You can hear my opening statement at about the 26-minute mark. The text on the C-SPAN website was generated from unedited closed captions. Here was my formal statement, but since the timing was strictly limited to 5 minutes, I read this abbreviated version, which in hindsight, was better and more to the point. (Editor note: links are in the text

Thoughts…

Morgan Williams, General Counsel, National Fair Housing Alliance – He was a compelling witness – he drove home that he wanted access to anonymized loan-level data to determine the potential valuation bias.

Angela G. Jemmott, Bureau Chief, California Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers, Member of the Association of Appraiser Regulatory Officials. She was a powerhouse of testimony, advocating practicum solutions in addition to PAREA.

To read a lot more of Jonathan Millers interesting comments, click here

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Rocket Mortgage offers new 1% down home-loan program

Excerpts: Rocket Mortgage recently introduced ONE+, a new 1% down home loan program that will dramatically increase access to homeownership for millions of low-to-moderate-income earning Americans, the company has announced.

With ONE+, Rocket Mortgage stated that a homebuyer is only required to make a down payment of 1% of the purchase price and they will cover the remaining 2% needed to reach the required threshold for conventional loans. In addition to reducing upfront costs, Rocket Mortgage says ONE+ completely eliminates the expensive monthly mortgage insurance fee for the client —which is traditionally required if the buyer places less than 20% down on their purchase.

Designed to help everyday Americans achieve homeownership, Rocket Mortgage stated that ONE+ is available to homebuyers purchasing single-family homes—including manufactured homes—whose income is equal to or less than 80% of their area median income (AMI). With this expansive AMI eligibility, the company estimates that more than 90 million people can meet the income requirements for this program—based on publicly available income data.

To read more, click here

My comment: Hopefully, they will use full appraisals because of the increased risk!

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The Next Generation of Appraisals: Revolutionizing Real Estate Valuation with Computer Vision

By Tony Pistilli

Excerpts: Before you get too worried and quit reading, let’s all agree computer vision is unlikely to replace appraisers. I believe it will only make them more accurate and more efficient. Think of computer vision as a calculator. Sure, you can use pencil and paper and divide 1,024 by 82 and come to the correct number, but there are calculators that allow us to do that much faster and with more consistent accuracy – that’s what computer vision will do for appraisers.

While computer vision holds tremendous potential for real estate appraisers, I believe several potential challenges need to be addressed. The need for standardized data formats is paramount, consistent taxonomies in MLS, and between inspection forms and appraisals. Additionally, ensuring the proper use of computer vision technologies and maintaining transparency in the valuation process are critical aspects that should be carefully addressed by state, federal and financial institution regulators and also addressed in USPAP.

To read more, plus the 20+ most negative appraiser comments, click here

My comments: The accuracy of any AI depends on the data.

As we all know, MLS, Public records, etc. are not always accurate for a property. AI has to be trained on good data.

MLS videos and photos taken by agents tend to leave out any defects or problems. They are sales persons, of course. They disclose them in the seller’s disclosure statement, hopefully! I wonder if the home would be overvalued?

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, click here.  

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.

My comments: Rates are going up and down. Some appraisers are very busy, and others have little work. Varies widely around the country.

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Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 24, 2023) — Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 19, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 44 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications declined almost five percent last week as borrowers remained sensitive to higher rates. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.69 percent, the highest level since March,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Since rates have been so volatile and for-sale inventory still scarce, we have yet to see sustained growth in purchase applications. Refinance activity remains limited, with the refinance index falling to its lowest level in two months and more than 40 percent below last year’s pace.”

Added Kan, “Investors remained attuned to the uncertainty around the U.S. debt ceiling and communication from several Federal Reserve officials last week, which sent Treasury yields higher, along with mortgage rates. Economic data released over the past week have also pointed to a still-resilient economy. The housing market received positive data on new residential construction – which is seen as a key solution to the lack of housing inventory.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 27.4 percent of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.7 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 12.5 percent from 12.0 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 12.5 percent from 12.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.69 percent from 6.57 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $726,200) increased to 6.57 percent from 6.46 percent, with points increasing to 0.57 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 6.56 percent from 6.39 percent, with points increasing to 1.24 from 0.97 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.15 percent from 5.96 percent, with points increasing to 0.72 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 5.73 percent from 5.71 percent, with points increasing to 1.19 from 1.10 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today
1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501
Phone 510-865-8041
Email  ann@appraisaltoday.com
www.appraisaltoday.com

Appraiser Professional Goals

1-6-23 NEWSLETTER

Appraisers Share Their Top Professional Goals for 2023

By: McKissock (Survey)

Excerpts:

  • Maintain my current business (26%)
  • Earn a designation or certification (16%)
  • Grow my business (15%)
  • Prepare for retirement (12%)

“I would like to turn over my appraisal business to my daughter, who is certified.”

Should have retired last year but put it off due to the high amount of requests!”

After 23 years in appraising, which was very beneficial for me and my customers, I’m preparing for retirement.”

  • Achieve a better work-life balance (10%)
  • Other (6%)

To read more, including personal comments from appraisers, click here.

My comments: The post has links to some topics above with many tips. I have recently been writing about many of these topics since the market changed.

I write about non-lender work, staying up when business is down, retirement planning, and more in my monthly newsletter. I will be writing soon about upgrading to Certified General. I have always done both commercial and residential. My business has been much more stable as I can shift between them when the appraisal markets change, especially fees.

What are you planning to do in 2023? Now is the time to learn all the features in your MLS and forms software, upgrade your skills by taking seminars and classes, and more.

The future of residential appraising

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

To read more of this long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on USPAP and non-traditional appraisals, Non-lender appraisals, reos, tear downs, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

Read more!!

Reconsideration of Value and Appraisers

How to Respond to ROV Requests: Updated Guidance

By Greg Stephens, SRA, AI-RRS

Excerpts: Suggested protocols for responding to Reconsideration of Value requests

When you receive an ROV request, some recommended steps to take include:

1. Maintain USPAP compliance – Confirm the ROV request came from your client, either directly or through the client’s AMC, acting as an agent for the client, or other party designated as an agent by the client. The importance of this cannot be overstated. Appraisers are still required to comply with USPAP when responding to an ROV request, including the confidential nature of assignment results.

2. Identify ROV content to determine next steps – take the time to analyze the content of the ROV to determine what specifically is being requested of you (the appraiser) and what level of information will be needed to respond to the requestor of the ROV. This is an opportune time to maintain a professional demeanor and not react to an ROV request as if it is an affront to your competency or experience. After receiving an ROV request, send an acknowledgement of receipt and advise the client that the ROV request will be analyzed and responded to in a timely manner.

To read more, click here

Click here to listen to Tim Andersen, MAI’s podcast, “Reconsiderations of Value: Satan’s Own Seed, Right?” (Podcast 9.5 minutes) on ROVs, included in a 12-21 issue of this newsletter, so it may look familiar to you.

My comments: ROVs are a PITA for many appraisers. Very well written and practical. Greg Stephens is a very experienced appraiser and reviewer. He worked in management positions for several large AMCs.

Reconsideration of Appraised Value

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

To read more of this long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on Value Reconciliation, non-lender appraisals, liabililty, USPAP, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

Read more!!

Weird Real Estate Agent Photos for Appraisers

 

57 Weird Real Estate Agent Photos

Excerpt: Yes, many great real estate photos really capture the house. This post though is a tribute to the other kind that we’ve all seen – hilariously terrible MLS photos.

From horror movie-esque semi-abandoned homes for rent to home decor that overshot “unique”, the owners and agents behind these funny ads thought things were perfect just as they were for their photos and open houses.

Caption for Photo Above: That way, you can still work on the garden even if it’s raining!

To read more, click here

My comment: We all love these photos! If used in the MLS on a comp, makes you wonder how it sold ;> Or an expired listing that didn’t sell. Data for those fixer homes (contractor specials).

More Terrible Real Estate Agent Photos for Appraisers

Appraising Weird Stuff is Challenging!

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

To read more of this long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on USPAP Update Mistakes on Bias, Real Estate Market analysis, the FED raises interest rates, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

Read more!!

Appraisals and Water Frontage

Appraisals and Water Frontage

Steven W. Vehmeier

Excerpts:

What about an off-site water view?

In a large townhouse-style condominium complex, there were only eight units that had water views. The view was of a section of the Intracoastal Waterway. It was from the second floor only, and over a six-foot high concrete block wall and across an open field. The builder charged more for those units because of the partial view.

My research discovered that the open field had just been purchased by a group that was building a four-level high-and-dry boat storage building. That bit of news made quite a few folks very unhappy and had a distinct impact on the value of those units. The moral of this story is that when you see open land between your subject property and the water, review ownership and the local building and zoning department’s comprehensive land use plan.

Water rights play a major role

With many water fronting properties, the topics of “riparian and/or littoral rights” (and the “prior appropriation doctrine” in the western states) come into play, along with several other issues. Those topics are fodder for other lengthy blog posts all by themselves. Appraisers should familiarize themselves with their state laws regarding water frontage and related rights, as they can vary from state to state.

Among the rights that come with real property ownership is the right to exclude others. When oceans, lakes, bayous, estuaries, rivers, streams, and ponds are involved, this right is a large part of what property purchasers are paying for.

To read more, click here

My comments: Worth reading, especially the last section “Final thoughts on the topic.”

I have lived in my island city for 42 years and had two waterfront homes, with docks, during the first 30 years. Both had many water related issues. One was on a tidal canal and built around 1943. Over time many homes along the waterfront, including mine, had non-permitted structures built over the water. The canal was owned by the state with an unclear easement for building beyond the rear lot line. The property owners asked me to do appraisals on the homes, including the rear structures but did not like my very high fee. It was so complicated the state and the city gave up trying to straighten it out.

The other home, built in 1946, faced a small bay off an outlet to a large part of San Francisco Bay. The large rear part of the lot was owned by the state and the city, which was leased to the homeowner. When the state said they were considering giving public waterfront access along the rear of all the homes unless we paid an annual lease fee, based on the extra lot square footage, we agreed to pay it.

I always wondered what other appraisers thought about these issues. They may not have even recognized or asked about them. Appraisers called very rarely.

I will never forget one of my first house appraisals here. The owner said it had a Bay view but did not mention you had to stand on the toilet to see through the window. After that, I told them the view had to be from a chair that you sat in!

Read more!!

Appraisals – Check the Water Source!

Excerpt: We continue to see claims alleging that the rural property appraiser failed to adequately identify or report details surrounding a water source. In one claim, the appraiser correctly noted that the property was serviced by a “private water well.” It was later discovered that the well was not located on the property which was appraised. Unfortunately, the well was actually located on an adjacent lot that, at one time, was part of the subject lot prior to the lots being subdivided.

My comments: An appraiser lost a lawsuit because he said the vacant parcel had public water access. It did not even though many lots nearby were developed. Nearby, I noticed a large water tank. It was shared by four nearby homes. This was not in a rural area. I worked for 4 years in rural areas. Water access was critical. If there was no access, trucks had to bring the water.

Appraisers – check the water source!

10-12-17 Newz//FHA-Appraisers responsible for water quality reporting?, Hybrid appraisal survey)

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

To read more of this long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on real estate market, USPAP and contracts, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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My Comments on Market Changes

My inbox is flooded with news emails about opinions on what is happening now and forecasts for the future. (Most of the information in these newsletters comes from emails. I am on many email lists.) It looks like the change is starting because of increasing mortgage interest rates. I have included some of the articles below.

Fannie and Freddie have long said that they want appraisers to tell them about their markets. Include graphs and charts in your appraisal to show your clients what is happening now and why they need human appraisers.  

It is extremely important for appraisers now to closely track changes in your local markets at least once every day and tell your lender clients about it. When will it affect your market? No one knows if there will be foreclosures or when they will start. The number of potential buyers will decrease as rates go up in many markets.

Segments may be very different from the overall stats. A few examples:

  • Different price ranges – first-time homebuyers, high end
  • New homes – what is happening?
  • Detached vs. townhomes and stacked condos.
  • All cash and investors
  • How many offers
  • No inspections or appraisals?

COMPS ARE THE PAST. YOU MUST KNOW YOUR MARKET TRENDS. TRACK AND GRAPH THE NUMBER OF LISTINGS VS. PENDINGS AND EXPIREDS, DAYS ON THE MARKET, PRICE CHANGES, ETC. 

Today is NOT the same as 2008+, with its massive fraudulent loans made to unqualified buyers. Computer modeling did not predict the 2008 crash. Many were in denial that it was coming and refused to listen to appraisers. We have never seen a pandemic real estate market before. Did anyone think in early 2020 that home values all over the country would go off the charts? No one did. Appraisers wrote up long disclaimers about how they did not know the effects. Some still include them in their appraisal reports today.

Watch the excellent 4-minute video with Mark Zandi, “There’s a comeuppance coming in the housing market”. It discusses how today is different from 2008 and what is happening today. Before becoming the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, he was a real estate economist. I listened to him for many years about real estate economics. He is very savvy. I agree with what he says about real estate. I am unsure about inflation. To watch the video, click here

I have been writing about these upcoming changes in these newsletters for a while now. Ryan Lundquist writes about this almost every week. He has lots more details and examples of graphs that can help you see what is happening in your market. www.sacramentoappraisalblog.com He writes for the Sacramento, CA market but what he writes is relevant for other markets also.

Two days ago the Fed raised rates by 0.75%. Recession? Lower inflation? Real estate market?

Read more!!

Appraisal Comps in Lopsided Markets

Different colorful shapes wooden blocks on beige background, flat lay. Geometric shapes in different colors, top view. Concept of creative, logical thinking or problem solving.

Choosing comps in a lopsided market

By Ryan Lundquist
Excerpt: QUESTION: With so many listings receiving offers above list, and people having to pay the shortfall between the appraised value and the contract price, how do appraisers look at comps? If a property sold at $580,000, but it actually appraised for $547,000, and the buyer paid the difference, which number do you use? $580,000 or $547,000?
ANSWER: Here are a few things on my mind.
1) Weigh the comps:
In any market (not just today), we have to weigh the comps. Or another way to say it is, we have to appraise the comps so to speak. What I mean is if something clearly sells for too much, it’s reasonable to give that property less weight in our analysis. Likewise, if a property sells for too little, we might also give less weight to that sale. Granted, selling for too little isn’t as common lately, but in past markets we regularly considered whether short sales or bank-owned sales sold below market value.
2) One sale doesn’t make or break the market:
It’s important to note one sale doesn’t make or break the market. This means one lofty “lone ranger” sale doesn’t all of a sudden mean the rest of the market will go to that level. This would be like saying that record-breaking $7M sale in Shingle Springs from August will pull the rest of the market up. Nah, I don’t think so. Or Zillow buying a house for $40,000 more than the comps will cause the rest of the market to rise. Nope. If one sale closes at $580,000, but the rest of the market is below $550,000, we won’t arbitrarily accept $580,000 as the new neighborhood price threshold. The same would hold true if a different house sold at $450,000. This one “low ranger” (sorry) won’t automatically drag the rest of the market down.
To read more plus lots of comments, click here
My comment: Some good comments and tips for this crazee market!!

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

To read more of this long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on unusual homes, surplus vs. excess land, ANSI, USPAP, Liability, mortgage origination stats, etc.

 

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Read more!!

Market Decline Coming for Appraisals?

Is There a Market Correction on Its Way? 

by Steven W. Vehmeier

Excerpt: When will the market correction arrive?

I have no idea, but there will be warning signs, and that’s what this blog article is about. Fluctuations in market activity are common, but unseasonal and ongoing changes of any of the signs listed below can often be red flags. Additional indicators can be some of the factors that led up to the last market bust; there are plenty of articles online with which to familiarize yourself.

What will be the early signs?

Some early warning signs of housing market correction are:

A) Listing inventory in MLS starts to climb steadily. Increasing inventory is generally a sign that buyers have stopped buying (due to prices being too high or a lack of consumer confidence), or there are just fewer ready, willing, and able buyers in the marketplace.

B) Days on Market for listings increase. This event is usually linked to item (A) above.

C) Listing prices begin to stabilize, and reductions in listing prices become more common, which is a sign the market is becoming saturated…

So many appraisers missed the early signs in the last boom’s bust that resulted in claims (valid or not) of over-valuations followed by lawsuits, E&O insurance claims, and regulatory disciplinary actions. Maybe this time, we should pay closer attention to the indicators…

To read lots more tips, click here

My comments: Most Excellent list of what to look for. Very comprehensive. I have been appraising during many up and down cycles in Northern California, starting in the late 1970s at 2%+ per month, followed by a crash in 1980 when interest rates went up to 15%+. Those were the days when lenders told appraisers not to make time adjustments!! Even though we don’t like the 1004mc, it forced lenders and appraisers to look at price changes.

No one knows when the increasing market peaks, but there are signs of a decline, listed in the blog post above. I sold my house in March 2008 and did not anticipate the market crash a few months later. I was very lucky. There had been some modest price declines for about 6 months previously.

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

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Subjective Language in Appraisals

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Bias in Housing is Not Appraisers’ Fault

Racial Bias in Real Estate: Is it the Appraisers’ Fault?
The best analysis I have ever read. 

By Maureen Sweeney, SRA

Bias in Housing is Not Appraisers’ Fault

Excerpt: The appraiser must be independent, impartial, and objective. In a mortgage transaction, the appraiser evaluates the property that is to be used as collateral in a mortgage finance transaction. The appraisal is provided to the lender, who uses the appraisal as one of the many criteria used to underwrite the loan and determine if a mortgage loan will be funded or not. Contrary to what some may believe, the appraiser does not make underwriting or lending decisions.

Discrimination, including the long list of anti-cultural, anti-national, and anti-ethnic terms, is a multi-layered, multi-cultural, and multi-generational issue. The systematic, historic, and institutional causes of the various business and government policies and practices need to be addressed and cured. We do not blame the doctor for a cancer diagnosis.

We do not blame the journalist as the cause of the natural disaster that is reported on the evening news. Why is the appraiser blamed for reporting on the real estate market?

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My comment: By far the best, understandable analysis I have read. No whining or ranting. Many appraiser comments and forwarding. Comprehensive post with many references. I had not heard about some of the references. Appraisers are not the problem. We have been told for many decades to be knowledgeable and aware of Fair Housing issues.

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