Appraisal News and Business Tips

Posts Tagged future

Business down 25% or more for over half of appraisers

Has the recent drop in loan originations had a direct impact on your appraisal business?
www.appraisalport.com poll results

Yes, my volume is down over 50% 1,889 votes – 31%
Yes, my volume is down between 26%-50% 1,590 votes – 26%
Yes, my volume is down between 1% – 25% 1,247 votes – 21%
No, but I anticipate it slowing down soon 411 votes – 7%
No, my volume is about the same and I don’t see it changing soon 669 votes – 11%
Not sure yet 229 votes – 4%

Total Votes: 6,035

FYI, appraisal port is a portal for lender appraisals, so this is a good indicator of changes in  lender appraisal business

Appraisal Today newsletter

When will the residential lender appraisal business pick up?

Loan applications have been declining sharply since April, 2013

How do I know? Loan applications peaked in April 2013 and have been declining since then. Appraisals are ordered after loan applications so loan origination data tells you the future. The Mortgage Bankers Association has published a weekly index of loan applications since 1990. I have included a graph in every issue of my paid Appraisal Today newsletter since 1992. I also periodically include a copy of the MBA’s weekly data in these free email newsletters. Also, of course every economist has been forecasting substantial declines in loans.

About a month ago I started getting the inevitable calls from appraisers when they finally figured out their lender business has slowed down. I enjoy talking with appraisers, but it seemed better to tell my almost 14,000 email subscribers.

What are the main questions from appraisers?
How do I get non-lender work?
Do I think business will pick up soon?
How can I find out the names of good AMCs?

What appraisers are not asking is:
– Which AMCs will be going out of business?
– Are AMC fees dropping?

When will business pick up?
We are in a decline in lender work because rates are up. It is just another inevitable cycle of boom and bust mortgage lending that started in the 70s when Fannie and Freddie securitized lenders’ loans so they could sell them and get more loans. The volume is driven by refis. Prior to that time it was driven by real estate sales. I have no idea when it will pick up, but rates are forecast to increase. I don’t know when they were this low in the past, going back to the 1930s. They may have been lower prior to the 1930s but there is not enough data to know. There are some people who can’t refi because they don’t have enough equity, couldn’t qualify for a loan, or just never got around to refinancing, etc.

How to get non-lender work?
Many post-licensing appraisers have only worked for lenders. Some even use current lending form reports in court when testifying in court. I have been writing about non-lender work since 1992 in my paid Appraisal Today newsletter. In the October issue of the paid Appraisal Today I will have an article “Quick start for non-lender work”. I also have special reports on Estate, Legal and tax related, and Relocation appraisals ($10 for paid subscribers. $15 for non-subscribers). Or, subscribe and get over 2 years of back issues FREE which cover these topics plus Free Special Reports. See ad below.

Get answers to many of your AMC questions by signing up at
www.appraisaladvisor.com  
For unknown reasons appraisers seem to think it is expensive or “too good to be true”. They are wrong. I wrote an article about the company earlier this year for my paid Appraisal Today newsletter. www.AppraisalAdvisor.com  is free until the end of this year. After that fees are based on how many reviews you contribute. The more reviews, the lower your annual fee. They advertised in my email last week in an ad sent separate from this email. Few appraisers opened their ad. Pathetic. I guess appraisers spend all their time online reading postings from other appraisers, a complete waste of time for getting AMC information. Or, just assume nothing is changing or it will pick back up soon.

Don’t even get me started on appraisers who lost money when AMCs went into bankuptcy because they didn’t know it was coming. There were hints online for months before they tanked. Appraisaladvisor.com lets you know what is coming.

On the plus side, you made it though the worst appraisal business collapse ever – HVCC in 5/09 when appraisers lost almost all their mortgage broker clients and had to work for AMCs. Many just quit appraising. Today’s slowdown is nothing compared with that time.

To understand AMCs better (beyond the data), purchase my AMC Special Report for $20. Free to paid subscribers.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Fewer appraisers in the future – fees and turn time?

In last week’s email I reported these results:

www.appraisalport.com  poll

With few new people currently entering the appraisal profession, do you foresee a shortage of appraisers at some point?

Yes, in the next few years. 2,705 votes 47%

Yes, but it=s probably years down the road. 1,603 votes 28%

No, I don=t think we will see a chronic shortage. 1,137 votes 20%

Not sure. 253 votes 4%

Total votes: 4,818

————————-

This is a followup to that poll

As a follow up, do you think the future shortage of appraisers will affect fees and turn times?

Yes, at some point it will. 3403 vote (70.6%)

No, I don’t think it will have much effect. 663 votes (13.8%)

No, I don’t think we will see a chronic shortage. 528 votes (11%)

Not sure. 224 votes (4.6%)

Total Votes: 4,818

Appraisal Today newsletter

Will there be an appraisal shortage in the future?

www.appraisalport.com poll

With few new people currently entering the appraisal profession, do you foresee a shortage of appraisers at some point?

Yes, in the next few years. 2,705 votes 47%
Yes, but it’s probably years down the road. 1,603 votes 28%
No, I don’t think we will see a chronic shortage. 1,137 votes 20%
Not sure. 253 votes 4%

Total Votes: 5,698

Until appraiser licensing 20 years ago, most residential appraisers worked for lenders. When it was busy they hired armies of trainees. When work slowed down many were laid off. With the cyclical fees in AMC work and many lenders not allowing trainees to sign appraisals, it is not financially feasible for fee appraisers to train.

I assume that lenders will allow trainees to sign at some time as the inevitable cycle of weak vs. strong regulations shift. I have no idea when this will happen. This is the easiest way to fix the problem. Low AMC fees when business is slow is more complicated as it reduces the financial incentive for fee appraisers to hire trainees and give them part of the fee.