Where Did All the Good Appraisers Go?

By on October 15, 2014   /   AMCs, Appraisal fees, appraisers, forecast, future, lender appraisals   /   10 Comments
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Where Did All the Good Appraisers Go?

By Hamp Thomas, Institute of Housing Technologies

Excerpt:

As appraisal fees go downward, quality is going in the same direction. The best appraisers, who have invested years and years in building their careers don’t want to work for a company that they have to check in with every 12 hours, and get treated like a school kid in the principal’s office. An untrained and unlicensed person on the other end of the phone is making their schedule and deciding who gets paid what. And guess what – it’s going to get worse… The best appraisers are finding other types of appraisal work (that values their craft), and the appraisers that work on mortgage loans are often the newer licensees or trainees. If all this Reform we’re talking about is still hoping for higher quality appraisals for use in mortgage lending, we’re in deep trouble. The best appraisers are leaving mortgage appraising as fast as they can.

Appraisers get together and discuss how “bass ackwards” all this “reform” is, and why something that is so logical has been stretched far enough that the government is biting; hook, line, and sinker… If you want a higher quality product, you have to pay more. Look around. Do the best doctors get paid more? How about the best mechanics? The best architects? The best teachers and speakers? The best attorneys? People seek out the best and they are in such great demand, they command higher fees. This is nothing new, it’s just the way the system is supposed to work. So why do we think that appraisals should be different? The lenders, and government officials, and AMC’s think appraisers can be paid less, be required to do more work in each report, and then the quality of appraisals will go up? Come on, this is not rocket science. In most cases, when you add a middleman to any process the price goes up and the quality goes down. Ask Walmart…

http://www.housemeasures.com/ArticlePages/Where-Did-All-the-Good-Appraisers-Go–.html

My comment: AMCs, and the lenders that hire them, see all appraisers as the same. Why not go for the lowest fee? Yes, there are direct lenders who care, and big lenders who have “special lists” of experienced and well trained appraisers, typically for high end homes or people who are top bank customers. Those appraisers are paid much more than the appraisers who compete on fee.
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Lone wolf appraisers fighting everyone, including other appraisers

By on October 6, 2014   /   Appraisal fees, appraisers, forecast, future   /   11 Comments
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Jonathon Miller’s original recent article on Bloomberg and follow up article replying to very negative appraiser “trolls”. Most of the appraisers did not read the

Guess What’s Holding Back Housing? – Original article
Jonathon Miller’s Original posting was on Bloomberg and got lots of appraiser comments, many of them very negative and defensive

Excerpts:
During the U.S. housing boom, real-estate appraisers acted like deal-enablers rather than valuation experts. Indeed, inflated appraisals were a key ingredient in the erosion of mortgage-lending standards that led to the housing bust. Now we are seeing the opposite — low appraisals — with unwelcome consequences for the housing market.

A recent working paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia looked at the impact of the HVCC rules on the outcome of appraisals and mortgages, touted as the first empirical analysis undertaken since the agreement was enacted.

The study looked at the frequency of low appraisals, in which the appraised value was less than the contract price. A low appraisal doesn’t necessarily equate to low quality but it could be a concern. The highest percentage of low appraisals occurred around May 2009. This was not only the peak of the housing-market collapse, but also when the agreement first went into effect, easing the pressure on appraisers by mortgage brokers and banks to “hit the number.”

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-25/guess-what-s-holding-back-housing

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Lone Wolves: Appraisers Fighting Everyone, Including Appraisers
Follow up posting after lots of appraiser ranting

Excerpts:
There are many great people, incredible talents and solid organizations within the appraisal profession. But in my opinion only 20% of the industry are truly competent professionals and the remainder are merely varying degrees of form fillers.

I have been an appraiser for 28 years and it is apparent that the industry is dying a death of a thousand knives. One of the key reasons for this slow death is the lack of national leadership and the extreme fragmentation since most appraisal shops are comprised of a single or just a handful of professionals. I’d also like to offer that the majority of our profession seem very willing to make unsupported negative inferences on reviews of a colleague’s work such as appraisal field reviews or troll columns like mine.

To read the full article and the appraisers’ comments:
http://www.millersamuel.com/lone-wolves-appraisers-fighting-everyone-including-appraisers/

My comments:
I have been following Jonathon Miller for many years. He is very savvy and is widely quoted in the media – local and national. Plus, he has a Most Excellent blog.

I agree with Miller regarding the lack of competent appraisers. It is not the appraisers’ fault. The problem is the lack of adequate training and poor education after appraisal licensing. Fee appraisers were expected to train new appraisers. But, it takes a lot of time. Also, poorly trained recently licensed appraisers were allowed to train new appraisers. The recent change to AMCs and UAD have made residential lender appraisers focus on “filling out the form” to fit guidelines and criteria that do not have much to do with getting a credible and accurate value. In fact, the restrictions can result in being hassled if you try to use comps and analysis that are appropriate for the appraisal. Many appraisers just give up and give them what they want.

I don’t know of any other trade, job, or career where participants constantly “bad mouth” each other. The only reason I can see is that their appraisals are reviewed. Appraisers are used to being criticized and look for “problems” in other appraisers’ work.

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New Fannie Appraisal FAQs including 1004MC

By on September 24, 2014   /   Fannie   /   9 Comments
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New Fannie Appraisal FAQs including 1004MC

Appraisal and Property Related Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) including 1004MC guidelines Published September 23, 2014 Fortunately, the document indicates which Q&As are new, as it is often hard to figure out what is new and what has already been sent out in other documents.

9/20 Update: 1004MC is not required by Fannie but lots of lenders still want it. Not a very good form. for the most recent fannie news, go to the appraiser page at https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/originating-underwriting/appraisers

If you do lender work, read this document!!

Topics include:
– Comps with accessory units
– C&R ratings
– Comments on adjustments
– Sales over 12 months old and distance from subject – Ok to use
– Legal, non-conforming and proof of rebuilding – not required
And many more relevant and useful Q&As, including guidelines that have been around for a while, such as Net adjustments, etc.  Looks like Fannie has figured out many of the topics relevant to appraisers!!

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For many appraisers, the 1004MC comments will be very helpful:

Q16. What type of properties are to be analyzed for the data reported in the One-Unit Housing Trends portion of the Neighborhood section of the appraisal report form?

The data regarding trends to be reported in the One-Unit Housing Trends section must be reflective of those properties deemed to be competitive to the property being appraised. Additional commentary should be provided on the other segment(s) of the neighborhood when segmentation is present to aid in understanding the overall neighborhood dynamics.

Q17. Are the trends that are reported on the Market Conditions Addendum to the Appraisal Report (Form 1004MC) the same trends that are to be reported in the One-Unit Housing Trends section of the appraisal report (Form 1004)?

Yes. The conclusions regarding trends that are obtained from the Form 1004MC must be the same trends reported in the Neighborhood trends section of the Form 1004. The information reported on both forms must be consistent to provide the lender with a clear and accurate understanding of the market trends and conditions present in the subject neighborhood, based on properties that are considered competitive with the subject being appraised.

Read the additional 1004MC Q&As.

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Thanks to appraiser Dave Towne for some great comments on 1004MC:

Ever since the blasted MC Form was mandated in 2011, I’ve been saying the way appraisers have been ‘classically’ trained and used the Neighborhood check boxes on the primary forms did not mesh with the MC Form requirement.  (And in fact, I quit doing the ‘classic’ method then, and have been doing what Q16 & Q17 below say.)

I happen to believe one reason why the MC Form was instituted was that this ‘classic’ reporting methodology of reporting overall dissimilar neighborhood property trends (heterogeneous properties) did not (and does not) make sense when the assignment is to appraise a single property using comparable (or competitive) properties.

Dissimilar properties seldom have the same trend components that the comparable (competitive) properties have.  As such, they don’t need to be reported…..except as the last sentence of Q16 says …. ”Additional commentary should be provided on the other segment(s) of the neighborhood when segmentation is present to aid in understanding the overall neighborhood dynamics.”

An issue with the ‘classic’ methodology is the “predominate” value of an overall neighborhood with dissimilar properties can be much different than when only comparable (competitive) properties are used in the trend analysis.  So, when appraisers use the proper properties as outlined above, there should be no significant problems with that data point, because the “predominate” value will more than likely fall within the price range of the comparable (competitive) properties.

My comment: Finally some guidance on issues that have been driving appraisers crazy with lots of differing appraisal opinions. Now, we can use answers directly from Fannie!!

Hopefully, AMCs and lenders will use these Fannie guidelines instead of making up their own. Particulary, the guidelines that have been around for a long time that are repeated in these FAQs. You can refer them to this document.

Link to FAQs
https://www.fanniemae.com/content/faq/appraisal-property-report-faqs.pdf

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Appraisalport poll comments and results on 1004MC (from their Sept. 2 blog posting at www.appraisalportblog.com

“This month, I want to take a closer look at two recent polls – one related directly to the use of AppraisalPort and the other concerning a controversial form. Starting with the form, we asked: What do you think about the 1004MC form? This was a popular poll with a total of 5982 responses. The form doesn’t appear to be well thought of; with 66 percent of respondents selecting the answer “It really doesn’t work well and should be retired.”  Another 21 percent answered that “It is OK but in need of some updating or modifications.” It seems that the 1004MC form is going to have some trouble getting a date to the prom because only the remaining 13 percent of voters said “It still gives the client a good idea about current market conditions.”

“I did receive some additional feedback on this poll. Some appraisers just don’t like to use the 1004MC because it’s just something else that has to be done; takes more time out of the day; and may not provide accurate results – especially in rural areas. Others think it really is the first step to a more modern style of computer-assisted appraising.“

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How to stem appraiser "low tide"

By on September 8, 2014   /   appraisal, appraisal management company, appraisers, forecast, future, trainees   /   4 Comments
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By Alan Hummel, Chief Appraiser Forsythe Appraisal

Excerpt:

The topic may seem peculiar at a time when mortgage originations are down from the heyday of the early 2000s, but if the issue isn’t addressed now, a shortage of qualified residential appraisers could have a dampening effect on the mortgage market at precisely the moment when it is trying to regain its past vibrancy.

The decline in the numbers of appraisers entering the profession can be attributed to many factors including (but not limited to): qualifications and licensing requirements, the economics involved in training, and unwillingness on the part of some financial institutions to allow trainee appraisers to perform services. The most significant obstacle for many trainee appraisers is completing the 2,500 hours of required experience to achieve Certified Residential status, after the education component has been completed.

My comment: The only answer is for lenders to allow trainees to “sign on their own”.Hummel proposes a training program. But, I don’t see this happening on a large scale.  Since Fannie and Freddie started loan securitization in the 1970s, the volume of appraisals needed has been very, very cyclical. Before licensing, most appraisers were employees of lenders. Lenders solved the problem by hiring armies of trainees during boom times and then laying them off when volume dropped. Few appraisers are employees of lenders now. Fee appraisers have been expected to train new appraisers. Lenders paid them a salary and experienced salaried appraisers were the supervisors. But, fee appraisers are not set up for it – no time, minimal supervisor training, little economic incentive, etc.

Read the full article at:
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/31233-how-to-stem-appraiser-low-tide

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Fannie looking at adjustment

By on August 4, 2014   /   Appraisal fees, appraisers, forecast, future   /   10 Comments
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From AppraisalPort’s monthly newsletter

Author: Steve Costello, who attended the recent Valuation Expo
Excerpts:

“Fannie Mae’s Murphy stated that over the past year, the GSE had been focusing on “quality” and “condition” ratings of comps used in multiple appraisals by the same appraiser and found many cases where the appraiser has changed the quality and/or condition ratings on the same comparable from appraisal to appraisal.  Now, based on the examination of the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) data, Fannie Mae’s focus for the next 12 months will be on adjustments.  The data indicates that many appraisers are not using proper methodology to make their adjustments.  Murphy stated that some appraisers are still using the old standard $20-$40 per square foot adjustment on properties that are easily valued at $500-$650 per square foot.”

“Murphy explained that Fannie Mae is planning to re-evaluate appraisers based on their adjustments and the GSE will expect appraisers to comment on all adjustments if necessary. And, ‘it will be necessary,’ he said, adding that Fannie has seen a lot of under adjusting. To be safe, appraisers should document their logic and reasoning for making any specific adjustments.”

My comment: The easiest adjustment is time. Fannie got that done by requiring 1004MC. The next easiest adjustment is sq.ft. – very easy and reliable using statistics. Of course, as we all know, unless you are appraising a conforming tract home, it is very, very difficult to “prove” all your adjustments. If you know the local market makes adjustments, they should to considered in your appraisal. State regulators are looking for support for adjustments. I am seriously thinking about not using dollar adjustments for 1-4 unit appraisals. Many years ago there was a Fannie form that just required plus and minus adjustments.

I seldom make any dollar adjustments on my apartment and commercial appraisals except for time adjustments, which are easy to support. I find it very strange that residential appraisals have such a high standard. I guess it is due to the lenders telling appraisers what they have to do. I am so glad I don’t do any residential lender appraisals any more. I never like them telling me how to do my appraisals.

I don’t know how Fannie will evaluate adjustments. I make many of my adjustments on a qualitative basis as I work in an area where most homes were built prior to 1920 and are very dissimilar. I know what my market wants, and doesn’t want. If I am not sure, I ask local real estate agents. Of course, they seldom know the dollar amount.

I wonder how well “bracketing” will work for adjustment support?

click here to read the full newsletter
http://www.appraisalport.com/news_events/newsletter.aspx?id=683bbe16-bc37-4573-a436-6a680b2882e0

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Mortgage forecast – loans predicted to drop 30% in 2014

By on October 4, 2013   /   appraisal, appraisers, forecast, future, lender appraisals   /   2 Comments
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Mortgage forecast – loans predicted to drop 30% in 2014
Mortgage Bankers Association, September 2013

Commentary (9/24/13)

Excerpt:
We expect housing starts and home sales to continue to
increase, as home prices continue their recovery. Rising rates have already caused refinance activity to drop significantly, but home buyers who are able to and need to purchase a home will likely adjust accordingly in the current rate environment to complete their purchase. The Fed’s delay in tapering asset purchases has pushed rates down slightly, but we expect
that this is just a pause and rates should continue to increase in the coming months.

Our forecast is for mortgage originations to total $1.6 trillion in 2013, with $989 billion in refinances and $616 billion in purchases. Originations will drop to $1.1 trillion in 2014 as refinances drop to $388 billion, while purchase originations should continue to increase to $703 billion.

2013 actuals and forecast – mortgage loans – in billions
Q1       Q2      Q3       Q4
482     494     369     260

2014 forecast
Q1       Q2    Q3    Q4
251     283     290     267

Interest rates – in percent
2013 actuals and forecast
Q1      Q2    Q3    Q4
3.5     3.7     4.6     4.8
2014 forecast
Q1      Q2    Q3    Q4
4.8     4.9     5.0     5.1

For the full MBA finance commentary, go to
http://mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/85717.htm

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Business down 25% or more for over half of appraisers

By on September 26, 2013   /   appraisers, forecast   /   2 Comments
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Has the recent drop in loan originations had a direct impact on your appraisal business?
www.appraisalport.com poll results

Yes, my volume is down over 50% 1,889 votes – 31%
Yes, my volume is down between 26%-50% 1,590 votes – 26%
Yes, my volume is down between 1% – 25% 1,247 votes – 21%
No, but I anticipate it slowing down soon 411 votes – 7%
No, my volume is about the same and I don’t see it changing soon 669 votes – 11%
Not sure yet 229 votes – 4%

Total Votes: 6,035

FYI, appraisal port is a portal for lender appraisals, so this is a good indicator of changes in  lender appraisal business

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When will the residential lender appraisal business pick up?

By on September 17, 2013   /   appraisal, appraisers, forecast   /   1 Comment
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Loan applications have been declining sharply since April, 2013

How do I know? Loan applications peaked in April 2013 and have been declining since then. Appraisals are ordered after loan applications so loan origination data tells you the future. The Mortgage Bankers Association has published a weekly index of loan applications since 1990. I have included a graph in every issue of my paid Appraisal Today newsletter since 1992. I also periodically include a copy of the MBA’s weekly data in these free email newsletters. Also, of course every economist has been forecasting substantial declines in loans.

About a month ago I started getting the inevitable calls from appraisers when they finally figured out their lender business has slowed down. I enjoy talking with appraisers, but it seemed better to tell my almost 14,000 email subscribers.

What are the main questions from appraisers?
How do I get non-lender work?
Do I think business will pick up soon?
How can I find out the names of good AMCs?

What appraisers are not asking is:
– Which AMCs will be going out of business?
– Are AMC fees dropping?

When will business pick up?
We are in a decline in lender work because rates are up. It is just another inevitable cycle of boom and bust mortgage lending that started in the 70s when Fannie and Freddie securitized lenders’ loans so they could sell them and get more loans. The volume is driven by refis. Prior to that time it was driven by real estate sales. I have no idea when it will pick up, but rates are forecast to increase. I don’t know when they were this low in the past, going back to the 1930s. They may have been lower prior to the 1930s but there is not enough data to know. There are some people who can’t refi because they don’t have enough equity, couldn’t qualify for a loan, or just never got around to refinancing, etc.

How to get non-lender work?
Many post-licensing appraisers have only worked for lenders. Some even use current lending form reports in court when testifying in court. I have been writing about non-lender work since 1992 in my paid Appraisal Today newsletter. In the October issue of the paid Appraisal Today I will have an article “Quick start for non-lender work”. I also have special reports on Estate, Legal and tax related, and Relocation appraisals ($10 for paid subscribers. $15 for non-subscribers). Or, subscribe and get over 2 years of back issues FREE which cover these topics plus Free Special Reports. See ad below.

Get answers to many of your AMC questions by signing up at
www.appraisaladvisor.com  
For unknown reasons appraisers seem to think it is expensive or “too good to be true”. They are wrong. I wrote an article about the company earlier this year for my paid Appraisal Today newsletter. www.AppraisalAdvisor.com  is free until the end of this year. After that fees are based on how many reviews you contribute. The more reviews, the lower your annual fee. They advertised in my email last week in an ad sent separate from this email. Few appraisers opened their ad. Pathetic. I guess appraisers spend all their time online reading postings from other appraisers, a complete waste of time for getting AMC information. Or, just assume nothing is changing or it will pick back up soon.

Don’t even get me started on appraisers who lost money when AMCs went into bankuptcy because they didn’t know it was coming. There were hints online for months before they tanked. Appraisaladvisor.com lets you know what is coming.

On the plus side, you made it though the worst appraisal business collapse ever – HVCC in 5/09 when appraisers lost almost all their mortgage broker clients and had to work for AMCs. Many just quit appraising. Today’s slowdown is nothing compared with that time.

To understand AMCs better (beyond the data), purchase my AMC Special Report for $20. Free to paid subscribers.

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Fewer appraisers in the future – fees and turn time?

By on September 2, 2013   /   Appraisal fees, appraisers, forecast, future   /   1 Comment
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In last week’s email I reported these results:

www.appraisalport.com  poll

With few new people currently entering the appraisal profession, do you foresee a shortage of appraisers at some point?

Yes, in the next few years. 2,705 votes 47%

Yes, but it=s probably years down the road. 1,603 votes 28%

No, I don=t think we will see a chronic shortage. 1,137 votes 20%

Not sure. 253 votes 4%

Total votes: 4,818

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This is a followup to that poll

As a follow up, do you think the future shortage of appraisers will affect fees and turn times?

Yes, at some point it will. 3403 vote (70.6%)

No, I don’t think it will have much effect. 663 votes (13.8%)

No, I don’t think we will see a chronic shortage. 528 votes (11%)

Not sure. 224 votes (4.6%)

Total Votes: 4,818

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Will there be an appraisal shortage in the future?

By on August 28, 2013   /   appraisal, appraisers, forecast, future, lender appraisals   /   1 Comment
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www.appraisalport.com poll

With few new people currently entering the appraisal profession, do you foresee a shortage of appraisers at some point?

Yes, in the next few years. 2,705 votes 47%
Yes, but it’s probably years down the road. 1,603 votes 28%
No, I don’t think we will see a chronic shortage. 1,137 votes 20%
Not sure. 253 votes 4%

Total Votes: 5,698

Until appraiser licensing 20 years ago, most residential appraisers worked for lenders. When it was busy they hired armies of trainees. When work slowed down many were laid off. With the cyclical fees in AMC work and many lenders not allowing trainees to sign appraisals, it is not financially feasible for fee appraisers to train.

I assume that lenders will allow trainees to sign at some time as the inevitable cycle of weak vs. strong regulations shift. I have no idea when this will happen. This is the easiest way to fix the problem. Low AMC fees when business is slow is more complicated as it reduces the financial incentive for fee appraisers to hire trainees and give them part of the fee.

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