Appraisal News and Business Tips

Housing Forecast: The Present is a Lagging Indicator, and Sometimes it Rhymes

Some Very Interesting comments from Jonathan Miller’s Housing Notes

May 8, 2015

Excerpt:

Earlier this week I came across a brilliant tweet – that when applied in the context of housing, spoke for a lot of the gimmicky click-bait research that comprises a large swath of housing market news coverage.

The present is a lagging indicator.

— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) May 3, 2015

 

While I plan to use that quote extensively, my favorite remains one by Mark Twain (supposedly). It is especially useful when making comparisons to the the boom, bubble, bust cycle of the prior decade.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I prefer my adapted version:

History doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

So much of what we read or think about housing is backward looking or a provides a current view based on a prior event that had a completely different set of circumstance and worst of all, a lack of context. Sound bites relied on by market participants and media often have limited applicability to specific situations and perspectives.

Link to the full Housing Notes issue:

http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=47540980899c1d755b4cddc48&id=9493fa8875&e=e758e759fb

My comment: I love Jonathan Millers writing, speaking etc. The only appraiser I know who is widely quoted, and interviewed, in the media!!

Appraisal Today newsletter

Leave a Reply