The challenge of pulling comps in 2024
By Ryan Lundquist
February 14, 2024
Excerpts: Pulling comps in 2024 is tough. Think about it this way. If we have 40% fewer sales happening, that means there are 40% fewer comps. Yikes. Let’s talk about this. I also have some market recap visuals to unpack what’s been happening in 2024 so far.
GO BACK FURTHER IN TIME:
One of the things I’m doing more often today is looking at older comps in the immediate neighborhood. I find myself scouring 2021 onward especially. The truth is there are portions of 2021 and 2022 where prices are exactly the same as today too, so if I use an older comp, I don’t always need to adjust for the way the market has changed. But backing up, I can look at older stuff for the sake of research, but this doesn’t mean I’ll use a super old comp in a report. In short, it’s not enough today to go back 90-180 days because there just aren’t enough data points in so many cases…
WATCH THE MEDIAN TREND
The median price for the region doesn’t translate rigidly to neighborhoods, so be careful about saying stuff like, “The median is up 3% this year, so neighborhood prices are up 3%.” Maybe. Maybe not. Look to the comps most of all. In my experience, some people get really upset when I share median trends because the sentiment is the median isn’t a perfect metric (true)…
EXPAND TO OTHER NEIGHBORHOODS:
Looking up other nearby neighborhoods is something I’ve done much more of lately since sales volume has plummeted. The ideal is to compare areas with similar prices, but even if the price point is a bit different, it can be valuable to see what is happening in a different nearby neighborhood. I may or may not use comps from a different neighborhood. I’m just trying to understand what the market is doing…
To read more and see the graphs with excellent illustrations, Click Here
My comments: Very good tips from Ryan. Market conditions is the easiest adjustment to make. This is my first choice for any unusual homes without current data in any market. I quit making dollar adjustments on form appraisals many years ago, but I always do market conditions adjustments when needed. I appraise a lot of 2-4 units and regularly go to other neighborhoods for comps.
I have been doing this for many years. I do a lot of estate appraisals, which are not current value.
Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!
NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on residential fee appraiser testifies at bias hearing, what happens to Fannie complaints, Why I love real estate appraising, unusual homes, mortgage origination stats, etc.
Posted in: appraisal, bias, Fannie