Newz: Time Adjustments, 2025 ASC Appraiser Data Analysis, Fannie Fraud
April 25, 2025
What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)
- LIA ad – Weather Impact
- I Went Down to the Crossroads – Time Adjustments By Tim Andersen, MAI
- Occidental Treehouse Named California’s Most Wish-Listed Airbnb
- Analysis of 2025 ASC Appraisal License Data By Chase Pursley
- Fannie Mae Fraud and Abuse Exposed By Jeremy Bagott, MAI
- Appraiser Growth and Profitability: Key Things to Focus On By Isaac Peck, Publisher
- Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier
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I Went Down to the Crossroads
Time Adjustments
By Tim Andersen, MAI
Excerpts: Is real estate appraisal, with the issue of more detailed time adjustments, at another cross roads now? In the past, appraisers simply smoothed changes in sales prices over time by measuring prices as of January 1st, then again as of December 31st. If they went up an average of six percent (6%) annually, then the appraiser made a one-half percent adjustment each month.
This protocol inflates prices at six percent (6%) per year, true. But it does not reflect the fact that for the first three quarters of the year prices may have increased at twelve percent (12%) per year, then in the last quarter went flat with a zero percent (0%) price change.
In this example, consider that a comparable sale going under contract at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year would merit no time adjustment whatsoever. Nevertheless, the appraiser using the smoothing technique will adjust that sale upward at one-half percent per month over a time span when the market is actually flat. That appraiser is merely filling forms, not appraising. How so?
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Very good article on the “new” time adjustment techniques. Interesting music analysis and how it applies to appraising.
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Occidental Treehouse Named California’s Most Wish-Listed Airbnb
Excerpts: Nestled among towering redwoods in western Sonoma County, the Spectacular Spyglass Treehouse in Occidental has earned the title of California’s most wish-listed Airbnb, part of the vacation rental platform’s roundup of top-trending stays in each U.S. state.
Perched high in the forest canopy, the Spyglass Treehouse — designed and built by Artistree Home — offers guests the rare chance to sleep among the redwoods without sacrificing luxury.
The one-bedroom retreat features a king-size bed, high-speed Wi-Fi, floor-to-ceiling windows with panoramic forest views, a cedar hot tub and an indoor infrared sauna.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: A cabin near the redwoods was one of the first places I lived after moving to San Francisco from Oklahoma in 1968. I became fascinated with redwoods. Very close to my cabin was a small redwood grove. I used to go there and lie down to watch the trees. Later I traveled and saw redwoods that were much larger. I am now living about 5 miles from redwood groves to visit
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Analysis of 2025 ASC Appraisal License Data
By Chase Pursley
Using data from the Appraisal Subcommittee’s (ASC) Federal Registry, we’ve analyzed the licensing of real estate appraisers across the United States. Our analysis covers approximately 66,715 active appraisers holding over 91,000 licenses, examining certification types, geographic distribution, and licensing tenure. This report provides insights into how appraisers are licensed and where they practice in 2025.
As of 2025, there are approximately 66,715 unique active appraisers holding 91,290 active licenses across the United States. This difference in numbers reflects appraisers holding multiple licenses, either across state lines or at different certification levels.
A significant portion (35.2%) are relatively new to the profession
A large group (27.8%) has extensive experience (20+ years)
There’s a noticeable gap in the 5-15 year experience range, suggesting reduced entry during the post-2008 period
Virginia leads in appraiser density with 35.4 appraisers per 100,000 residents (one appraiser per 2,827 residents)
New York has the lowest appraiser density among top states with 16.7 appraisers per 100,000 residents (one appraiser per 5,999 residents)
Some states (FL, IL, PA) have seemed to phase out the Licensed Residential category (or never had this type of license)
Certified General percentages vary significantly, from 34% (CA) to 50% (GA)
Population served per appraiser ranges from about 2,800 to 6,000 residents, suggesting varying levels of market coverage and potential opportunities
To read more and see many tables, Click Here
My comments: This is the best comprehensive analysis of ASC data I have seen. Plus the author explains in detail how he used the data. Of course, I am interested in the number of appraisers per 100,000 population, a wide range, to see what competition is like. I remember before licensing when no one knew how many appraisers there were.
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New URAR What It Means for Appraisers, Part 1
In the April 2025 issue of Appraisal Today
Coming in the May issue: Review of New URAR class. I took the class
April 10.
Excerpts:
What skills you need to have before April 26, 2026, when use of the new software is mandated by lenders
Learning to use mobile appraisal software on a tablet is strongly
recommended as the number of fields will be much greater for the new URAR. Use your current forms software mobile app to practice and use it for your current appraisals.
A tablet is recommended because of the large number of fields.
The new URAR reporting process using UAD 3.6 involves so many
additional data points that an appraiser inspecting without a tablet likely will
overlook necessary items while in the field, and may have to make one or more additional trips out to collect the required data. This will be especially problematic for the comparables if MLS data is minimal or lacking.
Quality and condition ratings are vague; will the new UAD help
address?
Yes, the new UAD has updated quality and condition rating definitions that make the distinction between the ratings clearer. Further guidance will be provided with the ratings definitions to assist the appraiser in determining a more objective rating.
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Fannie Mae Fraud and Abuse Exposed
April 18, 2025
History of waste, fraud & abuse at this rogue organization…
by Jeremy Bagott, MAI
Excerpts: Fannie Mae reported this week it had fired more than 100 employees for unethical conduct, including facilitation of fraud. Expect more such news as the truth emerges about this organization’s activities over the past half-decade.
At the beginning of the decade, under the protective camouflage of its federal conservatorship and Covid-19, Fannie began eliminating critical checks and balances in a radical experiment with U.S. taxpayers’ money and the U.S. economy. The mortgage giant began scrapping or weakening long-accepted underwriting safeguards like standard FICO scoring, title insurance, mortgage insurance, down payments and appraisals.
Fannie and Freddie have been making bad loans and then dumping the notes for pennies on the dollar to venture capital firms and crony nonprofits. The buyers are not putting foreclosed homes back on the market. The homes are instead being rented out. The restrictions in fine print placed on the purchasers of Freddie and Fannie’s nonperforming loans offer a big clue as to what the twins are up to in hiding botched mortgages. Since Covid, Fannie alone has auctioned off pools of nonperforming and so-called delinquent “reperforming” loans. The twins have been quietly purging the mortgages from their books or holding the loans under misleading labels, such as “reperforming.”
To read more plus some interesting appraiser comments, Click Here
My comments: I really like the appraiser comment: MAGA – Make Appraisals Great Again!
I have subscribed to Bagott’s emails for a long time. I reviewed his first book “Cosmic Cobra Breeding Farm” and interviewed him. Before becoming an appraiser he worked for newspapers. He wanted to do in depth research on issues as an investigative Journalist. Now he does it and is also practicing appraiser.
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Appraiser Growth and Profitability: Key Things to Focus On
by Isaac Peck, Publisher
The last few years have been extremely difficult for the majority of appraisers. Historically low transaction volume has translated into an unprecedented slowdown that has led some appraisers into retirement and others to take on a second job.
Appraisers who have been around for a few market cycles know that the ebb and flow of a market is normal, but that’s little consolation to the pain in the marketplace right now.
For those appraisers who have survived the slowdown thus far and are looking ahead—to 2025 and beyond—and are earnestly asking how they can maintain, diversify and even grow their businesses, Working RE sat down with Dustin Harris, The Appraiser Coach, to discuss exactly that.
The last few years have been extremely difficult for the majority of appraisers. Historically low transaction volume has translated into an unprecedented slowdown that has led some appraisers into retirement and others to take on a second job.
Appraisers who have been around for a few market cycles know that the ebb and flow of a market is normal, but that’s little consolation to the pain in the marketplace right now.
For those appraisers who have survived the slowdown thus far and are looking ahead—to 2025 and beyond—and are earnestly asking how they can maintain, diversify and even grow their businesses, Working RE sat down with Dustin Harris, The Appraiser Coach, to discuss exactly that.
Understanding Financials
Another critical area of focus is understanding financials. This is not something every business owner especially likes to do or is especially good at. And although accounting can be outsourced, Harris thinks the person with the vision should also know at least the basics about the numbers.
Harris emphasizes the importance of knowing balance sheets and profit and loss (P&L) statements. “If you don’t know how to do a P&L, there are plenty of YouTube videos out there,” he says. “To run a successful business, you have to understand at least the fundamentals of accounting. Yes, it’s boring, but you need to understand where your starting point is and what your profit/loss looks like.”
Harris himself went to school for teaching but now feels that studying marketing and accounting would have been beneficial for his business. He suggests setting up a system that allows for regular financial reviews.
There are always unknowns in the appraisal profession, as there are in the housing market as a whole. For Dustin Harris, controlling what you can control, and stacking the deck in your favor by consistent outreach and growth, is the key to success in an often-unpredictable field. By focusing on areas such as strategic planning, financial literacy, systematic operations, relationship building, and continuous outreach, appraisers can invite good results and professional growth. Harris hopes his insights provide a set of guidelines for long-term growth, and implementation of people’s visions, in the appraisal profession.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I started appraising in 1975 at an assessor’s office. I had a B.S. in Biology but had never taken any business classes such as economics. I got my MBA in 1980, before starting my appraisal business in 1986. It made me a much better appraiser, both residential and commercial. I knew how to run a business. I also used my MBA to start my monthly Appraisal Today in 1992, including business related articles such as doing non-lender appraisals. I have always done non-lender appraisals and have written many articles about them. Today, my goal is to help appraisers get out of the AMC mess with non-lender appraisals.
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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.
Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.
My comments: Rates are going up and down. We are all waiting for rates to drop in 2025.
Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 23, 2025) — Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These higher rates drove a 20 percent drop in refinance applications, especially for higher balance loans, with the average loan size falling substantially. The refinance share of applications at 37.3 percent was the lowest since January. Similar to the previous week, economic uncertainty and rate volatility impacted prospective homebuyers as we saw a 7 percent decline in purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase activity fell relative to the week before, but the overall level of purchase applications was still 6 percent higher than a year ago.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 37.3 percent of total applications from 41.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.5 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 16.7 percent from 15.8 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 13.4 percent from 13.7 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.90 percent from 6.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) increased to 6.90 percent from 6.84 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 6.56 percent from 6.52 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.82 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.20 percent from 6.11 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 6.01 percent from 6.11 percent, with points decreasing to 0.48 from 0.56 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The survey covers U.S. closed-end residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today
1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501
Phone: 510-865-8041
Email: ann@appraisaltoday.com
Online: www.appraisaltoday.com
