7-3-20 Newz: New Fannie Update – Street Name Values – Converted Church

Fannie Mae Appraisal Update June 2020

Excerpts from Section on Impact of COVID-19 on appraisals

Through mid-May, about 15% of Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®) appraisals completed after our announcement used the flexibilities, either desktop or exterior-only. As you know, circumstances vary widely across the country, and the uptake of the flexibilities reflects this. The highest percentages of appraisals using the flexibilities are around 40% in some northeastern states, while the lowest percentages are around 10% in some of the less impacted states…

We found that appraisers have used the flexibilities correctly about 90% of the time. Appraisers have done a great job identifying external obsolescence for desktops and exterior-only appraisals, as well as leveraging their local knowledge, maps, aerial photos, and other data sources. We’ve been pleasantly surprised to find that, although not required, about 35% of nontraditional reports include a sketch pulled from prior reports,

assessors records, or other sources. Also, the supporting comments in the nontraditional reports have been even better on average than those in traditional reports.

Worth reading. 5 pages and well written. Also includes comments on “one mile rule” and flood zones. To read more, click here

My comments: There are very few of these done in the Bay Area. 10% sounds about right. However, now we are now in a major virus surge in some states – opened too soon and people in some areas did not do social distancing, hand washing and wear face coverings. Use of the alternative reports may increase in some states, and decrease in the northeast.

These appraisals are not easy to learn how to do, and are very different than doing full 1004 with interior inspections. In the June issue of the paid Appraisal Today I have lots of information on them, including useful references. See the ad below.

Read more!!

6-26-20 Newz: Lot Size Mistakes – Reconsideration of Value- Unusual Mailboxes

Lot size mistakes 

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpts: I’ve seen it happen twice lately where Tax Records lists the lot size, but it’s actually incorrect. In one instance Realist showed the lot was five acres when in fact it was only two acres. In another example it said two acres when it was less than one. Yikes.

My advice? Thankfully most of the time we can trust the lot size in Tax Records, but it’s still a good idea to quickly double-check just to be sure. After all, listing the wrong lot size in MLS or an appraisal could lead to litigation, right? What we can do is view the plat map to see if there is anything abnormal as well as try to piece together the lot size (easy to do if it’s a rectangle)…

To read more, click here

Short with good map illustrations. Plus many, many appraiser comments. I guess it is a hot topic!!

My comments: Also check out Ryan’s local recent market video for some good ideas on how to show market conditions. Plus, all his graphs illustrating his local market.

When I want to know the lot dimensions to determine lot size, I always get a copy of the legal description (usually from the recorded deed). Assessor’s office maps are for assessment purposes and do not always match the legal description. Google Maps is a good way to determine parcel size if the site boundaries are clear.

When an owner asks about lot dimensions and lot line locations (usually a dispute with a neighbor), I always give the same answer: “I Always Assume the Fences Are Not on the Property Line. Hire A Surveyor! ”

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6-12-20 Newz: AMC Fined $2.8 Million – Terrible Agent Photos – Accuracy of Opinions

Can You Measure the Accuracy of An Opinion?

Excerpt: Two appraisals are completed on the same property. Each appraiser has a different opinion of the market value. Which one is accurate? Can they both be accurate?

Occasionally, I read articles or hear of companies that refer to the appraiser’s “accuracy rate”. I’ve always wondered how this is possible to measure. After all, an appraisal is an opinion of market value. Interestingly, if you look up the word “opinion” on www.dictionary.com, one of the definitions is, “a personal view, attitude, or appraisal.” Another is, “The formal expression of a professional judgement”. Can an opinion, or a person’s professional judgement be measured?

To read more, click here

My comment: I used to do a lot of relocation appraisals, where 2 or 3 appraisals were done on the same home. If the appraisals had the same values, it was suspicious. We were usually within 5%. Our accuracy was judged on how close we were to the sales price 60-90 days in the future. Very challenging appraisals!!

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6-5-20 Newz: Waivers; Wavy House; Unemployment Help For Fee Appraisers

A Very Wavy House 

Just For Fun!!

Excerpt: “Everyone basically has this ‘Wow!’ reaction, and it’s pretty polarizing: You either love it, or you hate it,” Assemi says of the home, which is now listed for $599,000. Its roof mimics ocean waves and is covered with cedarwood shingles.

“It’s just so unconventional, but inside, it’s a regular house,” …

The home has three bedrooms and three bathrooms in 1,845 square feet, and its ceilings are 21 feet high. It comes with 6.22 wooded acres on Collins Creek at the base of the Sierras and Sequoia National Park, about 20 minutes from Fresno, CA.

Interesting article and lots of fotos: To read more, click here

My comment: Located in Sanger CA, close to Fresno in a primarily agricultural area. A very unusual home for this part of California!! The median home price in Fresno is $258,500 per Zillow. Can You say: over-improvement? In the Bay Area, our the median price is around $950,000.

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What’s the ONE thing that is most often overlooked by appraisers?

By McKissock

Excerpt: We recently asked our appraisal community, “What’s the ONE thing that is most often overlooked by appraisers?” We received a wide variety of answers ranging from big-picture oversights to specific details. The most common answer we received was “Highest and Best Use.”…

Highest and Best Use (HBU)

This was the top answer, which was written in by about 8% of survey respondents“First question when doing an appraisal is the highest and best use. If there are two very different opinions of value on a property, different HBU is often the reason.”…

Obsolescence

Obsolescence is another item mentioned by multiple survey respondents. Appraisers cited both external obsolescence and functional obsolescence as being frequently overlooked.

“External obsolescence for the subject property – When I’m reviewing appraisals, I see this more often than other oversights. When I was performing retrospective reviews for FNMA, their biggest complaint was that appraisers did not point out external obsolescence for the subject and/or its impact on marketability (if there was an impact).”

“Functional obsolescence – Appraiser focus has changed over the years as subject functionality has changed.”

To read lots more, click hereb>

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5-29-20 Newz: Home Prices Up? – GSE COVID Requirements – Round House

May 27, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpts: What are prices doing? That’s the question I’m getting asked the most. Here are some thoughts about how to look at prices during the pandemic. I also have two brand new price visuals.

1) Eggs in one basket: I recommend watching multiple price metrics instead of putting all our eggs in one basket. So in addition to the median price we can watch the average sales price and average price per square foot.

2) Pure pandemic data: When May stats come out we’re likely going to see 80-90%+ of those sales having gotten into contract after mid-March when the pandemic began to affect us. Thus May sales will be a stronger indicator of pandemic trends than April sales.

3) Seasonal rhythm: It’s key to understand the seasonal rhythm of the market because it helps us spot what is normal and not. For example, the median price usually increases from March to April, but this year we saw the median price dip instead. What does this mean? We need time to understand it. For now we’re recognizing something has happened that is less common. It’s worth noting we often see the median price climax around May or so, which means if we see prices soften in coming months we’re going to have to ask whether it’s a seasonal thing, pandemic thing, or something else.

For more info and of lots of graphs click here

My comment: My big article on Fannie COVID changes, including recommended “disclaimers”, is in the June paid newsletter. See excerpts in the ad below. You MUST discuss market conditions in your appraisal. Ryan’s blog post, and his other posts, give you some good ideas of what to include.

Read more!!

5-22-20 Newz: Refis to Surge – Selling Over List – What’s Happening in Your Market?

Mortgage refinancings set to surge to a 17-year high

Lenders probably will originate $1.5 trillion in refis, a 51% jump from 2019, Fannie Mae says

Excerpt: Even as other parts of the economy tank, lenders will originate $1.5 trillion in refis in 2020, a 51% jump from 2019, according to the forecast. That would be the highest level since 2003 when $2.5 trillion of mortgages were refinanced, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The lowest interest rates on record will bolster refis after the Federal Reserve began buying mortgage-backed securities to stimulate bond demand and grease the wheels of the credit markets. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to an all-time low of 3.23% at the end of April, according to Freddie Mac.

It’s probably heading even lower, according to the Fannie Mae forecast. The average rate probably will be 3.2% in the second quarter, down from 3.5% in the first quarter, and drop for the rest of the year.

To read more, click here

My Comment: And I thought my 3.5% rate loan was a low rate!! Everyone should refi!! Appraisers will be very busy!! Maybe more lenders will order external and desktop appraisals.

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Will Sex Sell? BDSM Dungeon in Arkansas Basement

Excerpts: A hidden door gives access to the dungeon, leading down a spiral staircase. At the bottom is a full nightclub, outfitted with an entertainer’s pole, along with custom-BDSM furniture Shayne made himself.

The couple says the neighborhood is quiet and an excellent place to raise a family.

Some of their neighbors know about the dungeon, and a few have been invited over. The space isn’t a dirty secret, and the couple is happy to talk about it with anyone who shows interest.

Despite the fact that the surrounding community is largely conservative, Shayne says the couple has had “zero negative feedback ”

For more info and lotsa fotos click here

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4-24-20 Newz: Markets Changing? Free Webinars – UFO Homes

NOTICE TO READERS: No covid analysis this week except for this market discussions. Taking a break from Covid. To read my April 3 newsletters, with lots of mostly scientific info, plus updates in these emails since that April 3, go to www.appraisaltoday.com/coronavirus

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House with epidemic influenza and Coronavirus Covid-19 concept

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpt: FIVE WEEKS AGO: About five weeks ago the real estate market started to have a strong reaction to the coronavirus. I look to March 12th as our day of change as that’s when things started to kick into high gear with events cancelling and sellers and buyers backing off the market.

OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW:

1) Pendings and listings declined heavily for a few weeks.

2) Pending contracts have begun to increase again.

3) More new listings are hitting the market.

See how Ryan analyses his market – lots of graphs. Also watch a video interview with Ryan. To read more, click here

My comment: See how the Burmingham, AL is analyzed below. What works for your market?

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Do We Have To Wait To Know How The Pandemic Will Affect Our Market?

Ryan’s interview with Dustin Harris, the Appraiser Coach

Excerpt: Many appraisers are in a “wait and see” pattern, but should we be doing more to be on top of the market? My friend Ryan Lundquist joins me today to talk about his recent article on Sacramento Appraisal Blog called “Seven Things To Watch In Real Estate During a Pandemic.” This is a timely topic for all appraisers.

To listen to the 30 minute audio recording click here

My comment: Ryan’s “Seven Things” article had a huge number of clicks last week. If you missed it, click here

Read more!!

4-17-20 Newz: 7 Things to Watch in your Market – More Fannie Updates – Funny Fotos

NOTES TO READERS: To read my April 3 newsletter: Covid 19 Data Comps and-Values, with lots of science info relating to the pandemic, such as pandemics in the past, stages of a pandemic, personal tips, etc. go to www.appraisaltoday.com/coronavirus

For the previous two weeks I sent out two newsletters a week. Got too burned out. Only one newsletter this week, so it is long.

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Seven things to watch in real estate during a pandemic

April 14, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpts:

1) Listings: We often think about listings increasing as a way to see the market changing, but right now many markets across the country are seeing fewer new listings. So at times change is best seen with less of something rather than more. It’s not a surprise to see fewer new properties during a pandemic, right?…

7) Prices: In real estate we are so obsessed with prices, but that’s really the last place to look to see the market. What I mean is change happens first in the areas above before showing up in sales stats a couple months down the road. In short, for now the slower pandemic trend hasn’t infiltrated sales price figures as of yet in Sacramento. This doesn’t mean the market is stable in every price range and location. All I’m saying is regional and county stats don’t show price declines right now. Normally I pull monthly price data, but I’ve switched to weekly in order to see the trend sooner rather than later.

To see the other 4 factors plus lotsa graphs and many appraiser comments , click here

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3-6-20 Newz: Refi Mania – Corelogic AMC – Coronavirus & Housing Market

CoreLogic attributes its 4Q growth from shift to an AMC

Excerpt: Organic growth trends accelerated during the quarter boosted by market share and pricing gains. One example of accelerated momentum on the organic growth front relates to our new collateral valuation services model.

As you know, we successfully completed our AMC transformation last December. Our new service model has attracted significant market interest and we’ve recently secured major new contracts with two of the top 10 US mortgage originators. These wins together with a host of other new contracts for our reimagined service model are expected to generate strong double-digit underlying AMC revenue growth with higher margins in 2020.

To read more, click here

NOTE: Long article. Search for amc (21 references)

My comment: More staff appraisers? google corelogic AMC for more info.

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Giant Roadside Curiosities

Just For Fun and Escape!!

Excerpts: American highways have something for everyone. Lots of litter. License plates galore. And, if you take the right route, a dinosaur car wash, or a supper club in the biggest fish you’ve ever seen.

To read more, click here

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2-28-20 Newz: Adjustments – Appraiser Personalities – Data Standards

The One Personality Trait Every Property Appraiser Must Have

Excerpt:

Unbiased (46%)

“As an appraiser, you MUST give an unbiased opinion of value based on the data you have collected and your experience for it to be valid.”

“If you can’t be unbiased you should not be an appraiser. It is the hallmark of what an appraiser does.”

“Every appraiser needs to be unbiased. You can have knowledge, experience, patience, and all the credentials in the world, but if you are biased in either direction you are doing your client a disservice whether it benefits you or them.”

To read the other top traits and other interesting comments, click here

My comment: I was trained at an assessor’s office. When I first started working there I was told never to even have a taxpayer pay for your lunch. We were trained to be unbiased. Lending was a big shock for me later, with the pressure for values and non-disclosures. Most say that ethics come from within you. But, maybe fear of losing your appraisal license could be a motivator.

I don’t think that USPAP, licensing, regulations, etc. has done much about this. All it does is make us pay for a new USPAP book and class every other year. Plus way too many changing regulations. Plus very uneven state board enforcement. Before licensing, lenders knew who on their panels were ethical. When I started worked at a biotech company doing real estate management, I knew which local commercial appraisers were ethical and who was not after making a few phone calls. Of course, to many AMCs, all appraisers are the same, are sorta stupid and maybe unethical.

Read more!!