2-7-20 Newz: Obsolete Appraisers – Apartment AVMs – Outlier Sales

Not getting distracted by outlier sales

By Ryan Lundquist

It’s been a record-breaking couple of years. In New York we saw the highest residential sale ever in the United States at $238M. Then a couple months ago California got a new record with the Beverly Hillbillies mansion at $150M. And now there’s a listing in Bel-Air that just hit the market at $500M. The truth is it’s easy to get distracted by the bling of outlier sales because of how lofty the prices are, but here are a few things to keep in mind….

1) These sales don’t pull the market up: Outlier sales don’t pull the rest of the market up, and they have nothing to do with the entry-level market or affordability for the average person.

2) I just gotta have it: My observation with the highest sales is sometimes cash buyers offer prices that seem disconnected from what looks reasonable on paper. This doesn’t happen in all situations, but sometimes it does where the buyer simply says, “I just gotta have it.”…

For lots more tips, plus a few graphs, click here

My comment: When doing any type of statistical analysis, it is important to look at the outliers, high or low, so you can eliminate them in your data set. Very easy to do.

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1-30-20 Newz: Tax Records SqFt. – Weird SFR Zoning – 5 ft. Wide Home

13516718 – white wood texture with natural patterns

Tax Records is not the definitive source for square footage!

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpt:

Why is the appraiser saying it’s only 1,400 sq ft? Tax Records shows the home is 600 sq ft larger. This issue comes up ALL the time, so let’s talk about it.

The truth: The Assessor’s records are generally reliable, but I’m just saying sometimes they’re not. Why is this? At times it’s as simple as the original builder not turning in accurate information when a house was built. Or maybe an owner took out permits but official records were never updated. Of course we’ve all seen instances where the tax roll shows two units on one lot, but there’s really just one house nowadays. Let’s not forget sometimes owners do an addition without permits, so the Assessor might actually be correct even though the house is technically larger or has even sold on MLS as a larger home. For reference, here are ten reasons why an appraiser’s sketch might be different.

For lots of comments and more info, click here

My comment: This one of the main reasons that AVMs will never be very successful for all homes. Over and over again, statistical analysis shows GLA is the most important physical feature overall.

Also, how bedrooms are determined varies a lot, depending on the local market and can vary over time. The assessor number of bedrooms may not match the appraiser’s. For example, tandem rooms. Finished basements can vary also.

I started appraising at a CA assessor’s office in 1976. In CA, State Board of Equalization regulated county assessors offices, so the procedures and terminology are very similar all over the state. However, GLA from the assessor may have different requirements than other sources, such as ANSI.

Proposition 13 passed in 1979, which only allowed an annual 2% increase in assessment per year, unless there was a sale or improvements (determined by permits). Over time, the information has become more and more out of date.

Data is not available for smaller counties if the assessor says it is confidential. Until the 90s, my county did not release any data, so I had to “guesstimate” on square footage for sales and listings. We finally got it when an MAI was elected assessor.

In the early 90s, I researched assessors records around the country. In some small rural counties the records were kept at the assessor’s home. They were not digitized and available for purchase by data companies.

Appraisers need to know which areas are not accurate. Someties GLA is “political”. Within a city, accuracy can vary. In my city the least accurate records are in the “Gold Coast” with many of the city’s larger, historic homes. In other nearby cities, some properties have low GLAs to keep the property taxes lower.

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9-13-19 Newz: FRT issues – Why Suburbs Look the Same!

Fuggerei

In this truly magical place, rent hasn’t been raised since the year 1520! Just For Fun!!

Excerpts: After minting coins for the Vatican and making a name for himself as one of Europe’s greatest early entrepreneurs, Jakob Fugger (aka “Jakob the Rich”) turned his eye toward those in need. What emerged from this vision has persisted as the world’s oldest charitable social housing complex.
In the year 1517, construction began on Fugger’s vision for what would become the golden-walled enclave of Fuggerei, which he created as a way of providing affordable homes for day laborers, artisans and their families. Though it sustained heavy damage during a bombing raid in WWII, the community was restored to its pre-raid condition, where it has remained uninterruptedly inhabited since its founding in 1520. The city-within-a-city consists of private residences including 67 houses, 147 apartments, St. Mark’s Church, and an administrative building.
To read more, click here

My Comment: Wow!! Really gives me a perspective on rent control here in California and in my small city. Rents are increasing all over the country.

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4-26-19 Newz: Praising Appraisers – Hobbit Houses – New York AMC law

Hobbit Houses in Charlevoix, Michigan

Just For Fun!!

Excerpts: Growing up in northern Michigan in the early 1900s, Earl Young was obsessed with boulders. Glacial boulders, to be exact-ones moored in fields, forests, and on lake coastlines across the state thanks to the slow march and retreat of glacial ice during the Precambrian age.
The homes he designed will stop you in your tracks, as one did the last time I was there, passing by on a bike. Call them “mushroom houses,” “hobbit houses,” “boulder houses”; everyone has a different name for them. They’re often described concisely, if vaguely, as “organic.” Though some see Frank Lloyd Wright’s influence, they’re distinctly Young.

Fascinating! Lots of fotos and info at:
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4-18-19 Newz: Strange Bathrooms; Secret Suburbs; Accurate MLS Data?

SUBSCRIBER NOTICE:
Starting next week this email newsletter will be sent out on Fridays.
Why? After 25 years of sending on Thursdays, time for a change! Also, fewer emails on Fridays, so more time to read this newsletter (and not lose it in your inbox) ;>
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10-25-18 Newz// Maps streets-buildings – Warming Oceans – Actionable Education

A Map of every building in America

Excerpts: Classic maps answer questions like: How do I get from Point A to Point B? These data images, instead, evoke questions – sometimes, simply: What’s that?

We found fascinating patterns in the arrangements of buildings. Traditional road maps highlight streets and highways; here they show up as a linear absence.

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In the August 8 2018 issue of this email newsletter, I published the link

Visualizing the Hidden ‘Logic’ of Cities

Excerpt: Some cities’ roads follow regimented grids. Others twist and turn. See it all on one chart.

Excerpt: In Chicago or Beijing, any given street is likely to take you north, south, east, or west. But good luck following the compass in Rome or Boston, where streets grew up organically and seemingly twist and turn at random.

Fascinating!! Check it out at:
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6-14-18 Newz//New Fannie Selling Guide, AMC Changes, Crazy Restrooms

Dodd-Frank rollback weakens appraisal standards

Excerpts: Under the new law… smaller banks and credit unions will now be free to waive an appraisal for rural properties valued under $400,000, when they can’t find an appraiser in a timely manner.

Most loans are sold into the secondary market. It is a fairly narrow provision. They are basically looking at rural areas where banks are holding the loans in their portfolio.

…continuing concerns with what has been a pendulum swinging back to regulatory relief and loosening risk-management requirements. This is part of that wave.

Read more here:
My comment: good analysis by Bill Garber of the Appraisal Institute. Worth reading.

13 of the Craziest/Coolest Public Bathrooms

Just For Fun!!

Excerpt: We know, there is a lot to hate about public restrooms, but we’ve found they can actually be a very unexpected but very potent source of inspiration. We’ve never seen tile layouts like the ones in public facilities-and that’s why we like them. Overlapping squares with zigzag edges? A woven look with a whopping five different colors and two different tile sizes?

My comment: Wow! Vibrant colors and tiles….

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4-12-18 Newz//What’s a Comp?, Multiple offers way over list, Rotating House

What’s a comp?

 
By George Dell, MAI, SRA

Excerpts: Our education tells us a comp is similar and competitive. So how do we measure “comparability”? If our job entails studying market data to get an answer … might it be important to know exactly how to describe a comp?

So what’s the issue? Why should we care? I am a highly trained expert. I have a license. “Trust me. I know a good comp when I see one.”

My comments: George is writing a longer article than his blog posts for the May issue of the paid Appraisal Today. I often wish his blog posts were longer, but they are designed to be short ;>

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4-5-18 Newz//Weird home interiors, Reduced AQB requirements and state regulators, Data analytical tools

The rage of Airbnb rentals (and stuff to keep in mind about value)

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpts: The owner has a cash cow. Her second unit is bringing in $3,300 per month as an Airbnb rental, and it’s paying her mortgage. Since these types of rentals are all the rage right now, let’s talk about some important details to keep in mind from a value perspective. This isn’t meant to be exhaustive, but I wanted to share some things on my mind. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

Topics:
1) Airbnb rent vs. market rent
2) Lenders and market rent
3) Investors & seller expectations
4) The fine print and a 12% tax

Click here to read the details, plus the appraiser comments:

My comment: This stuff gives me a headache ;> These seem to be everywhere now, especially room rentals. The Local Politics can be a mess. I look at the income as a business. Very different than renting by the month or year (at much lower daily rates), unless it is in a popular vacation rental market.

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2-2-17 Newz .Appraiser email scam .New Fannie updates .White House value

What is the White House Worth? Nearly $400 Million, Says Zillow

Excerpt: Want to buy the White House? Well, you can’t. But if you could, it would go for just under $400 million, says new hypothetical Zillow data.
According to the data, the White House has appreciated 15 percent since Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009, and is currently valued at $397.9 million. Were it to actually be listed on Zillow, it would be the most valuable home on the site-and rightfully so.
My comment: Of course, we all know how accurate Zillow is ;>
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New Netflix Lemony Snicket series and Realtors – humor (Just for fun!!)
Excerpt:
Netflix release of “A Series of Unfortunate Events.”
The children fall in the care of Count Olaf (Neil Patrick Harris), their geographically “nearest living relative,” who is plotting to steal their fortune.  From here on out, the orphans initiate a process of guardian hopping following every next guardian’s death at the hands of Count Olaf.

Read more!!