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Newz Flash: Fannie Mae’s Collateral Underwriter Hacked!!!

A disgruntled man who lost his home to foreclosure did it!! The CU system is completely shut down. No details were available on when, or if, it will be fixed. The un-named man was not available for comment as he is reportedly hiding out in a remote cabin in the woods in a very rural upper Michigan or Canadian location.

He, his wife, and 4 children are now living in a Tiny House on his brother in law’s rural property in Michigan. They lost their suburban 4 bedroom home they had owned for over 20 years to foreclosure. The family has an outhouse, a hand pumped well and wood heat. A small solar power array is used for a computer and Internet connection with a few hours of electricity daily.

Who is in an uproar about this? 

– Not appraisers who don’t like a system that evaluates their appraisals but they don’t know the criteria.
– Not underwriters who are required to learn a new system and do manual reviews of appraisals before sending warnings to appraisers.
– Not loan officers whose deals are taking longer to close. Not borrowers who have to wait longer to get their loans approved.
– Not law enforcement, who don’t think he is a terrorist or a nut holed up with a lot of guns.

FYI, it is April 1 today. You know what that means ;>

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Posted in: Collateral Underwriter, Fannie, lender appraisals

Statistics and Appraisal Data

To keep up on what is happening in appraisal businesses, mortgage lending, USPAP, etc. , Plus humor and strange homes, sign up for my FREE weekly appraisal email newsletter, sent since June 1994. Go to Home on the left side of the menu at the top of this page or go to www.appraisaltoday.com
Sign up in the Big Yellow Boxes

I regularly write about hot topics in appraising and appraisal business management issues
in my paid Appraisal Today monthly newsletter.
$99 per year or (credit card only) $8.25 per month, $24.75 per quarter, or $89 per year.
For more info, go to https://www.appraisaltoday.com/products

 

Statistics and Appraisal Data

The key to any statistical analysis is DATA, DATA, DATA!! Single family real estate data is not very reliable or consistent, and not enough is available in many areas, as we all know.

CU is the most significant attempt to get more useful data by requiring appraisers do use specific coding and criteria. However, real estate is local, local, local. Even the number of bedrooms varies a lot as there are different criteria for determining what is a bedroom, even in the same city. Three appraisers measuring the same house will probably not have the same square footage, as I learned doing relocation appraisals.

9/20 Update.  CU (Collateral Underwriter) has let Fannie obtain lots of data from appraisals. Unfortunately, the data is not available to appraisers. Fannie uses the data to analyze report reliability. 

With CU, this is becoming more obvious as there are sometimes wide variations in how appraisers code factors. For example, why do condition ratings vary? How accurate is MLS? Is public records accurate? What is the best source?

Now that regression software is popular with appraisers for getting adjustments, I have been thinking about why it is often not very reliable. To understand even simple regression requires knowledge.

My first statistics class was in 1963. The first time I used multiple regression was in graduate business school in 1979, when I did a mini-thesis on factors in REIT stock volatility using SPSS.I used a remote university mainframe that kept blowing up and erasing my data. There were no data issues. Doing multiple regression analysis on real estate housing data was not possible. Way too much lack of usable data.

Since I started my Appraisal Today newsletter in 1992, I have been writing about AVMs. The less data that is available, the less reliable the value.

As we all know, AVMs work well in a conforming home in a large tract of similar homes, built in the past 10 years. After that, the accuracy and reliability goes down fast. Just check what Zillow’s Zestimate against your appraised value.

Fannie warning letters – GLA adjustments and lots more coming(Opens in a new browser tab)

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: adjustments, appraisal, Collateral Underwriter, zillow

House for sale set to explode when light switch is turned on

House for sale set to explode when light switch is turned on

Excerpts:

Investigators in two Massachusetts cities were seeking the renters of a house for sale that was intricately wired to explode and cause “significant destruction” if someone had simply flipped a light switch, police said Tuesday night.

“It took some work to put it in there,” said Wells, who described the mechanism as involving wires meticulously snaking through several rooms from a gallon container of an incendiary substance, which was “secreted inside the house,” to a particular light switch.

“We believe the intention was that if someone had flipped the light switch on where it ended, the device would have exploded,” he said.

My comment: Wow!! Be careful out there… especially with disgruntled tenants on a sale!!

Thanks to Douglas R. Doudna for posting this online!!

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/massachusetts-house-sale-was-rigged-explode-police-say-n329601

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: appraisal, unusual home

New FHA 4000.1 handbook – effective 6/15/15

New FHA 4000.1 handbook tidbits –

Publish Date: 03/18/2015 | Effective Date: 06/15/2015

The bulk of the appraisal section starts on pdf page 441 and runs through pdf page 507.

Here are a few tidbits posted online from appraisers who spent the weekend reading it ;>

– The Appraiser must obtain all of the following from the Mortgagee before beginning an appraisal: Any other legal documents contained in the loan file…

– Page 454 on Photos. Front and angle shots of the comps. Hallways on 2-4 units

– Handbook replaces all previous documents, including most Mortgagee Letters.

– Page 447 ii, methamphetamine (meth) contamination

– Page 441: The Appraiser must treat room additions and garage conversions as part of the GLA of the dwelling, provided that the addition or conversion space: …

– Provide 3 year prior sales history for the comps

Will this mean increased time for FHA appraisals? Depends on how much you are doing now. Remember the old VC sheets? They were a hassle!!

My comment: It is not effective until 6/15/15. There will be some webinars, online articles, etc. before that date. I will let you know.

Link to new handbook 4000.1

http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=40001HSGH.pdf

For more details from FHA, see last week’s Appraisal Today email newsletter, in the archives, at:

http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs124/1101648677253/archive/1120449851537.html

For more details from FHA, see last week’s Appraisal Today email newsletter, in the archives, at:

http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs124/1101648677253/archive/1120449851537.html  

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: FHA, lender appraisals

Collateral Underwriter and price per sq.ft. adjustments

To keep up on what is happening in appraisal businesses, mortgage lending, USPAP, etc. , Plus humor and strange homes, sign up for my FREE weekly appraisal email newsletter, sent since June 1994. Go to Home on the left side of the menu at the top of this page or go to www.appraisaltoday.com
Sign up in the Big Yellow Boxes

I regularly write about hot topics in appraising and appraisal business management issues
in my paid Appraisal Today monthly newsletter.
$99 per year or (credit card only) $8.25 per month, $24.75 per quarter, or $89 per year.
For more info, go to https://www.appraisaltoday.com/products

 

From March, 2015 when CU first started
Fannie is using this to show that appraisers have been using adjustments that are too low, resulting in less reliable values. They are often low “legacy” adjustments. Also, GLA adjustment is one of the few factors that work well in regression.

I suggest using replacement cost new less depreciation. For replacement cost you can use local builders or cost service such as Marshall & Swift, whichever is more accurate in your area. Then take off depreciation. The result is depreciated cost. Divide by GLA. The result is depreciated cost per sq.ft.

Fannie uses price divided by sq.ft. which does not consider land value or depreciation, information which Fannie does not have available.

For example, builders cost on a property is $100 per sq.ft. Your estimated physical depreciation is 30%. Obviously, $25 per sq.ft. adjustment is not correct. There may be functional or external depreciation, which you can include. Be sure to include how you determined your GLA adjustment in your appraisal.

Market based GLA adjustments are better, such as matched paired sales but the method above will work as a guideline.

Why are adjustments low? To comply with the 15/25% adjustment guideline, which Fannie has removed. It was never a requirement. Fannie has never had a 10% per line adjustment guideline. Of course lenders and AMCs can still require the use of the 15/25% adjustment which could be a big problem for appraisers which can result in less reliable values. I never considered the 15/25 guideline in any of my appraisals, but I never worked for lenders or AMCs who required that appraisals conform to it.

Check out the graphs on GLA and 15%/25% adjustments in the FAQ document below. I included 4 of them in this month’s paid Appraisal Today newsletter.

Get the facts about what Fannie is saying, not just rumor and speculation. Subscribe to the paid Appraisal Today!!

https://www.fanniemae.com/content/announcement/ll1502.pdf

Appraisal Humor

Appraisal business tips

A very, very funny appraiser video!

Fannie warning letters – GLA adjustments and lots more coming(Opens in a new browser tab)

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: 1004MC, AMCs, appraisal management company, Collateral Underwriter, forecast, lender appraisals

Collateral Underwriter warning messages and Every Increasing Scope Creep from all sources

My latest opinions and observations, as of today

Fannie does not want appraisers to receive warning messages unless a “human” has reviewed the appraisal report. They want to reassure real estate agents mostly that appraisals will not be delayed. Of course, I have no idea how many underwriters have the time to read the 30+ page report. Maybe they can search the report for what they are looking. I am sure this is/will be slowing down loans.

But, I keep thinking that even if appraisers received a few CU warning messages, it is a small, small percent of all the stips from all the review software that AMCs use. No one seems to notice that appraisals take longer the more stips that appraisers receive. Particularly, when all the stips are not sent at the same time. No one seems to notice this, or care about it, except appraisers!!

These non-CU stips are mostly from arbitrary “rules” which CU does not use. Such as: picky UAD stips, “add 2 more comps”, or please review the list of “comps” from the real estate agent or borrower. Some are still using the 15%/25% adjustment rule.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: AMCs, appraisal management company, Collateral Underwriter, forecast, lender appraisals

CU – subject vs. comp data. I want the subject data!!

Fannie says that typically there are around 7 UAD records per property. However, most of them must be from appraisers who used it as a comp. Why should we be compared with appraisers who used the property as a comp?

I want access to CU property data from appraisers who did an appraisal on the subject property, not from appraisers who used it as a comp. I want CU to use this data to compare my appraisal data with “peers”. Comp data is not very reliable as it usually comes from MLS and public records. Fannie says that MLS and public records are not as reliable as data from the appraiser who appraised the property for the sale.
Maybe the appraiser had seen the interior of the comp recently, but this is very unlikely. Also, I go on the MLS tour/caravan almost ever week, but I don’t spend a lot of time at each open house. Well..I do spend more time if there is good food ;> MLS photos are subject to interpretation as they are done for sales purposes. I make brief notes on the flyers and file them in binders, going back to 1990.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: Collateral Underwriter, Fannie, lender appraisals, Reviews

Fannie’s new Collateral Underwriter (CU) FAQs updated

Fannie’s new Collateral Underwriter (CU) FAQs updated – not dated but available on Feb. 25
Why does Fannie keep saying appraisals there will be minimal, or no effect, on appraisal turn times? The real estate agents are worried about delaying closings.
For now, since few appraisers are receiving warnings, the underwriters appear to be slowing down the processing as they are responsible for decided which, if any, warnings to send to appraisers, after reading the 30+ page appraisal reports.
These FAQs mostly clarify what they have said before, but there is some interesting new information.
The first two pages has the new FAQs updates,
Here is some of the new info:
– Fannie Mae does not instruct or suggest to lenders that they ask the appraiser to address all or any of the 20 comparables that are provided by CU for most appraisals.
– (Underwriters) Carefully review the appraisal report before seeking additional clarification from the appraiser based on CU findings.
– Fannie Mae expects lenders to use human due diligence in combination with the CU findings, and will actively follow up with lenders who are reported to be asking appraisers to change their reports based on CU findings without any further due diligence by the lender.
– Fannie Mae encourages lenders to carefully review the appraisal report – including all commentary – before seeking clarification from the appraiser. Don’t assume the appraiser is wrong just because you see a CU message. Taking messages or alternative sales at face value and simply asking your appraiser to address them is neither effective nor efficient. CU is intended to supplement a lender’s human due diligence. After completing a thorough review, lenders should be able to have constructive dialogue with appraisers to resolve specific appraisal questions or concerns. Lenders should not, however, make demands or provide
instructions to the appraiser based solely on automated feedback.
It is also available on the main CU link at www.fanniemae.com/singlefamily/collateral-underwriter

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: appraisers, Collateral Underwriter, Fannie, lender appraisals

Collateral Underwriter – appraisal access to data and CU

Should CU be transparent? Poll results
Poll results from ICAP poll – Illinois Coaltion of Appraisal Professionals, a very active appraisal political action group. www.icap.com
—————————–
Excerpt:
A few of the results of the 10 questions:
Q1 Should Fannie Mae make CU transparent?
Yes – 89%
No – 6%
Uncertain – 5%
Q3 Will CU risk scores cause Lenders and AMC clients to request appraisers to fit comps to the CU model?
Yes – 69%
No – 5%
Uncertain – 26%
Q5 Do you think the intent of CU is to
replace the appraiser?
Yes – 53%
No – 25%
Undecided – 22%
Download the results
—————-
Online petition to allow appraisers access to CU UAD data
ICAP also has a petition to Fannie Mae that created 11/10/14. “Online Petition to allow appraiser access to data they provided through the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD).”
Excerpt:
The GSE’s have mandated that all appraisals be submitted in the UAD format; however, currently there are no plans to provide appraisers access to this data.
This data needs to be provided to appraisers at the beginning of the appraisal process; ensuring transparency, and improving the process by reducing risk to lenders and the general public.
Sign the petition at http://icapweb.com/petition.php  Plus read the very interesting comments from appraisers!!
————————–
My opinion: I support the petition asking Fannie to let appraisers get the data that we submitted!! CU transparency is more difficult, for various reasons.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: Collateral Underwriter, Fannie

Appraisal adjustments "The Dirty Little Secret"

A Few CU Factoids
– Not all loans go to Fannie – VA, FHA, jumbo, etc.
– Fannie guidelines, including CU, are the minimum. Lenders can add their own, even keeping 15-25% adjustments.
– Lenders are not required to use CU.
– CU sends out appraisal warning messages for adjustments on: GLA, lot size, view, condition, quality, and location. For now.
– Gradual implementation of CU’s web based interface, which has the infamous “20 comps”, mapping, etc. Not available to AMCs.
A few CU comments and opinions from me:
I need a Book of Adjustments!!! Maybe a few of Fannie’s will “leak” – wiki leaks ;>
– AMCs are now asking for adjustment support from non-CU adjustments. More Scope Creep??
– Mass confusion on what gets sent from underwriter to AMC to appraiser – warnings, Risk Scores, etc.
– The recent Fannie Letter to Lenders about CU said that the intent is not to overwhelm appraisers with warning messages. But, are underwriters going to read (and understand) 30+ page appraisals? I’m glad I’m not an underwriter!!
– How to respond to warning messages – not clear.
– Requests from AMCs include CU and non-CU requests. Sometimes hard to tell where they are from.
Adjustments – the “Dirty Little Secret” of Fannie Form Appraisal Reports
I can’t think of any time a client asked me for my support on an adjustment prior to CU. They have been accepting the usual responses, which are in many boilerplates: Based on my many years… or matched paired sales… etc.

A critical issue to me is that the dollar adjustments seem to indicate that residential appraisal values are precise and very accurate, which is not correct. There are lots of factors affecting home sales as compared with income property such as apartments and commercial property.

I have asked many very experienced appraisers how they “support” adjustments. Most use “rules of thumb”, such as using a percent of price per sq.ft. for GLA. But, this number includes land. Or, they use adjustments they were given when they were new appraisers. Of course, if you only appraise conforming homes in conforming tracts built in the past 10 years, it is much, much easier.
For now, CU only sends out warning messages for these adjustments: GLA, lot size, view, condition, quality, and location. This is a very small percent of all the UAD coded data. Plus, some data is not UAD coded, such as pools. But, many state regulators expect to see support for all adjustments in your work files.
We all need a Book of Adjustments ;>
Of course, all of us have adjustments that we have accumulated over the years, or recently developed. But, with CU we are being compared to peer and model adjustments. Of course, no one tells us who or what they are. Sometimes appraisers are given this information.
Regression to support adjustments
Regression will not work for all adjustments. It works well in conforming tracts less than 10 years old. After that, it goes downhill. This has been shown many times for AVMs. I really wish I could just buy regression software and have it calculate them all for me!!
Using qualitative adjustments
I did my first SFR appraisals this week without not making any dollar adjustments when I use form reports for non-lending work. I did make time adjustments (which are very easy to support) as the effective date was June, 2014, when prices were increasing rapidly in my market.
I used plus and minus signs in the grid. I use the 2005 Fannie forms but do not use the Fannie certification or limiting conditions. I use my own.
For awhile in the late 80s or early 90s Fannie had a form with pluses and minuses, so I had some experience. Also I don’t use dollar adjustments in my 5+ unit apartments or commercial appraisals.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Posted in: adjustments, AMCs, appraisal, Collateral Underwriter, Fannie, lender appraisals, Reviews