4-7-16 Newz .Verifying sales .Big data .Weird bathrooms

8 Bizarre Bathrooms from Around the World

“From pop-up toilets in city streets to a bathroom surrounded entirely by an aquarium, these public and private bathrooms are beyond bizarre-and you need to see them!”

Take a break from appraising and check these out. Definitely Weird!!

http://blog.rismedia.com/2016/keepin-it-weird-8-bizarre-bathrooms

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Recent acquisitions of appraisal and title companies

Another great commentary from Dave Towne. Thanks again, Dave!!

From the article in Housingwire.com:

First American Mortgage Solutions, a subsidiary of First American Financial Corporation, acquired Forsythe Appraisals, supplementing its existing valuation capabilities.

Forsythe Appraisals is one of the largest independent residential appraisal company in the United States and offers real estate valuation solutions with nationwide coverage.

Under the acquisition, Forsythe’s management team, including President and CEO John Forsythe, Senior Director of Customer Development Tim Forsythe and Chief Appraiser Alan Hummel, will continue to lead those operations.

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36672-first-american-mortgage-snaps-up-valuation-veteran-forsythe-appraisals

Read more!!

3-17-16 Newz .Pulling permits .Fannie FAQs .Refi revival

Appraisal and Property Related Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

February 12, 2016

This FAQ document provides responses to common questions related to Fannie Mae’s property eligibility and appraisal policies. Following the FAQs, the Attachment on page 10 provides Guidelines for Using Market Conditions Addendum to the Appraisal Report (Form 1004MC).

https://www.fanniemae.com/content/faq/appraisal-property-report-faqs.pdf   

My comments: This document does not have a lot of new material, but it is always good to read this so you can cut and paste some of Fannie’s comments into your reports as an explanation. In this month’s paid Appraisal Today I had two articles on the 1004mc form:

1004MC – the good, the bad, and what Fannie says

Statistical errors in the 1004MC by George Dell, MAI, SRA – He has been fighting with Fannie since the form was first required in April 2009

 More articles are coming soon in the paid Appraisal Today on how to handle the issues.

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Tiny ‘Harry Potter-looking’ homes under construction in North Texas

Excerpt:

Builder Rudy Rivas’ newest house would fit inside the master bedroom of the custom homes he constructs in North Texas.

The average new home being built in America is more than 2,700 square feet – the biggest ever.

So why’s a Dallas custom builder starting a 180-square-foot house?

Read more!!

NEWZ// 2-4-16 – Adjustments-Unwanted mansions-Why homeowners don’t refi-Loan buybacks

 5 Reasons Homeowners are not Taking Advantage of Refi Opportunities

Excerpts:

Historically low mortgage rates have been circling the housing market for several years now. Low mortgage rates present opportunities for homeowners to refinance their homes, but recent data and analysis shows that they are not taking advantage of billions of dollars in savings.

Although the number of refinancers may appear to be large, it is actually down from over 7 million in April 2015. Black Knight reports that interest rates were under 3.7 percent during this time, and the 20-year rate was 3.96.

Black Knight Data & Analytics SVP Ben Graboske explained, “This population is diminishing, and as mortgage interest rates rise, it will only continue to shrink further.”

Here are the five:

Lower credit scores and income.

Hassle and upfront expense.

Not enough equity.

Inconsistent job history.

Lack of assets.  

Lots more info plus a link to the original study.

http://www.themreport.com/news/data/01-25-2016/5-reasons-homeowners-are-not-taking-advantage-of-refi-opportunities

My comment: interesting analysis plus a link to the nerdwallet full analysis. I have always wondered why so few people are not doing refis with rates still at historic lows.

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 CU Quick Guide Videos Now AvailableNew short videos (~4 min) show how to easily use the Collateral Underwriter® (CU™) web application to research common messages. Watch the Quick Guide Intro to the Comp Selection Message to see how to use CU to review appraisals with a material difference between the appraiser-provided and CU model-selected comparable sale rankings. The Quick Guide to Data Discrepancy Messages shows how to quickly view other appraiser observations when there is a discrepancy in reported data (either from what the appraiser previously reported or from what other appraisers have reported.) Want to learn how other lenders have leveraged CU? Review this new Housing Industry Forum article which details how lenders that maximize the use of CU have been able to make the underwriting process more efficient while improving appraisal quality and reducing appraisal-related loan defects.Additional CU live webinar dates are also now available:

CU User Interface Basic Training: Feb 10, 2016 from 2 – 3:30 p.m. ET

CU User Interface Advanced Training: Feb. 18, 2016 from 2 – 3:30 p.m. ET

Maximize your Appraisal Review Efficiency and Effectiveness with CU: Feb. 24, 2016 from 2 – 3 p.m. ET

For more information on CU visit the CU web page. 

My comment: see how CU works, from the lender side. 

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America’s Most Unwanted: The Neverland Ranch and Other Unsold $100 Million Mega-Mansions

Excerpt:

Michael Jackson’s $100 million Neverland-formally known as Sycamore Valley Ranch-is still stuck on the block.

Listed last May (sans the King of Pop’s amusement park), the 2,698-acre compound in Los Olivos showcases a 12,598-square-foot, French Normandy-style main house with six bedrooms and nine baths. Other structures include three separate guesthouses, a 5,500-square-foot movie theater with a stage, numerous barns, animal shelter facilities, and a maintenance shop.

Check them all out at:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kristintablang/2016/01/26/100-million-mega-mansions-for-sale-neverland-ranch-jeff-greene-rancho-san-carlos-palazzo-di-amore-le-palais-royal

My comment: if they ever do sell… very, very long exposure times!

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Adjustments – “Support” vs. “Proof, what should you do?

New in the FEBRUARY 2016 issue of the paid Appraisal Today

Adjustments Part 1 – Are you making too many adjustments? Lots of ideas, research, etc.

– Support vs. proof for adjustments by Bob Keith. A very good explanation of Scope Creep on adjustments. He is the former Executive Director 

of the Oregon State Appraisal Board and is a consultant for appraisers with state board complaints

Identifying Residential Architectural Styles by Mark Nadeau,SRA, Book review. Read my review to decide if you want to buy the book.                        

Two good, practical residential books, with very good tips on adjustments  Book reviews. 

The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, 6th Edition – Read my review to decide if you want to buy this book. 

Cancel at any time. For any reason!!

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Fannie, Freddie Unveil New Appeals Process for Loan Repurchases

Excerpt:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled an appeals process Tuesday that will allow an independent arbitrator to resolve disputes between lenders and the government-sponsored enterprises over loan repurchase demands.

The new independent dispute resolution process, which was approved by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and endorsed by the Mortgage Bankers Association, is an effort to provide lenders more certainty that they won’t later face costly repurchase requests if a loan goes bad.

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/secondary/fannie-freddie-unveil-new-appeals-process-for-loan-repurchases-1071121-1.html

My comment: Maybe lenders will be less paranoid about appraisals causing buybacks and cut back on Excessive Appraisal Requirements.

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One-third of realty transactions are plagued by delays, some of them fatal By Ken Harney

Excerpt:

According to the study, of the 32 percent that experienced delays, 46 percent were triggered by “financing issues,” which is up from 40 percent during the first half of 2015. Appraisal-related problems caused 21 percent of the delays and home-inspection issues in 14 percent. Of the nearly 1 of every 16 (6 percent) of deals that turned into total disasters and fell through, home inspection and financing were the primary culprits. Sixteen percent went south because of the appraisal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/one-third-of-realty-transactions-are-plagued-by-delays-some-of-them-fatal/2016/01/19/0d74d684-beb9-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html 

My comment: maybe that’s why some AMCs are pressuring/asking for more when you “come in” under the sales price. Their clients, the lenders, don’t like deals falling through…

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Study finds discrepancies between reported and actual home sales prices By Ken Harney

Are some realty agents hyping the pricing information on closed sales they report to their local multiple listing service, or MLS? And if so, should you care?

A first-of-its-kind study by appraisal and real estate experts suggests that maybe they are and maybe you should. Researchers compared closing documents – which are supposed to indicate the final price in sales transactions – with the prices that agents actually reported to their MLS and found that in nearly 1 of every 11 cases (8.75 percent) there were discrepancies. Overstatements of final price exceeded understatements by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. In one case, the price reported to the MLS was 21.4 percent above the actual closing price.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/study-finds-discrepancies-between-reported-and-actual-sales-prices/2016/01/26/86d11660-c435-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html

My comment: And AMCs worry about discrepancies on public records and appraisers on GLA!! Another reason Big Data (CU) fails and needs appraiser input. 

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my printed newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 3, 2016) – Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 29, 2016.  The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 0.3 percent from the previous week to its highest level since October 2015.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 59.2 percent of total applications from 59.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.9 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 12.9 percent from 12.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications remained unchanged from 11.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 3.97 percent, from 4.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from  0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  This is the fourth straight weekly decrease for this rate.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to its lowest level since April 2015,  3.84 percent, from 3.89 percent, with points increasing to 0.26 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  This is the fourth straight weekly decrease for this rate.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.80 percent from 3.83 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.22 percent from 3.28 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.00 percent from 3.09 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100

 
To purchase the paid Appraisal Today newsletter  go to

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NEWZ// 1-28-16 Not C-R fees-fined/AI twitter hacked/Building permits?/50 castles/adjustments

 

50 castles in 50 states

Excerpt:

The United States of America is not typically thought of as a land of castles, and with good reason-the uniting of the American states coincided, not coincidentally, with the beginning of the end of the era in which kings and queens ruled over everything, holing up in huge fortified houses so that the peasants and/or invading barbarians couldn’t kill them.

But in a way, that’s too bad, because the U.S.A. is a land of excess, and there’s nothing more excessive than a castle. And there are some castles in this country-maybe more than you’d expect-which range from (mostly) vanity projects, to mini golf courses, to even a few places that originally served some military purpose. Not only that, but many of them are currently for sale. If you’ve ever dreamed of owning a castle of your own, you could, for as little as a few hundred thousand dollars, or as much as a over ten million. (If you want to have your wedding in a castle, the options are even more vast.) In fact, we found a castle in every state in the U.S.A

Here are a few:

– This Illinois Castle Costs a Mere $795,000

– Majestic Castle in the Adirondacks Offers Turrets, Knights, and – Secret Passageways for $12.8M

– Ludicrous $4.9M Texas Castle Really Loves Turrets

My comment: Photos and links for more info for all 50 castles!!

Easy to view – scroll down the page, no excessive popup ads.

Check it out at:

http://curbed.com/tags/castle

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Appraisal volume starts to lose momentum

Reverses last week’s rise

Posted January 26, 2016

 

Excerpts:

Appraisal volume erased most of last week’s rise, falling 4.1% for the week of Jan. 17, the most recent report from a la mode, an appraisal forms software company that tracks appraisal volume throughout the country, showed.

A week ago, appraisal volume grew 5%, following a strong surge the week prior.

“While appraisal volume started the year with a strong recovery from the Christmas and New Year slump, it has not seen the energy that mortgage applications have shown. This is perplexing but could be because of lenders still getting used to the new TRID procedures and delaying ordering appraisals or just that the applications are falling out and not turning into mortgages,” he continued.

Click here to read other comments and see the data.

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36111-appraisal-volume-starts-to-lose-momentum 

My comment: this report is posted every week. Please also see the MBA Weekly Mortgage Loan Origination volume report at the end of every weekly email newsletter, posted on Friday. Appraisal ordering follows originations, so MBA is slightly ahead of the a la mode report.

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POLL: Do you check to see if permits were pulled on remodeling on subject properties?

Source: www.appraisalport.com Vote in their current poll: 

Do you consider appraisal trade groups important to the industry?

My comment: A controversial topic. I’m not surprised at the results. However, if permits are online and free I don’t know why appraisers would not get them. In my city, free online records only go back to about 1970. Most of the homes were built before 1940. It costs $15.25 to get a full permit history and it can take up to a week to get it. The old records are a bit flakey, such as “remodeling” or something else very obscure. Lots and lots of unpermitted work in my city. But, in nearby cities with a lot of tract homes built since 1950, work without permits is not done very often. I was told by a lender’s chief appraiser many years ago not to pull permits so the borrower would “not get into trouble”.For quite awhile, I have been pulling the old permits when needed and run the online permits on all properties. In other cities, if something does not “look right”, such as an addition, I pull the permits. 

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS TOPIC? POST YOUR COMMENTS AT www.appraisaltodayblog.com !

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Coming in the February 2015 Appraisal Today paid newsletter, available Monday, Feb. 1 

Adjustments, Part 1 – Are you making too many adjustments 

Huge change in supporting adjustments since Fannie’s CU started looking at them. State regulators also want to see adjustment support – don’t get sanctioned. Some reviewers want to see support. Etc. 

Some of the topics: 

– How are appraisers supporting adjustments?

– What are the most frequent adjustments?

– What are state appraisal boards looking for?

– What is CU looking for?

– Do adjustments really make a difference in the final value?

– Qualitative vs. Quantitative adjustments

– The best adjustment sources of information

Part 2 will be on types of adjustments. 

FREE TIP: 

NO ADJUSTMENT SUPPORT METHOD WILL WORK FOR ALL ADJUSTMENTS.  

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Appraisal Institute falls victim to Twitter hack

Posted January 22, 2016, last Thursday

Excerpt:

Instead of tweets about the appraisal industry, tweets emanating from the Appraisal Institute’s account for the last 18 hours or so have more to do with Playboy Magazine, Hooters, David Hasselhoff, links to “sexy” videos, and other inappropriate tweets. 

Among other tweets, the hacked Appraisal Institute account tweeted out “to all staff and employees: because its so warm out today, you have to work an extra 2 hours pretending to do actual work” and “new company policy in effect: at social gatherings and events, having fun during such events is forbidden. Unless authorized.”

 As of last Friday: “It appears that the Appraisal Institute Twitter hacking of 2016 is now over, but we’ll always have the screenshots.”

Very interesting. All the old tweets were lost, except for re-tweets. See lots more, including some of the tweets at:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36086

 Comments from the Appraisal Institute: ” The Appraisal Institute’s Twitter account and YouTube channel were compromised last week. Twitter has since been restored, temporarily using the handle: @RealAI_National. We’re in the process of restoring our YouTube channel.” Regarding who did it: “We are investigating the matter and have no further comment at this time.”

 

My comments: I knew I shoulda re-subscribed to the AI twitter feed!! I originally subscribed in 2010 but have not been getting any tweets. I have never had any twitter feed I subscribe to get hacked… I think that the AI will get a lot of new Twitter subscribers, including me!! Subscribe to @RealAI_National. Currently 3,936 followers.  

At the bottom of the article is a comment post by Jason Constantine: “This was the work of one, former disgruntled employee with a shady criminal past. He was jaded because he was replaced with another programmer and wouldn’t take a background check. Can’t prove it but he’s hacked me several times in the past.” Makes sense to me. You don’t get much notoriety from hacking the AI. When you read the tweets in the article, it definitely sounds like an employee. Some are sorta funny ;             

 
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AMC Fined Over C&R Fees

Excerpts:

The Louisiana Real Estate Appraisal Board (LREAB) has again taken action to ensure that Customary and Reasonable (C&R) Fees are being paid by AMCs and lenders in the state.

On December 8, 2015, after a hearing that lasted over 12 hours and was closely watched and attended by appraisers, AMCs, and lenders alike, the Board ruled against iMortgage Services, LLC and issued a Final Order that included a fine of $10,000 and a six-month license suspension. The suspension was stayed, provided that iMortgage provides a C&R compliance plan to the Board no later than March 21, 2016 

In contrast to Louisiana’s previous C&R enforcement action involving Coester VMS, where there was no admission of guilt by Coester, this is the first judgement against an AMC that leaves no question on the determination of guilt. The Board’s final order establishes that iMortgage failed to comply with Louisiana law and violated the C&R fee requirements set in place by the Board.

Demonstrating the glacial speed at which many state board investigations operate, the initial complaint against iMortgage was filed two years ago in January 2014 after iMortgage sent out an appraisal order for a full 1004MC FHA appraisal with a fee of $200. The investigation was not opened until May 2014, with the hearing taking place in December 2015.

My comment: Almost 300 postings at http://appraisersforum.com/ . Search for AMC Fined For Not Paying C&R Fees. Warning: lots of chit chat, etc, typical for AIforum Just wade through them to get to what you want. Comments also posted after the article. 

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Very interesting workingre article. Read more here:

http://www.workingre.com/AMC-fined-over-cr-fees 

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my printed newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications increased 8.8 percent from one week earlier 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 27, 2015) – Mortgage applications increased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2016.  This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

 

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 59.0 percent of total applications from 59.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.9 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 12.7 percent from 13.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.1 percent from 10.8 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 4.02 percent, from 4.06 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from  0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to 3.89 percent from 3.93 percent, with points decreasing to 0.25 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.83 percent from 3.86 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.28 percent from 3.29 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.09 percent from 3.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.18 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mba.org.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100

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Fannie is tracking photos from appraisals

“(Bob) Murphy (Fannie Mae) does acknowledge that Fannie Mae is able to track photos in each appraisal, a practice many appraisers have long suspected, which means that Fannie Mae is able to detect when appraisers reuse comparable photos in different appraisals and flag appraisals which contain outdated photos as deficient.”

My comment: I have been hearing for awhile about appraisers who use the same smoke alarm photo in all their appraisals. Be careful out there. Fannie is watching!!

Appraisal Today newsletter

What are the most frequent adjustments that appraisers make?

Source: Corelogic

Excerpts:
Using a national sample of approximately 1.3 million appraisal reports between 2012 and 2015, new analysis from CoreLogic shows which home features are being adjusted the most frequently, as well as which are being adjusted for the most money, thereby having the greatest impact on appraisal values.
So what is being adjusted and how often? CoreLogic analysis reveals that some type of adjustment was made on 99.8 percent of appraisal reports reviewed. Figure 1 shows the various features adjusted on appraisal reports in relation to how often that adjustment was made, as well as the financial impact, or value influence, it had on the appraisal report.
Differences in Living Area was the most adjusted feature at 96.4 percent. Other features that were adjusted on 50 percent or more of appraisal reports were Room, Car Storage, Porch and Deck, Overall Condition and Site Area. It is significant to point out that the frequency of an adjustment is indirectly correlated to the financial impact, as four of the top five most adjusted features resulted in relatively low average dollar adjustments. For example, Room adjustments were very common at 70.4 percent but had minimal value influence, recording an appraisal adjustment of only $2,246 on average. Conversely, a Quality Rating adjustment had the highest value influence, with an average adjustment of $14,748, but accounted for only 18.7 percent of all adjustments.
Although the adjustment features that result in the highest value adjustment levels (Condition, Quality and Location) are harder to quantify, appraisers are professionals who can do this and adjust their reports appropriately to reflect the most precise appraisal for the home.
My comment: Interesting results. The actual dollar amounts don’t mean much as they are aggregated from all over the country. But, the frequency of adjustments and their relative amounts are worth checking out. What I see is that too many adjustments are being made for items that don’t affect value much and are hard to support. Savvy appraisers are not making adjustments for items such as porches and deck. Many are putting 0 in the grid to indicate that no adjustment is needed. Some appraisers only make adjustments for market conditions and GLA. Other differences, such as condition and location, are considered in the reconciliation. For example, if the subject has superior condition as compared to the comps, a value on the higher end of the range of adjusted comps is selected.
Fannie is focusing on adjustments in the new CU 3.0. They have been focusing on Q and C ratings. I will be writing about what all this means in the November, 2015 issue of the paid Appraisal Today.
Click here to see the adjustments graph and full article. Very interesting and worth checking out.

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Statistics and Appraisal Data

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Statistics and Appraisal Data

The key to any statistical analysis is DATA, DATA, DATA!! Single family real estate data is not very reliable or consistent, and not enough is available in many areas, as we all know.

CU is the most significant attempt to get more useful data by requiring appraisers do use specific coding and criteria. However, real estate is local, local, local. Even the number of bedrooms varies a lot as there are different criteria for determining what is a bedroom, even in the same city. Three appraisers measuring the same house will probably not have the same square footage, as I learned doing relocation appraisals.

9/20 Update.  CU (Collateral Underwriter) has let Fannie obtain lots of data from appraisals. Unfortunately, the data is not available to appraisers. Fannie uses the data to analyze report reliability. 

With CU, this is becoming more obvious as there are sometimes wide variations in how appraisers code factors. For example, why do condition ratings vary? How accurate is MLS? Is public records accurate? What is the best source?

Now that regression software is popular with appraisers for getting adjustments, I have been thinking about why it is often not very reliable. To understand even simple regression requires knowledge.

My first statistics class was in 1963. The first time I used multiple regression was in graduate business school in 1979, when I did a mini-thesis on factors in REIT stock volatility using SPSS.I used a remote university mainframe that kept blowing up and erasing my data. There were no data issues. Doing multiple regression analysis on real estate housing data was not possible. Way too much lack of usable data.

Since I started my Appraisal Today newsletter in 1992, I have been writing about AVMs. The less data that is available, the less reliable the value.

As we all know, AVMs work well in a conforming home in a large tract of similar homes, built in the past 10 years. After that, the accuracy and reliability goes down fast. Just check what Zillow’s Zestimate against your appraised value.

Fannie warning letters – GLA adjustments and lots more coming(Opens in a new browser tab)

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Appraisal adjustments "The Dirty Little Secret"

A Few CU Factoids
– Not all loans go to Fannie – VA, FHA, jumbo, etc.
– Fannie guidelines, including CU, are the minimum. Lenders can add their own, even keeping 15-25% adjustments.
– Lenders are not required to use CU.
– CU sends out appraisal warning messages for adjustments on: GLA, lot size, view, condition, quality, and location. For now.
– Gradual implementation of CU’s web based interface, which has the infamous “20 comps”, mapping, etc. Not available to AMCs.
A few CU comments and opinions from me:
I need a Book of Adjustments!!! Maybe a few of Fannie’s will “leak” – wiki leaks ;>
– AMCs are now asking for adjustment support from non-CU adjustments. More Scope Creep??
– Mass confusion on what gets sent from underwriter to AMC to appraiser – warnings, Risk Scores, etc.
– The recent Fannie Letter to Lenders about CU said that the intent is not to overwhelm appraisers with warning messages. But, are underwriters going to read (and understand) 30+ page appraisals? I’m glad I’m not an underwriter!!
– How to respond to warning messages – not clear.
– Requests from AMCs include CU and non-CU requests. Sometimes hard to tell where they are from.
Adjustments – the “Dirty Little Secret” of Fannie Form Appraisal Reports
I can’t think of any time a client asked me for my support on an adjustment prior to CU. They have been accepting the usual responses, which are in many boilerplates: Based on my many years… or matched paired sales… etc.

A critical issue to me is that the dollar adjustments seem to indicate that residential appraisal values are precise and very accurate, which is not correct. There are lots of factors affecting home sales as compared with income property such as apartments and commercial property.

I have asked many very experienced appraisers how they “support” adjustments. Most use “rules of thumb”, such as using a percent of price per sq.ft. for GLA. But, this number includes land. Or, they use adjustments they were given when they were new appraisers. Of course, if you only appraise conforming homes in conforming tracts built in the past 10 years, it is much, much easier.
For now, CU only sends out warning messages for these adjustments: GLA, lot size, view, condition, quality, and location. This is a very small percent of all the UAD coded data. Plus, some data is not UAD coded, such as pools. But, many state regulators expect to see support for all adjustments in your work files.
We all need a Book of Adjustments ;>
Of course, all of us have adjustments that we have accumulated over the years, or recently developed. But, with CU we are being compared to peer and model adjustments. Of course, no one tells us who or what they are. Sometimes appraisers are given this information.
Regression to support adjustments
Regression will not work for all adjustments. It works well in conforming tracts less than 10 years old. After that, it goes downhill. This has been shown many times for AVMs. I really wish I could just buy regression software and have it calculate them all for me!!
Using qualitative adjustments
I did my first SFR appraisals this week without not making any dollar adjustments when I use form reports for non-lending work. I did make time adjustments (which are very easy to support) as the effective date was June, 2014, when prices were increasing rapidly in my market.
I used plus and minus signs in the grid. I use the 2005 Fannie forms but do not use the Fannie certification or limiting conditions. I use my own.
For awhile in the late 80s or early 90s Fannie had a form with pluses and minuses, so I had some experience. Also I don’t use dollar adjustments in my 5+ unit apartments or commercial appraisals.

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CU warning messages – grrrr

A few appraisers are reporting getting CU appraisal warning messages from AMCs. Some AMCs get the messages and and some don’t, depending on the agreement with their lender client.

I sorta believed all the “experts” who said CU would not affect appraisers much, except the many us who do not have market based adjustment support in our work files (which we should have always had). “They” said appraisers’ time for responding to AMC questions will not change. Fannie’s reviewers have been using CU for about two years. Some lenders beta tested it. They all liked it. But, I wonder if it was tested with “boots on the ground” appraisers who actually had to respond to the warnings??

In January I wrote up a long CU article for my paid Appraisal Today newsletter. In the February issue I will have another long article, focusing on the differences between the old and new CU warning messages. They are very different. AMCs with access to lender’s warning messages are sending them to appraisers, such as:

Old message (pre-CU): Condition adjustment for comparable property #<comparable number> appears excessive.
New message(CU): The condition adjustment [for comp #X] is smaller than peer and model adjustments
New (CU): The condition adjustment [for comp #X] is larger than peer and model adjustments.

There are other messages about condition ratings different that peers and model.

I don’t know how our “peers” and The Model made their adjustments or ratings and what they are. I don’t know how to respond as to why mine differ.

Now that appraisers are getting the warnings, they are asking how to respond to them. Who are these peers? What is the model? I have no idea how to respond, except to say “I don’t know who the peers are and how they determined condition or what method they used for their adjustment. I am unable to respond.” How do you know what the condition is really like for comps? There are lots of ways to estimate an adjustment for condition. You can explain what you did. But, who is right? You, peers, or model?

MLS is soo reliable (Not) for estimating comp condition. I don’t think they will like “matched paired sales” on all of your responses for the method you used for adjustments.

Looks like maybe there will have to be some webinars for appraisers, not just underwriters, explaining how to respond.

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Appraisers not getting access to their own data on CU

There is a petition and a letter being circulated about appraisers getting access to CU, particularly the Web interface which lists comps. This is unlikely for many reasons, which I write about in my paid newsletter.

More important (and more likely to occur) is: Why don’t appraisers get access to subject and comp physical characteristics from the CU database, which was provided by appraisers using UAD?

For example, which appraisers are able to measure their comp GLAs? Not many. This data would really help appraisers do better appraisals. We can always look at MLS interior photos and interview agents, buyers, and sellers for other information we need, such as condition. When the MLS listing says “contractor special” or “fixer” that is a good indicator of condition.

The only reason I have heard is that appraisers vary widely and there are too many differences. GLA is a good example. This has has always varied among appraisers. When I used the old CMDC appraiser database in the late 1980s, sometimes there were more than one source of GLA on a property. I have done relocation appraisals since 1986. It was very seldom that the 2 or 3 appraisers have the same GLA. The “rule of thumb” was up to a 5% difference in GLA was ok.

How many appraisers are “fudging” their dimensions to make their GLA match public records and avoid “stips”? Hopefully, CU will change this. Maybe CU will notice how many appraisers just use public records and how many use their own measurements.

I am really hoping that Fannie allows appraisers to get property characteristic information. It will help all of us – Fannie, lenders, AMCs, appraisers, reviewers, etc.

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