Climate Change and Home Values

Newz: Waivers Increasing, The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods , Climate Change and Home Values

February 7, 2025

What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)

  • LIA AD: Should I consider this an actual claim?

  • How Climate Change Could Upend the American Dream – Declining Home Values

  • A Sporty Paradise in Your Own Backyard: 5 Homes With Awe-Inspiring Athletic Amenities – From Hockey Rinks to Boxing Rings

  • Trump’s War on DEI: Immediate Effects for Appraisers

  • The Full Measure: January 2025 Housing Market Insights for Appraisers

  • Waivers Increasing and Trends Over Time

  • There Goes the Neighborhood…The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods

  • Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier.

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How Climate Change Could Upend the American Dream

Declining Home Values

Excerpts: Americans have long accumulated wealth by owning their homes, but a new study predicts that spiking insurance rates and climate disasters now herald an era of widespread losses.

One little-discussed result is that soaring home prices in the United States may have peaked in the places most at risk, leaving the nation on the precipice of a generational decline. That’s the finding of a new analysis by the First Street, a research firm that studies climate threats to housing and provides some of the best climate adaptation data available, both freely and commercially. The analysis predicts an extraordinary reversal in housing fortunes for Americans — nearly $1.5 trillion in asset losses over the next 30 years.

Climate change is upending the basic assumption that Americans can continue to build wealth and financial security by owning their own home. In a sense, it is upending the American dream.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: I hear about, and see, more listings that are including climate risk levels. I have not seen discussions on the future of home values in risky areas. I live 10 miles from a very risky area – Oakland CA hills. I am too far away to be at risk. My insurance company, State Farm, is requesting a 22% increase in homeowner’s insurance. Insurers have been not renewing individual homes for various reasons. Will I have to pay the same rates as the Oakland hills, which is very high risk and had a major fire in 2001?

I quit doing appraisals in the Oakland hills about 15 years ago due to high personal risk if a fire starts while I am there. Narrow, winding, one lane roads. Very difficult to escape from fire. Most of my city has risks from sea level rise and some parts have flooding risks, but my home is not included fortunately.

How will appraisers make adjustments for risky homes?

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A Sporty Paradise in Your Own Backyard: 5 Homes With Awe-Inspiring Athletic Amenities—From Hockey Rinks to Boxing Rings

Take a break and scroll down the list.

Excerpts: The upcoming Super Bowl is the sporting event on everyone’s lips at the moment as football fans across the country prepare to watch the Kansas City Chiefs battling it out with the Philadelphia Eagles (while music fans eagerly await Kendrick Lamar‘s halftime performance).

To many, the Super Bowl is the sporting event of the season—but, as many athletes know, watching the annual match-up is by no means the only way to embrace your love of sport in or around your home.

For those who are eager to flex their muscles and sharpen their sporting skills without ever stepping outside their dwelling, there are multiple properties currently on the market that offer top-of-the-line athletic amenities, from basketball courts to boxing rings.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: I couldn’t decide which home to select, so I included all of them! To see the listings with more photos, etc., click on the addresses. I did not see any pickleball courts, my top priority…

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Trump’s War on DEI: Immediate Effects for Appraisers

by Isaac Peck, Publisher WorkingRE

Excerpts: What about in the appraisal world? Trump issued several executive orders dealing with Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives and these appear to be having an immediate effect on the profession. Among other things, one of the executive orders terminates “to the maximum extent allowed by law, all DEI…offices and positions…all ‘equity action plans,’ ‘equity’ actions, initiatives, or programs, ‘equity-related’ grants or contracts; and all DEI or DEIA performance requirements for employees, contractors, or grantees.”

While these orders have far-reaching effects and are highly controversial for many, one of the immediate effects that appraisers have noted is that the Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity (PAVE) task force appears to have been disbanded. Visitors to the PAVE website, https://pave.hud.gov/, will note a 403 Access Denied message that reads “You are not authorized to access this page.”

Appraisal Coursework Focusing on Bias

With a clear mandate to walk away from DEI initiatives on the federal level, many appraisers are wondering what impact that will have with respect to the new 7-hour class on fair housing and appraisal bias that is set to become a requirement for all appraisers across the country in 2026.

The future of these coursework requirements is a little more nuanced as it is the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB), at The Appraisal Foundation (TAF), that sets these requirements for appraisers. As we all know, TAF is a private non-profit that wields a great deal of influence over the appraiser profession, but it is not a federal agency, nor is it controlled directly by any federal department.

Given the lack of federal influence over TAF, and the fact that the AQB is an independent board within TAF, whether the AQB chooses to revisit and/or roll back the fair housing and bias coursework remains to be seen. Of course, some states have passed state-specific laws that deal with coursework on appraisal bias, and those requirements exist outside of, and in addition to, the AQB requirements.

The Naughty Word Lists

There have been widespread rumors amongst appraisers regarding whether the more “politically correct” requirements regarding subjective and “naughty” words will get rolled back at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs), or even at the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA).

Insiders at the GSEs report that there are no immediate plans to change policy around appraisers’ use of subjective words, or appraisers’ use of words that identify “protected classes.” The move towards more objective words, descriptors, and so on, is about accuracy and objectivity for appraisers, and discrimination in housing is still illegal, one source told Working RE in a matter-of-fact way.

HUD Complaints

Source: On January 16, Turner spoke before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee while seeking confirmation from Congress for his position. Video included in article.

Under the Biden administration, as Warnock revealed, HUD had been leading efforts to “crack down” on appraisal bias, and the result was that many bias complaints filed with HUD were referred directly to the Washington D.C. office. Today, many appraisers are still waiting for resolution—with some complaints still open after three years or more of sitting in limbo.

With a clear anti-DEI tone coming from the top of the Trump administration, and a HUD Secretary nominee that is focused on efficiency, it will be interesting to see how HUD’s approach to the appraisal bias complaints shifts in the coming months. Time will tell.

CFPB Director

Chopra had appeared sympathetic to residential real estate appraisers at times, and put out a request for information from the public and industry stakeholders in summer 2024 with regards to “junk fees” in mortgage transactions. Nearly 100 comments were submitted dealing with appraiser fees, with dozens of appraisers urging the CFPB to take action regarding the bundling of appraiser fees and AMC fees into a single “Appraisal Fee” on the TRID disclosures.

Chopra was also rumored to have met with the Appraisal Regulation Compliance Council (ARCC), led by Josh Tucker, which has been collecting examples of egregious fee splits where some AMCs have taken up to 80 percent of the “Appraisal Fee.”

It will be interesting to see who is tapped to replace Chopra and whether or not the CFPB will continue to pursue some of the initiatives that Chopra set in motion.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Read This Article. Excellent, well written, with many details. Many thanks to Isaac Peck for writing and publishing it

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New in the February, 2025 issue of Appraisal Today:

  • Conceptualizing Market Condition Trends By David A. Braun, MAI, SRA

  • The Contract Price as Market Value Really? Who Could Possibly Want That? By Tim Andersen, MAI

  • Mortgage Interest Rates from 1900 to 2024 and Forecast for 2025

New GSE requirements on Market Conditions (Time) are required as of March 1, 2025.

Contract Price = Market Value? A somewhat controversial topic, especially among non-appraisers.

Mortgage interest rates going back to late 1870s. History of Fannie, Freddie and FHA.

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The Full Measure: January 2025 Housing Market Insights for Appraisers

By Kevin Hecht

Excerpts: As real estate appraisers, we are tasked with accurately reflecting the complex reality of the market. The interplay between macroeconomic conditions, housing demand, and inventory presents unique challenges and opportunities.

In January 2025, the economic indicators show a mixture of optimism and caution, while housing affordability issues persist. Understanding these dynamics is critical to delivering precise valuations that are relevant to buyers, lenders, and other stakeholders.

Mortgage Rates: Affordability Under Pressure

One of the most significant headwinds facing the housing market today is persistently high mortgage rates. As of January 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains near 7%. This follows a year of steady rate increases driven by Federal Reserve tightening during 2023 and early 2024.

These elevated rates have had a cascading effect on housing affordability, making monthly payments significantly more expensive for borrowers. As a result, both demand and sales activity have slowed, particularly for existing homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that 2024 saw the lowest number of existing-home sales since 1995, despite a modest uptick in December sales activity.

For appraisers, this environment calls for heightened sensitivity to affordability constraints. Reduced buyer purchasing power may limit appreciation potential, especially in markets where prices had escalated rapidly in prior years. This trend could also impact loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which are critical to lenders assessing mortgage risk.

Inventory: Scarcity in Existing Homes Boosts New Construction

For appraisers, this divide between new and existing inventory requires careful analysis. Properties in new developments may command premiums due to modern amenities, energy efficiency, and lower maintenance costs, but appraisers must also consider competitive pressures from older homes nearby.

When selecting comparables, it is important to differentiate between homes that reflect these distinct characteristics.

More Topics: All include what it means for appraisers

  • Pending Home Sales: Signs of Stabilization
  • Regional Variations and Local Market Nuances
  • Appraiser Best Practices for 2025

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Read This Article, which relates all the current topics above to what they mean for appraisers.

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There Goes the Neighborhood…

The New URAR: Markets vs. Neighborhoods

By Ernie Durbin

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introduced the Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR) form. Residential appraisers still use this form, albeit with some minor modifications, to this day. While we appraisers will continue using this form for the next year or so, like the space shuttle, it is about to be retired. After a 40-year lifespan, the form 1004/70 and its variations will be mothballed. The primary reasons for this decision are its outdated design, aging technology, and inability to meet the evolving goals of the organization. Sound familiar?

I’ve written numerous articles about this transition, but today I want to highlight a significant difference between the past and the future reports. Notably, the neighborhood section has vanished, replaced by a section titled “Market.” The new market section in the report demands specific data points, charts, and minimal commentary. I believe this change is the right direction. These alterations align more closely with appraisal methodology. Let me explain….

… the reason behind these updates lies in preparing for future changes and the removal of the “Neighborhood” section to introduce the new “Market Area” section. This shift in focus from “neighborhood” to “market area” is a positive step taken by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As appraisers, it’s crucial to analyze markets rather than neighborhoods…

…I think Appraisers will find the new market section of the report much more succinct and faster to complete than the existing neighborhood section in the legacy form. Gone are all the check boxes for neighborhood characteristics, one-unit housing trends, and land use percentages. Let’s be honest, we just guess that the land use percentage and the other checkboxes only lead to additional inquiries from underwriters anyway.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Starting soon, I will be writing about the new URAR: how it is different than the current URAR, what is new, expanded number of fields, reviews of software vendors new URARs and more.

For example: Is Broadband Internet Available to the Subject property?

The response is only ‘Yes’ or ‘No.’ No further exhibit or explanation is required. There’s an easy way to answer that question – by accessing this site, and putting the Subject’s address into the search bar:  https://broadbandmap.fcc.gov/home To get it to work, I clicked on Signup in upper right of home page. Appears accurate for my address.

Thanks again to Dave Towne for this example.

—————————————————————————————-HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.

My comments: Rates are going up and down. We are all waiting for rates to drop in 2025.

Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 5, 2025) — Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12 percent increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.”

Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 39.0 percent of total applications from 37.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.8 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 16.2 percent from 16.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 13.3 percent from 13.2 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.5 percent from the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.97 percent from 7.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $766,550) decreased to 7.01 percent from 7.02 percent, with points decreasing to 0.48 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.69 percent from 6.72 percent, with points decreasing to 0.84 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.36 percent from 6.37 percent, with points decreasing to 0.69 from 0.74 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 6.07 percent from 6.44 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The survey covers U.S. closed-end residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA

Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today

1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501

Phone: 510-865-8041

Email:  ann@appraisaltoday.com

Online: www.appraisaltoday.com

Common USPAP Appraiser Violations

8 Common Violations Made by Appraisers

By Dan Bradley

When it comes to appraisal non-compliance with USPAP, certain violations are, unfortunately, somewhat common… I have compiled this list based on many years of personal experience as a reviewer and a state regulator, as well as feedback I have received from other states’ enforcement agencies. Once you’re aware of these common missteps, you should be able to avoid them more easily.

Excerpts:

1. Use of inappropriate sales

One of the most serious issues is the use of inappropriate sales in a sales comparison approach. Sometimes the sales used by the appraiser are dissimilar in physical characteristics, e.g., they are all larger, better quality, or in better condition than the subject, and are not properly adjusted.

In some cases, the appraiser goes some distance away to find sales, but other sales are available in close proximity to the subject. An appraiser should always explain the search parameters and why the comparable sales were chosen. Generic, boilerplate statements such as, “The best and most similar sales were selected and utilized,” should not be used.

3. Failure to analyze sales history

Most appraisers include information about prior sales and transfers of the subject property in their reports. Omitting this information is never a good idea; after all, it is easy for an underwriter or reviewer to check this information right from their desk. However, merely disclosing the date and sale price of a prior sale or transfer is not sufficient to meet USPAP requirements. The appraiser must also analyze the prior sale or transfer and provide a summary of their analysis in the report.

7. Mischaracterization of the subject property

Another (unfortunately) common violation is mischaracterization or misrepresentation of the subject property. During my term as an appraisal board member in my state, I encountered several cases in which a mixed-use property or commercial property was appraised as a residential property so a borrower could obtain a residential mortgage.

To read more, including all the violations, Click Here

My comments: The blog post is well written, relatively short, and worth reading, if only for reminders. In last week’s newsletter, Dan Bradley’s first name was misspelled as Dave, his brother. My apologies. I don’t like anyone misspelling my first name as Anne, not Ann, my correct name!

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FHA appraisal problems

Appraisal Business Tips 

Humor for Appraisers

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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on GSEs outsourcing AI for appraisal photos and Privacy issues,  ROVs, mortgage rate forecast, current real estate market, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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$25M California Estate With a Private Mountain in Somis, CA

Excerpts: 8 bedrooms, 11.5+ baths, 19,660 sq.ft., 22 acre lot, built in 2008

Known as El Palacio Del Solano, the 22-acre property in Somis, CA, boasts a main residence, two-bedroom guesthouse, and an event space designed for grand-scale entertaining. The “ultra-private compound” in the hills of Southern California drew the most clicks on Realtor.com® this week.

Built in 2008, the luxury estate last traded hands in 2021 for $6,250,000. Dubbed “the holy grail of Somis,” the mansion’s lavish amenities include a home theater, massage room, wine cellar, sports court, an arcade room, a lazy-river pool, and a motor court for up to 20 vehicles.

The Spanish-style residence was designed for large-scale entertaining with a wine-tasting room, grand formal dining room, and an outdoor kitchen with multiple seating and entertainment areas. This home’s private massage room, primary suite with sauna, and lazy-river pool were all designed for relaxing.

A spacious four-car garage is attached to the facility equipped with volume ceilings ideal for parking event vans, trucks, and small to mid-size buses. An estimated range of fifteen to twenty cars could comfortably be parked in the driveway and motor court spaces.

To see the listing with 40 photos, Click Here

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Fannie, Freddie’s Offshore Gambit Imperils Privacy of Millions

By Jeremy Bagott, May 20, 2024

Excerpts: Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reportedly “bench-testing” an arrangement with a foreign AI firm in which the offshore firm will data-mine millions of images showing the personal spaces of U.S. homeowners and tenants.

If your home was appraised for a refinance or new mortgage in recent years, the lender likely sent a “property data collector” to take photos of your kitchen, living room, and each of your bedrooms and bathrooms. (Pressured by the Biden administration, government-backed enterprises Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are instructing lenders they no longer need to use state-licensed appraisers for the task.) The images of your home’s interior spaces, along with identifying information, were then likely uploaded to a server run by a vendor.

Now, according to a source, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have potentially caused millions of these images to be made available to an artificial-intelligence company headquartered in Barcelona, Spain, known as Restb.ai. The images are then harvested for information with the help of artificial intelligence.

To read the post plus appraiser comments, Click Here

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Comments from Denis Desaix, SRA, MAI

Editor’s Note: Originally posted on the National Appraisers Forum Google group, which I read regularly.

I think Bagott’s issue is a legitimate concern. I wouldn’t want the interior photos of my home being catalogued by some third-party vendor that were taken related to a mortgage finance transaction I was engaging in. Ditto the floor plan. The data won’t be limited to what is gathered by property inspectors; however, appraisers’ data will also be in that mix.

The fix sounds relatively simple: Require Fannie/Freddie (or any regulated lender, if you will) to process the image-data in-house and maintain it under their control. The counterargument is that if we are going that route, then let’s classify the image data as personal financial information and cover it under the same rules that other consumer financial information is covered by.

However, it seems to me that Bagott’s editorial strongly implies that the imagery data will be identified with a specific consumer/consumer address. I’m not sure that is the case nor would it be necessary to do the analysis Fannie describes.

Here is how Fannie describes the process (from the link Bagott provides):Let’s walk through a process that uses this technology to validate the quality/condition ratings of the subject’s interior compared to the comps and (if applicable) previous photos of the subject.

1. A File# or other tracking number can identify the subject. The address need not be identified.

2. The identity of the comp’s address is less problematic, assuming the photos used are those available for public use. If the photos come from Fannie’s comp database, they, too, can be assigned a tracking number.

3. The vendor works its magic (I would encourage anyone interested at this stage to visit the one identified vendor webpage (https://restb.ai/) and especially click the link to “Appraisals and Inspections” to see how the product can be used for the stated purpose). And, by the way, at least one prominent appraisal forms provider is listed as a customer of this vendor; there are other names that many will recognize as well.

4. The results come back: the subject’s identity isn’t disclosed and remains unknown.

5. Finally, the vendor’s use of the photos is limited by contract, with stiff penalties for violation. If that doesn’t satisfy legitimate security and personal information requirements, the system can be licensed to Fannie/Freddie, and they can run it in-house.

Since we don’t know what protections against potential abuse (if any) are being put into place, there is legitimacy in asking about that and having a concern. In this case, I happen to have those questions and share that concern. Kudos to Bagott for raising them publicly.

I do take issue with Bagott on a number of his opinion pieces (not all, but enough to say “many”). But that’s OK. His pieces are not what I would call news articles. They are editorials (as they present his view on a certain item) or press releases (announcing something for purposes of an advocacy agenda and not necessarily for information purposes so one can fairly evaluate the issue’s pros and cons).

Many of my posts on this forum could be called editorials, although I try to present a balanced picture. Then, I’ll advocate my position and give the reasons why. We’re all free to express our opinions (we do so here within the limits of the forum rules and usually with professional decorum) as we see fit. That’s healthy.

But if our posts appear one-sided or present what appears to be an incomplete description, that typically generates more questions. Those questions, left unanswered, chip away at the strength of the post’s point. So, should it be with Bagott’s editorials; in this case, he raises a valid point, but it seems to me that there is a practical way to eliminate the concerns he raises. Acknowledging that possibility adds additional strength to the argument that this process must be more transparent so we are satisfied it isn’t being abused.

But that’s my editorial opinion; each of us is free to have our own, and all of us are free to debate the other’s opinions.

My comments on Denis’ post: I have known Denis for a long time. He is very savvy and reviews residential appraisal reports for several lenders. He sees a lot of appraisal photos.

My comments: Bagott’s emails are sometimes a bit “over the top” for me, but this one is worth reading. To subscribe to Bagott’s emails, Click Here

When I appraise a house that needs work, the photos always seem to look better than reality. I always comment on this in my appraisal report.

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ROV, Part 2

By George Dell, SRA, MAI, ASA, CRE

Excerpts: ROV (Reconsideration of Value) is now in the boat. Is it safe?

We suspect this will be a long row to get to the chosen island. Just row!

It may be good to start where any good study starts. “What are the words?” The only two words here are “reconsider” and “value.” Let’s look at these. (Sometimes just looking at the words can sort things out.) Different words mean different things to different people!

Reconsider: “To consider again, especially for a possible change of decision” … “especially with a view to changing or reversing.”

Value: “The worth or usefulness something.”

The new Fannie Mae Selling Guide section discusses the process to changes to the appraiser opinion of value. One more word might be important here: “Appraisal.” Appraisal is defined as the act or process of developing an opinion of value, or the opinion of value itself. An opinion.

Ah. This simplifies things. An official ROV wants you to change your opinion. Usually, if not always, this means “You came in too low.” But you already knew that …

The official ROV process includes a procedure for when the value:

is unsupported;

is deficient (due to unacceptable appraisal practices); or

reflects prohibited discriminatory practices.

Whew! A lot to think about here.

To read the full post, Click Here

My comments: If you work for lenders, read this. Very well-written, short, and understandable.

The May 10 issue of this newsletter had a long section on ROVs. To read the issue, including George Dell’s ROV Part 1, Click Here

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Fannie Mae May Mortgage Rate Forecast

Excerpts: Longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, have been volatile the past two months – first rising in response to stronger than expected economic data, and then a more recent decline on weaker readings. Despite this, we view economic growth and inflation as being on the same track as our prior outlook, and we continue to anticipate moderation as the year progresses.

We also continue to expect the Federal Reserve to implement the first of two rate cuts this year in September as inflation measures moderate, gradually trending toward the Fed’s 2-percent target. However, we believe the Fed is likely to remain cautious as there are still signs that inflation may remain stickier than anticipated.

Consistent with the slower sales outlook, our forecast for total mortgage originations was downgraded modestly to $1.73 trillion for 2024 ($1.81 trillion previously) and $2.08 trillion in 2025 ($2.26 trillion previously).

To read about more Fannie economic forecasts and see the graphs, Click Here

My comment: Reading Fannie’s forecasts are helpful. They have been doing them for a long time and have expert economists and other analysts.

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$2M Home Built From 11 Shipping Containers in Vancouver, WA

Excerpts: 4 bedroom, 3.5 baths, 4,074 sq.ft., 0.4 acre lot, built in 2015

A man with a one-of-a-kind idea created a beautiful residence near the border between the states of Washington and Oregon.

The house on S.E. 164th Avenue in Vancouver, WA, is built from 11 shipping containers of different colors.

“The owner actually built it himself, and he did not miss a beat when he built this,” explains the listing agent, Louise James.

She notes that the owner, who works in the import and export business, decided to build a container house.

“His friends all laughed at him,” she adds, “and said, ‘Oh, you can’t do that.’ So he drew it out on a piece of paper and said, ‘This is how I want it to be’—and it turns out to be this amazing masterpiece.”

Construction began on the 4,074-square-foot house in 2015, and finished two years later. HGTV featured the residence during its construction, on the first season of “Container Homes.”

James tells us she’s never seen anything like this home, with influences from all over the world.

Bridging the gap between East and West, the house features an array of Asian influences.

“It has a Japanese garden outside, and it has Tibetan prayer wheels on the entry,” James says, noting that the Japanese tearoom doubles as a meditation room. In a courtyard, a koi pond is outfitted with aquarium glass, which makes it possible to see the fish from inside the house, in the sunken conversation pit.

To read more and watch the video on the top of the page, Click Here

Note: video may be slow to load, but worth the wait!

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my paid monthly newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample go to www.appraisaltoday.com/order Or call 510-865-8041, MTW, 7 AM to noon, Pacific time.

My comments: Rates are going up and down. Many appraisers are not busy. Some are busy, usually with non-lender appraisals.

Mortgage applications increased 1.9 percent from one week earlier

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 22, 2024) — Mortgage applications increased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for the third straight week, dropping to 7.01 percent – the lowest level in seven weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Rates coming down from recent highs spurred some borrowers to act, with increases across both conventional and government refinance applications. VA refinances had a double-digit increase for the third consecutive week, although the current level of refinancing is still well below its historical average. Purchase activity continues to lag despite this recent decline in rates, down 11 percent from a year ago, as potential buyers still face limited for-sale inventory and high list prices.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 34.0 percent of total applications from 32.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.6 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 12.8 percent from 12.4 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 13.7 percent from 12.7 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.01 percent from 7.08 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $766,550) decreased to 7.18 percent from 7.22 percent, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.86 percent, with points decreasing to 0.88 from 0.94 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.42 percent from 6.61 percent, with points decreasing to 0.54 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 6.48 percent from 6.56 percent, with points decreasing to 0.55 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA

Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today

1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501

Phone: 510-865-8041

Email:  ann@appraisaltoday.com

Online: www.appraisaltoday.com

ROV (Reconsideration of Value) Changes – FHA and GSEs

ROV (Reconsideration of Value) Changes – FHA and GSEs

GSE Effective date is August 29, 2024
HUD Effective date is September 2, 2024

Editor’s note: This long section includes, In order:

  • McKissock/Dave Bradley post with a good summary including links to HUD and GSE documents.
  • Appraisersblogs with Dave Towne’s opinions plus many appraiser comments.
  • George Dell – his usual very interesting comments.
  • VA’s Tidewater Initiative written in 2021 by McKissock (Similar idea as current ROV changes), effective in 2003.

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Changes to ROVs: GSEs and HUD Announce New Reconsideration of Value Policies

By Dave Bradley, McKissock May 2, 2024

Excerpts: On May 1, 2024, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD announced new policies for appraisal reconsiderations of value (ROV). These policies were the result of a collaborative effort between the GSEs, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

These policies are intended to create a consistent framework for lenders to respond to a borrower-initiated reconsideration of value. Within this framework, the lender must include steps for the borrower to appeal an appraisal when they believe the value opinion:

  • is unsupported;
  • is deficient due to unacceptable appraisal practices; or
  • reflects discriminatory practices.

Freddie Mac’s Bulletin, announcing the new policy, states:

“Freddie Mac, in collaboration with Fannie Mae and HUD, is implementing requirements related to reconsideration of value (ROV) that promote consistency when a perceived appraisal issue and/or appraisal deficiency exists. These requirements also recognize the importance of the Borrower having the knowledge and opportunity to request an ROV.”

Several sections of HUD Handbook 4000.1 have been amended to reflect HUD’s new ROV policy.

For appraisers, Section II.D.2. of the Handbook creates new general requirements for appraisers. This section states, in part:

“In the event that the underwriter requests a Reconsideration of Value (ROV) and provides additional information material to the value of the Property, the Appraiser must: review all information and market data received from the underwriter;

and summarize the analysis of all information provided by the underwriter within a revised version of the appraisal report regardless of whether the Appraiser determines that changes are not needed to address the issues identified in the ROV.”

To read more plus get links to FHA/GSE documents, Click Here

My comments: If you do GSE or FHA appraisals, read this post, plus the links to the documents. Many appraisers will probably not like it, but will like to have a standardized ROV method. I have never done an “official” ROV for a lender, but I did not like any lender clients objecting to my values.

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Low Value = Material Deficiencies? New FHA ROV Policy

By Dave Towne, May 3, 2024

Excerpts: Up until recently, there has never been a standardized policy for mortgage loan related Reconsideration of Value (ROV) requests after an appraisal has been submitted. Now there is, per the attached PDF HUD/FHA mortgage letter. The GSE’s have similar policies.

I’m not opposed to having a standardized ROV policy. However, these policies are in keeping with the new initiatives surrounding alleged and often unproved appraisal bias and discrimination claims.

But when one reads deeper into the reason for implementing these procedures, it is quickly evident that actually it’s focused on the perception that the appraised VALUE is wrong.

This is the statement in the HUD/FHA ML-2024-07: “This included guidance to improve the established process by which FHA program participants may request an ROV if the initial valuation is lower than expected.”

OK, so who exactly decided the value should be HIGHER than what the appraiser reported, before an appraisal was ordered? Was it the borrower? The mortgage loan officer handling the loan? A Zillow Zestimate? Maybe the underwriter at the lender?

The document also mentions many times the words “material deficiencies” in the appraisal report, which can trigger an ROV request.

My comments: I find this post’s appraiser comments most interesting, especially those from VA appraisers who have been required to use the VA’s Tidewater Initiative, which started in 2003. It was and is controversial. See the last article in this list for more info on Tidewater.

To read more, Click Here


Row, Row, Row, Part 1

By George Dell May 8, 2024

Excerpts: A better ROV! Please reconsider the direction of your boat. Try this this bigger oar. And use it only on the right side of the boat.

Appraisers have long been asked to “reconsider” their opinion. Now we have a more official “standardized process” which affects appraisers, lenders, AMCs, GSEs, and of course, the borrower.

On quick review, I see some unintended consequences, as well as some which have been anticipated. The anticipation includes the additional burden on lenders as well as appraisers. There is administrative time involved, as well as legal factors. Also, the burden on borrowers appears greater than before, including detail and reason.

First, the burden on borrowers. They start the row. Borrowers must believe the opinion of value is:

And regardless of the impact on borrowers and appraisers, the Fannie Mae Selling Guide is almost entirely focused on the responsibilities of the lender.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Short and worth reading.

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The first “official” ROVs – VA’s Tidewater Initiative in 2003: What VA Appraisers Need to Know

By McKissock, January 8, 2021

Excerpts: The VA has a unique set of protocols, known as the Tidewater Initiative, that a VA appraiser must follow when he or she expects the appraised value of a property is going to be lower than its contract price.

This program, often known simply as “Tidewater,” initiated in—you guessed it—the Tidewater area of Virginia (i.e., the Norfolk, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach areas). It initially began as a test program in the early 2000s and was expanded to all areas of the country in 2003, as a result of VA Circular 26-03-11. This initiative was subsequently reaffirmed in the issuance of VA Circular 26-17-18 in July 2017.

If it appears to a VA appraiser that the appraised value of a property is going to come in below the pending sales price, the appraiser must contact the designated point of contact (POC) party that is specified in the appraisal order.

The appraiser is not supposed to discuss the contents of the appraisal with the POC at this point, except to explain they are asking for whatever additional information the POC may be able to provide…

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Read this Tidewater post to see why the current changes are not new. There was a precedent. I never did VA appraisals, so can’t speak from Tidewater experience. But, I remember it was very controversial when it started. Many appraisers complained about it. I was contacted many years ago by the VA to get on their panel, but I declined as the property values were way above VA limits where I lived.

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Read more!!

Why Appraisal Workfiles Are Important

Why an Organized Workfile is Your Best Defense

By Craig Capilla

Excerpts: We all know that the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) set the baseline for what must be included in a workfile. We’ve all also heard ad nauseum that USPAP is a minimum standard. Still, all too many appraisers seek only to meet that minimum standard and little more. That’s where the trouble begins. Particularly when speaking about the workfile, for my money, the most dangerous words in USPAP are “or references to the location(s) of such other data, information, and documentation.” There it is, right there in plain English: USPAP permits appraisers to maintain a reference to the data, information, and documentation considered as a part of the assignment, and the appraiser is NOT obligated to keep a contemporaneous copy of those items.

That minimum standard is all well and fine until one day many months later, when an enforcement agency demands that the appraiser produce that information, usually on a tight timeline, and the information is no longer available or the source now shows different information than what was available at the time of the assignment.

Believe me when I tell you that it is not a good feeling when a regulator asks you to explain why you didn’t consider a particular piece of information, and you cannot summon an answer. Similarly, there are few things more liberating than producing a document that shows the information you are being asked about was not available to you at the time you performed the assignment. I’ve seen this happen. Systems fail. MLS aggregators have software glitches. Public record updates at its own pace. And sometimes, that one crucial piece of information isn’t there anymore when you need it.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: The article also discusses bias. Capilla is an attorney who defends appraisers. Newer appraisers are lucky. Scanning work files is easy. I started appraising before the Internet and easy scanning and filing. My office and home garage are filled up with paper files! I have PDF copies of all the appraisals I have done as a fee appraiser on my main computer, except those done before PDFs were available.

Appraisal Business Tips 

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Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!

NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on appraiser discrimination lawsuit, waivers, staying positive with slow business, appraiser’s economic forecast, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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Remove all bathtubs from home?

Is it a problem to remove all bathtubs in a house?

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpts: I’ve been asked this question twice this week. Is it a problem to remove the tubs from each bathroom? People planning a remodel asked if it was a big deal or not to only have a walk-in shower in each bathroom. Here are my thoughts, and I really want to hear from you too. Anything to add?

It’s not a black and white answer: There’s not one black-and-white answer that applies to every house, price range, location, or market. Bottom line. But backing up, part of the fun of working in real estate is figuring out how to answer questions like this in a way that is balanced and hopefully reflective of the sentiment in the marketplace.

Other topics include:

  • It’s never just about resale value
  • 55+ communities
  • Splitting hairs to prove an adjustment

To read more, including Ryan’s many comments, fun images and graphics, his Twitter X and Instagram surveys, plus 50+ comments, Click Here

My comments: This is the only analysis I have ever seen about this appraisal topic and it is great! I started appraising in 1975 and this was an issue then, continuing today.

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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on property data collectors, economic analysis, managing your email inbox,  unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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2024 USPAP Changes Clarify Nondiscrimination

Changes to the 2024 USPAP Improve Clarity Surrounding Nondiscrimination

Excerpts:

Revising the ETHICS RULE with a Nondiscrimination section

To provide clarity and eliminate concerns, the ASB removed the previous ETHICS RULE language regarding supported and unsupported conclusions, and crafted a new Nondiscrimination section which clearly indicates to appraisers and stakeholders that discrimination is prohibited.

Advisory Opinions

For 2024, the ASB has retired Advisory Opinion 16 (AO-16) and replaced it with two new Advisory Opinions, AO-39 and AO-40.

How do the USPAP revisions to the Nondiscrimination section affect appraisers?

Appraisers were also always prohibited from performing assignments with bias. These requirements are carried forward in the 2024 edition of USPAP. The primary difference is that the new USPAP contains clear and concise language regarding an appraiser’s ethical obligation not to engage in discrimination.

To read more, click here 

My comments: Be sure to read this blog post. USPAP 2024 is effective January 1, 2024. You may, or may not, take the mandatory USPAP class prior to this date.

2024 USPAP for Appraisers

Appraisal Business Tips 

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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on Investigation of desktop appraisals, economic analysis, Bias, hybrid appraisals, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.

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