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How to Find Comps With Few Sales

The challenge of pulling comps in 2024

By Ryan Lundquist

February 14, 2024

Excerpts: Pulling comps in 2024 is tough. Think about it this way. If we have 40% fewer sales happening, that means there are 40% fewer comps. Yikes. Let’s talk about this. I also have some market recap visuals to unpack what’s been happening in 2024 so far.

GO BACK FURTHER IN TIME:

One of the things I’m doing more often today is looking at older comps in the immediate neighborhood. I find myself scouring 2021 onward especially. The truth is there are portions of 2021 and 2022 where prices are exactly the same as today too, so if I use an older comp, I don’t always need to adjust for the way the market has changed. But backing up, I can look at older stuff for the sake of research, but this doesn’t mean I’ll use a super old comp in a report. In short, it’s not enough today to go back 90-180 days because there just aren’t enough data points in so many cases…

WATCH THE MEDIAN TREND

The median price for the region doesn’t translate rigidly to neighborhoods, so be careful about saying stuff like, “The median is up 3% this year, so neighborhood prices are up 3%.” Maybe. Maybe not. Look to the comps most of all. In my experience, some people get really upset when I share median trends because the sentiment is the median isn’t a perfect metric (true)…

EXPAND TO OTHER NEIGHBORHOODS:

Looking up other nearby neighborhoods is something I’ve done much more of lately since sales volume has plummeted. The ideal is to compare areas with similar prices, but even if the price point is a bit different, it can be valuable to see what is happening in a different nearby neighborhood. I may or may not use comps from a different neighborhood. I’m just trying to understand what the market is doing…

To read more and see the graphs with excellent illustrations, Click Here

My comments: Very good tips from Ryan. Market conditions is the easiest adjustment to make. This is my first choice for any unusual homes without current data in any market. I quit making dollar adjustments on form appraisals many years ago, but I always do market conditions adjustments when needed. I appraise a lot of 2-4 units and regularly go to other neighborhoods for comps.

I have been doing this for many years. I do a lot of estate appraisals, which are not current value.

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Posted in: appraisal, bias, Fannie

Appraising Historical Homes

Historical Properties and Their Unique Appraisal Approaches

Excerpts: Appraising historical properties involves a complex interplay of factors, making it a specialized field within real estate valuation. This article provides an insight into the appraisal process of historical properties, emphasizing the role of market data, potential buyers, specialized databases, appraisal methods, and the significant impact of preservation restrictions.

The appraisal process begins with a thorough analysis of market data, focusing on sales of properties that share historical or antique characteristics. This comparative market analysis extends beyond standard parameters like size and location to include age, architectural style, and historical significance. The scarcity of historical properties often requires appraisers to expand their search to find comparable sales, both geographically and over longer time frames.

The distinction between a historic property with preservation restrictions and an old house without them is crucial in the appraisal process. Preservation restrictions, often governed by the National Register or local historical commissions, can add value by ensuring the property’s integrity. However, these restrictions may also limit modifications, potentially affecting the property’s market appeal.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: If you don’t want to appraise a historic property, be sure to check it out before accepting the assignment!

Worth reading. A good summary. I suspect that a company based in Boston, MA sees lots of historic homes!

For many years I appraised in the nearby city of Berkeley, CA. There were definitely adjustments for homes built by famous, widely known, architects. Fortunately, their names were listed in the MLS.

In my small city, there are a few homes by famous architects. One was sold about 20 years ago by a famous architect, Julia Morgan. She designed more than 700 buildings in California during a long and prolific career. She is best known for her work on Hearst Castle in San Simeon, California. No effect on value. I was surprised. If it was in Berkeley, there would be a substantial adjustment.

Some cities have large historic buildings, such as the City Hall in my city, built in 1895, twenty years after the city charter in 1872. The Gold Rush in California started in 1848, which brought many people to Northern California.

But, in my city, there are many restrictions on what can be done with older homes, such as Victorians. For example, window replacements must replicate the original windows, plus some other restrictions on exterior modifications. Restrictions are from the city, the county, and the state. In my city of 78,000 population, there are over 10,000 buildings constructed prior to 1930, including many classic Victorians.

Many downtown mixed-use buildings (retail and apartments) are in my city. I appraised many of them, but never noticed any effect, plus or minus, for historic designation.

Knowing what modifications are allowed is very important for the appraiser. Many people don’t like them. You need to know the market. Sometimes buyers like them and sometimes not.

See how many historic homes and buildings are where you do appraisals and where you live. You may be surprised!

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Posted in: adjustments, appraisal classes, bias, non-lender appraisals

Appliances for FHA appraisals

How does the FHA define appliances?

By Daniel A. Bradley, SRA, CDEI

In September of 2015, FHA revised Handbook 4000.1 to provide a specific definition, which includes:

Refrigerators

Ranges/ovens

Dishwashers

Garbage disposals

Microwaves

Washers and dryers

It’s important to note this does not include garage door openers, swimming pool pumps, intercoms, sound systems, and security systems.

How do appraisers consider appliances?

FHA Handbook 4000.1 also clarifies when appliances are required to be operational by stating, “Appliances that are to remain and that contribute to the market value opinion must be operational,” and, “The Appraiser must note all appliances that remain and contribute to the Market Value.”

FHA requirements for appliances: Is a house required to have a stove?

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Worth reading if you do FHA appraisals. Short and understandable. I did FHA appraisals for a few years in the mid-80s. Too many requirements so I quit doing them, but they helped me get started in my appraisal business.

 

Appraisers Riding the Waves of Up and Down Mortgage Rates

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Posted in: bias, liability, real estate market

2024 Updated UAD and URAR – What does It Mean for You?

2024 Updated UAD and URAR – What does It Mean for You?
The Appraisal World Is Changing

January 25, 2024

Excerpts: There has been a lot of talk about the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) and Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR) redesign initiative, and how it will make life easier for appraisers. What exactly does this mean? In this post, we’re providing an overview of the UAD and URAR, what’s changing, and what benefits these changes will bring.

How will these UAD and URAR changes be beneficial?

A redesigned, dynamic URAR will replace the numerous and separate appraisal forms and can be used for different property types, such as two-to-four units, condominiums, and manufactured homes, and for different scopes of work, such as interior and exterior inspections, updates, and completion assignments.

The new URAR will be better organized and populated based on the property type and characteristics.

The standardized data in the new UAD will allow appraisers to better define the property (outbuildings, additional units, site influences, energy efficient and green features, etc.).

Concerns that require attention will be easily identified in each section of the report instead of being buried in an addendum.

Photographs will be included in relevant sections to make descriptions easier for appraisers and enhance reader understanding.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: A brief summary of the coming changes. See below for more timeline information.

———————-

Freddie – Updated UAD and Forms Redesign Timeline

The Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) and Forms Redesign team has released an updated timeline. The overall timeline has not changed; however, we wanted to provide the industry with more milestone details to help in development, testing and training to prepare for the new UAD and Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR).

To see the timeline (from 2018 to 2026) PDF, Click Here

Too large to include in this newsletter.

To go to the Freddie UAD page (mostly technical) Click Here

To go to the Fannie UAD page, Click Here

——————–

A few comments from Dave Towne:

My concern at this point is ‘training’ materials will be available in Q4 2024, but actual implementation of the ‘new reporting process’ won’t begin until Q3 2025 with limited production, into 2026.

As someone who’s potentially interested in ‘training’ appraisers on the new process, it seems to me that providing training in Q2 2025 would be more appropriate than 6 months before. But we’ll have to see how things progress as this time-line gets more firmed up.

To read the recent appraisersblogs.com post with new comments from Dave plus other appraiser comments, Click Here

My comments: No date changes, but more information on the timeline. Maybe there will be some appraisers left to do full appraisals…

The UAD and Appraisers – Past, Present, and Future

5-24-18 Newz//UAD and Fannie Form Changes. Floating Island. Refis dropping

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Posted in: appraisal, Economic analysis, forecast, real estate market

New 2024 USPAP Q&As

New USPAP Q&As

January 16, 2024, the Appraisal Standards Board released new Questions and Answers covering important topics in the profession today including:

Demographics

Does demographic information relating to race (such as Census data) constitute “information relating to” a protected characteristic?

Artificial Intelligence

Question:

What is an appraiser’s USPAP obligations when using artificial intelligence (AI) in an appraisal assignment?

Personal Inspection

I recently completed an appraisal on a residential dwelling for Lender A that sells loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the report was completed on a GSE form. Lender A decided not to grant the loan and the borrower then engaged Lender B to obtain financing. Lender B engaged me to perform a new appraisal assignment on the same property. Lender B indicated there wasno need for me to re-inspect the home, since my previous inspection date was only a few days earlier.

To read these new Q&As Click Here.

My comments: AI and demographics are “hot topics” now. I am glad the ASB is explaining them.

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Posted in: appraisal, forecast, future, Mortgage applications, mortgage loan volume

Appraiser Has Very Big Problems With Borrower

The Sopranos – Lupertazzi’s Rough Up Appraiser

To watch, click the video above. Opens in You Tube.

Members of the Lupertazzi Crime Family rough up an appraiser who is involved with Tony’s HUD scam.

I will never forget “I’m only the appraiser!” I use the phrase sometimes ;>

It’s one of the few times appraisers are in movies or TV series!

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Posted in: bias, humor, non-lender appraisals

Appraisal Time Adjustments Underutized

FHFA Report: Underutilization of Appraisal Time Adjustments

Published: 1/8/2024

Excerpts: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Federal Housing Administration appraisal guidelines require such adjustments whenever market conditions have been changing. However, this blog shows that appraisers frequently do not make time adjustments, even when they are likely to impact the appraised value substantially. This analysis also finds that the adjustments appraisers do make are typically substantially smaller than house price indexes would suggest.

The main dataset used in this blog is a 5 percent sample of single-family housing in the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) collect.5 The time period covered, the third quarter of 2018 through the fourth quarter of 2021, includes all the UAD data available to FHFA when the analysis began.

…monthly house price indexes for ZIP codes are used to walk forward the comparable sales amounts. For each comparable in the data, the price indexes are used to calculate a predicted time adjustment corresponding to the age of the comparable and local price trends.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Check out the very good graphs. Maybe the indexes were not as reliable as actual appraisal adjustments, but overall adjustments were lower by appraisers.

When I started my business in 1986, several very experienced local appraisers said don’t make time adjustments for lender appraisals. In a significant drop in prices, in the 1990s, some appraisers who made negative adjustments lost their businesses. I always made them and never had any complaints from my lender clients. I worked for an assessor’s office in the late 1970s where we were making 2% per month time adjustments upward. Since Fannie started focusing on UAD analysis around 2015, losing business because of negative market conditions has almost stopped. They are one of the easiest adjustments to make.

My market is very volatile. The only dollar adjustments on non-lender appraisals that I make on homes are market conditions unless it has a valuable feature, such as an excellent view, that needs an adjustment.

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Online comments by a very experienced and savvy appraiser:

This (price indexing) is one thing that AVMs do quite well.

I’ve seen thousands of appraisals over the years where appraisers made no Positive or Negative Market Conditions adjustments, as though the market is always in balance and prices are always stable, even during periods of rapidly changing prices.

Ignoring market conditions adjustments makes us look incompetent to buyers, sellers, lenders, Realtors, and the general public. I purposely omitted AMCs from this group as they are order takers. It’s not good for Residential Fee Appraisers when FHFA tells the public how poorly we’re performing with regards to what most call “time adjustments”.

 

Appraisal Adjustments Yes, No, Maybe

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Posted in: adjustments, Economic analysis, forecast, non-lender appraisals, real estate market

USPAP Myths for Appraisers

Five USPAP Myths Dispelled in 2024 USPAP

By Daniel A. Bradley, SRA, CDEI, McKissock Learning

On May 5, 2023, the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB) voted to adopt changes to the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), which will become effective January 1, 2024. These represent the first changes to USPAP in four years. Many of the changes will not have a significant impact on the way appraisers practice but are nevertheless important for public trust.

Appraisers and the public have traditionally held several misconceptions about USPAP, and these changes should help to dispel some of those myths. There are five myths and misconceptions that are addressed in the changes to the 2024 USPAP.

  • Myth 1: USPAP Allows Discrimination as Long as the Appraiser’s Conclusions are Supported
  • Myth 2: The Removal of the Definition of Misleading from USPAP Reduces Liability for Appraisers
  • Myth 3: An Inspection of the Subject Property by a Third Party is the Equivalent of a Personal Inspection by an Appraiser
  • Myth 4: Appraisers are not Required to Analyze Prior Non-Sale Transfers of the Subject Property
  • Myth 5: The USPAP Update Course Cycle is the Same as the USPAP Publication Cycle

To read more, Click Here

My comments: It’s worth reading, especially if you do residential lender appraisals. Lender issues are a significant factor in USPAP and Myths 1 to 4. I suppose it is because most appraisals are done (now) for residential lending purposes. Many thanks to Dan Bradley for writing about the 2024 USPAP changes.

2024 USPAP For Appraisers

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Functional Obsolescence for Appraisers

Understanding Functional Obsolescence in Appraisals

By: McKissock

Excerpts: For appraisers, functional obsolescence can be a challenging concept because the elements that influence property values may not be obvious or immediately apparent. To help you better understand what it means and how to pinpoint it, we’re exploring some examples the different types of functional obsolescence, and how it can influence property values.

Functional obsolescence may or may not be caused by trends in buyer or market preferences, outdated design, or even advances in technology. Let’s look at a few examples:

  1. A home has three bedrooms, but to reach the third bedroom, you have to walk through the other secondary bedroom. Buyers are likely to see this as a flaw in the floor plan regardless of trends.
  2. A home has a separate formal living room, an enclosed kitchen, and a separate dining room. Today’s buyer prefers a more open, casual layout and may find the separate rooms a flaw in the floor plan, though this may change with market trends.
  3. A home with radiator heat and window unit air conditioning may be seen as functionally obsolete, and thus less valuable, as more modern homes have forced air furnaces and central air conditioning.

Measuring functional obsolescence and its effect on a property’s value can be challenging for even experienced appraisers. To ensure accurate reports, it’s essential you stay up to date and aware of market trends, and even code and building updates, as these changes over time do determine both curable and incurable obsolescence.

To read more, Click Here

My comments: All appraisers see functional obsolescence. Making adjustments can be tough. You need to know the market reaction.

For example, there are many Victorians in my market. They were built without closets and used armoires (free standing closets). It is not considered functional obsolescence as it retains a classic feature in many Victorian homes. I always wonder about what appraisers from tract home areas think about Victorians. I assume (hope) they ask local agents. When I started appraising them, that’s what I did.

I regularly tell local agents that “tandem” rooms don’t count as bedrooms. I’m trying not to think about how many listings have an incorrect number of bedrooms!

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Posted in: appraisal business, bias, real estate market

Superadequacy Adjustments for Appraisals

How to Account for a Superadequacy

By: McKissock

Excerpts: What is superadequacy?

Per The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, 6th Ed., superadequacy is defined as “an excess in the capacity or quality of a structure or structural component; determined by market standards.” It’s a type of functional obsolescence in which the structure or one of its components is overly improved to a capacity or quality than a prudent buyer or owner would build or pay.

While we provide more detailed illustrations below, a simple example would be a 5,000 square foot luxury home built in a neighborhood comprised of two and three-bedroom mid-century ranch homes.

Example #1: Superadequate custom fireplace

Example #2: Superadequate 12-car garage

To read more, Click Here

My comments: Although the blog post references luxury homes, this can occur anywhere. Have you ever driven closer and closer to your subject and noticed that the homes are much smaller or have standard designs? You keep getting closer, hoping it is not your subject. It Is! This definitely has happened to me. Large unusual additions, two large kitchens, very extensive landscaping, etc.

Maybe you were busy and forgot to check it out in public records, MLS or speaking with the owner or agent (if a sale) when scheduling the appointment.

Market Your Appraisal Services: 59 Ways to Get More Business Now

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Posted in: adjustments, appraisal business, bias, humor, statistics