Newz: Waivers Increasing, The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods , Climate Change and Home Values
February 7, 2025
What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)
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LIA AD: Should I consider this an actual claim?
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How Climate Change Could Upend the American Dream – Declining Home Values
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A Sporty Paradise in Your Own Backyard: 5 Homes With Awe-Inspiring Athletic Amenities – From Hockey Rinks to Boxing Rings
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Trump’s War on DEI: Immediate Effects for Appraisers
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The Full Measure: January 2025 Housing Market Insights for Appraisers
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Waivers Increasing and Trends Over Time
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There Goes the Neighborhood…The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods
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Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier.
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How Climate Change Could Upend the American Dream
Declining Home Values
Excerpts: Americans have long accumulated wealth by owning their homes, but a new study predicts that spiking insurance rates and climate disasters now herald an era of widespread losses.
One little-discussed result is that soaring home prices in the United States may have peaked in the places most at risk, leaving the nation on the precipice of a generational decline. That’s the finding of a new analysis by the First Street, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing and provides some of the best climate adaptation data available, both freely and commercially. The analysis predicts an extraordinary reversal in housing fortunes for Americans — nearly $1.5 trillion in asset losses over the next 30 years.
Climate change is upending the basic assumption that Americans can continue to build wealth and financial security by owning their own home. In a sense, it is upending the American dream.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I hear about, and see, more listings that are including climate risk levels. I have not seen discussions on the future of home values in risky areas. I live 10 miles from a very risky area – Oakland CA hills. I am too far away to be at risk. My insurance company, State Farm, is requesting a 22% increase in homeowner’s insurance. Insurers have been not renewing individual homes for various reasons. Will I have to pay the same rates as the Oakland hills, which is very high risk and had a major fire in 2001?
I quit doing appraisals in the Oakland hills about 15 years ago due to high personal risk if a fire starts while I am there. Narrow, winding, one lane roads. Very difficult to escape from fire. Most of my city has risks from sea level rise and some parts have flooding risks, but my home is not included fortunately.
How will appraisers make adjustments for risky homes?
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A Sporty Paradise in Your Own Backyard: 5 Homes With Awe-Inspiring Athletic Amenities—From Hockey Rinks to Boxing Rings
Take a break and scroll down the list.
Excerpts: The upcoming Super Bowl is the sporting event on everyone’s lips at the moment as football fans across the country prepare to watch the Kansas City Chiefs battling it out with the Philadelphia Eagles (while music fans eagerly await Kendrick Lamar‘s halftime performance).
To many, the Super Bowl is the sporting event of the season—but, as many athletes know, watching the annual match-up is by no means the only way to embrace your love of sport in or around your home.
For those who are eager to flex their muscles and sharpen their sporting skills without ever stepping outside their dwelling, there are multiple properties currently on the market that offer top-of-the-line athletic amenities, from basketball courts to boxing rings.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I couldn’t decide which home to select, so I included all of them! To see the listings with more photos, etc., click on the addresses. I did not see any pickleball courts, my top priority…
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Trump’s War on DEI: Immediate Effects for Appraisers
by Isaac Peck, Publisher WorkingRE
Excerpts: What about in the appraisal world? Trump issued several executive orders dealing with Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives and these appear to be having an immediate effect on the profession. Among other things, one of the executive orders terminates “to the maximum extent allowed by law, all DEI…offices and positions…all ‘equity action plans,’ ‘equity’ actions, initiatives, or programs, ‘equity-related’ grants or contracts; and all DEI or DEIA performance requirements for employees, contractors, or grantees.”
While these orders have far-reaching effects and are highly controversial for many, one of the immediate effects that appraisers have noted is that the Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) task force appears to have been disbanded. Visitors to the PAVE website, https://pave.hud.gov/, will note a 403 Access Denied message that reads “You are not authorized to access this page.”
Appraisal Coursework Focusing on Bias
With a clear mandate to walk away from DEI initiatives on the federal level, many appraisers are wondering what impact that will have with respect to the new 7-hour class on fair housing and appraisal bias that is set to become a requirement for all appraisers across the country in 2026.
The future of these coursework requirements is a little more nuanced as it is the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB), at The Appraisal Foundation (TAF), that sets these requirements for appraisers. As we all know, TAF is a private non-profit that wields a great deal of influence over the appraiser profession, but it is not a federal agency, nor is it controlled directly by any federal department.
Given the lack of federal influence over TAF, and the fact that the AQB is an independent board within TAF, whether the AQB chooses to revisit and/or roll back the fair housing and bias coursework remains to be seen. Of course, some states have passed state-specific laws that deal with coursework on appraisal bias, and those requirements exist outside of, and in addition to, the AQB requirements.
The Naughty Word Lists
There have been widespread rumors amongst appraisers regarding whether the more “politically correct” requirements regarding subjective and “naughty” words will get rolled back at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs), or even at the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA).
Insiders at the GSEs report that there are no immediate plans to change policy around appraisers’ use of subjective words, or appraisers’ use of words that identify “protected classes.” The move towards more objective words, descriptors, and so on, is about accuracy and objectivity for appraisers, and discrimination in housing is still illegal, one source told Working RE in a matter-of-fact way.
HUD Complaints
Source: On January 16, Turner spoke before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee while seeking confirmation from Congress for his position. Video included in article.
Under the Biden administration, as Warnock revealed, HUD had been leading efforts to “crack down” on appraisal bias, and the result was that many bias complaints filed with HUD were referred directly to the Washington D.C. office. Today, many appraisers are still waiting for resolution—with some complaints still open after three years or more of sitting in limbo.
With a clear anti-DEI tone coming from the top of the Trump administration, and a HUD Secretary nominee that is focused on efficiency, it will be interesting to see how HUD’s approach to the appraisal bias complaints shifts in the coming months. Time will tell.
CFPB Director
Chopra had appeared sympathetic to residential real estate appraisers at times, and put out a request for information from the public and industry stakeholders in summer 2024 with regards to “junk fees” in mortgage transactions. Nearly 100 comments were submitted dealing with appraiser fees, with dozens of appraisers urging the CFPB to take action regarding the bundling of appraiser fees and AMC fees into a single “Appraisal Fee” on the TRID disclosures.
Chopra was also rumored to have met with the Appraisal Regulation Compliance Council (ARCC), led by Josh Tucker, which has been collecting examples of egregious fee splits where some AMCs have taken up to 80 percent of the “Appraisal Fee.”
It will be interesting to see who is tapped to replace Chopra and whether or not the CFPB will continue to pursue some of the initiatives that Chopra set in motion.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Read This Article. Excellent, well written, with many details. Many thanks to Isaac Peck for writing and publishing it
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New in the February, 2025 issue of Appraisal Today:
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Conceptualizing Market Condition Trends By David A. Braun, MAI, SRA
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The Contract Price as Market Value Really? Who Could Possibly Want That? By Tim Andersen, MAI
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Mortgage Interest Rates from 1900 to 2024 and Forecast for 2025
New GSE requirements on Market Conditions (Time) are required as of March 1, 2025.
Contract Price = Market Value? A somewhat controversial topic, especially among non-appraisers.
Mortgage interest rates going back to late 1870s. History of Fannie, Freddie and FHA.
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The Full Measure: January 2025 Housing Market Insights for Appraisers
By Kevin Hecht
Excerpts: As real estate appraisers, we are tasked with accurately reflecting the complex reality of the market. The interplay between macroeconomic conditions, housing demand, and inventory presents unique challenges and opportunities.
In January 2025, the economic indicators show a mixture of optimism and caution, while housing affordability issues persist. Understanding these dynamics is critical to delivering precise valuations that are relevant to buyers, lenders, and other stakeholders.
Mortgage Rates: Affordability Under Pressure
One of the most significant headwinds facing the housing market today is persistently high mortgage rates. As of January 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains near 7%. This follows a year of steady rate increases driven by Federal Reserve tightening during 2023 and early 2024.
These elevated rates have had a cascading effect on housing affordability, making monthly payments significantly more expensive for borrowers. As a result, both demand and sales activity have slowed, particularly for existing homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that 2024 saw the lowest number of existing-home sales since 1995, despite a modest uptick in December sales activity.
For appraisers, this environment calls for heightened sensitivity to affordability constraints. Reduced buyer purchasing power may limit appreciation potential, especially in markets where prices had escalated rapidly in prior years. This trend could also impact loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which are critical to lenders assessing mortgage risk.
Inventory: Scarcity in Existing Homes Boosts New Construction
For appraisers, this divide between new and existing inventory requires careful analysis. Properties in new developments may command premiums due to modern amenities, energy efficiency, and lower maintenance costs, but appraisers must also consider competitive pressures from older homes nearby.
When selecting comparables, it is important to differentiate between homes that reflect these distinct characteristics.
More Topics: All include what it means for appraisers
- Pending Home Sales: Signs of Stabilization
- Regional Variations and Local Market Nuances
- Appraiser Best Practices for 2025
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Read This Article, which relates all the current topics above to what they mean for appraisers.
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There Goes the Neighborhood…
The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods
By Ernie Durbin
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introduced the Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR) form. Residential appraisers still use this form, albeit with some minor modifications, to this day. While we appraisers will continue using this form for the next year or so, like the space shuttle, it is about to be retired. After a 40-year lifespan, the form 1004/70 and its variations will be mothballed. The primary reasons for this decision are its outdated design, aging technology, and inability to meet the evolving goals of the organization. Sound familiar?
I’ve written numerous articles about this transition, but today I want to highlight a significant difference between the past and the future reports. Notably, the neighborhood section has vanished, replaced by a section titled “Market.” The new market section in the report demands specific data points, charts, and minimal commentary. I believe this change is the right direction. These alterations align more closely with appraisal methodology. Let me explain….
… the reason behind these updates lies in preparing for future changes and the removal of the “Neighborhood” section to introduce the new “Market Area” section. This shift in focus from “neighborhood” to “market area” is a positive step taken by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As appraisers, it’s crucial to analyze markets rather than neighborhoods…
…I think Appraisers will find the new market section of the report much more succinct and faster to complete than the existing neighborhood section in the legacy form. Gone are all the check boxes for neighborhood characteristics, one-unit housing trends, and land use percentages. Let’s be honest, we just guess that the land use percentage and the other checkboxes only lead to additional inquiries from underwriters anyway.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Starting soon, I will be writing about the new URAR: how it is different than the current URAR, what is new, expanded number of fields, reviews of software vendors new URARs and more.
For example: Is Broadband Internet Available to the Subject property?
The response is only ‘Yes’ or ‘No.’ No further exhibit or explanation is required. There’s an easy way to answer that question – by accessing this site, and putting the Subject’s address into the search bar: https://broadbandmap.fcc.gov/home To get it to work, I clicked on Signup in upper right of home page. Appears accurate for my address.
Thanks again to Dave Towne for this example.
—————————————————————————————-HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.
Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.
My comments: Rates are going up and down. We are all waiting for rates to drop in 2025.
Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier
WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 5, 2025) — Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12 percent increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.”
Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 39.0 percent of total applications from 37.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.8 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 16.2 percent from 16.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 13.3 percent from 13.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent from the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.97 percent from 7.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $766,550) decreased to 7.01 percent from 7.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.48 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.69 percent from 6.72 percent, with points decreasing to 0.84 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.36 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.69 from 0.74 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 6.07 percent from 6.44 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The survey covers U.S. closed-end residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Waterfront Home in Boca Raton, FL $25,000,000
