Appraisal News and Business Tips

Posts Tagged forecast

AQB – possible changes to college degree, practicum, alternative experience, etc.

AQB wants comments on possible changes to college degree, practicum, alternative experience, etc.
Comments deadline March 31, 2016
College degree – alternative for licensed upgrade to certified
My comments: I keep hearing from appraisers that college graduates have lots of high paying opportunities. But, these types of jobs are only for engineering, computer science, etc. jobs. Some with business degrees from highly rated schools can get “Wall Street” jobs. Not for the vast majority of graduates with degrees in English, psychology, etc. I don’t know how realistic it is to offer a route from Licensed to Certified with no 4 year degree required since few lender clients will accept licensed appraisers and their numbers have dropped significantly.
Practicum – alternative experience up to 50%
My comment: I studied science in college and spent many afternoons in labs. When I graduated I was ready to go to work and needed no training. This is a significant problem for appraisers.
The only appraisal class I ever had with practical experience was a junior college appraisal class taught by a real estate agent. We all appraised his home using Fannie forms. A practicum was offered awhile ago by the AQB but was too difficult to set up and none were ever offered. Hopefully, these new requirements will be easier and, more important, include hands-on appraisal experience.
Click here to read the full document
My comments: Lender appraising has been a boom and bust business since Fannie and Freddie started securitizing loans in the 1960s, requiring armies of new appraisers during the booms with most laid off during the busts. Everyone seems to forget this. The current licensing system does not consider it.
Of course, the biggest problem today is lenders not allowing trainees to sign on their own. Lenders can solve this problem now. The draft recognizes this problem. But, AMCs (low fees and  Scope Creep) are the most significant reason for the “brain drain” of experienced residential appraisers leaving the profession since 2008. Retiring baby boomers is another factor.
Who is worried about an appraiser shortage? The Appraisal Foundation’s income will go down. AMCs will have fewer appraisers to broadcast cheap fees. Finding appraisers in rural areas will be more difficult, but this has always been a problem. Lenders are hoping maybe they can use AMCs or “alternative products” because of the shortage. Of course, not much of this applies to commercial appraising, only to residential AMC work.

Appraisal Today newsletter

Newz// 2-11-16 – Quicken Rocket Mortgage Super Bowl Ad-Tweet O Mania-Price per sq.ft.

Jonathan Miller’s Feb. 5 great comments on Miller-Samuel Housing NotesA few of the topics:

Repo Man Flipping Out In Housing’s Waves – 1 hour and 46 minutes recording of a Bloomberg interview with Miller. Appraisal related discussion starts at about 1 hour, 6 minutes.

Deja Vu All Over Again? Big meeting with lenders and borrowers. Credit issues, deceived borrowers, etc. Miller was the moderator.

Flint Water Crisis – includes Sacramento CA appraiser Ryan Lundquists blog interview with a Flint real estate agents – lenders don’t want to lend

My comment: I can’t wait to see what Miller says about the Superbowl ads!!

Check it out at:

http://www.millersamuel.com/note/february-5-2016/?goal=0_69c077008e-4f154d8430-111272681

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New Trouble Knocks Flint as Mortgage Firms Require Proof of Safe Water

Lenders say they won’t give mortgages unless buyers offer proof of safe water

Excerpt:

The severity of the Flint, Michigan, water crisis continues to plague residents, who now have to deal with the possibility that buyers won’t be able to secure home loans in the area, an article in The Wall Street Journal by Joe Light said.

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36212-flint-water-crisis-now-impacts-mortgage-lending

My comment: I am hearing from appraisers that some lenders want proof of safe water in other places. More Scope Creep. Can’t tell by looking at it. Has to be tested.

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FHA water quality notices

Thanks to James Shoe for these links!!

 

FHA with a notice about concerns they have for water contamination, especially in Genesse County (Flint Michigan).  They provided a link to their Knowledge Base FAQ http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/FHAFAQ

 

The article specifically addressing Flint is found at http://hudgov.prod.parature.com/link/portal/57345/57355/Article/8684/Does-FHA-have-any-policies-requiring-water-testing-in-Flint-Michigan-and-its-surrounding-areas

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3 ways price per sq ft is valuable in real estate (even for appraisers) From Ryan Lundquist’s blog. He writes for real estate agents, but some of his posts apply to appraisers also.

Excerpts:

My name is Ryan and I use price per sq ft in real estate. There it is. My confession. Are you surprised? I know you’ve heard me talk about how price per sq ft is one of the most abused metrics out there. I still believe that. Yet there are several ways price per sq ft is actually valuable and useful for real estate professionals (even appraisers). So let’s kick around some ideas together below.

1)  Price Per Sq Ft Helps Us See the Entire Market: What have buyers been willing to pay in a neighborhood? It’s valuable to see the price per sq ft spectrum to help answer this question. What is the high, the low, and the average? I ran a CMA of sales over the past 90 days in the Mather neighborhood in Sacramento County (a tract subdivision), and the price per sq ft range is $112 to $206

Appraiser application: Sometimes appraisers mock price per sq ft and treat it like a meaningless metric, but there is actually some real value in using it. Not only can we get a more detailed sense of the market, but we can also communicate well with clients. Consider paying close attention to competitive price per sq ft figures (I know, this may not work in rural markets). If you are coming in lower or higher than the competitive range in the neighborhood, just be sure you know why and can explain why. Also, consider using price per sq ft figures in your final reconciliation. For instance, along with statements about comps, I regularly find myself saying things like: “The final value is also supported by trend graphs as well as competitive price per sq ft figures in the neighborhood.”

Click here to read the other two reasons and the comments.

http://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/2016/02/08/3-ways-price-per-sq-ft-is-valuable-in-real-estate-even-for-appraisers

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Adjustments – what to do or not to do?

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New in the FEBRUARY 2016 issue of the paid Appraisal Today

Adjustments Part 1 – Are you making too many adjustments? Lots of ideas, research, etc.

– Support vs. proof for adjustments by Bob Keith. A very good explanation of Scope Creep on adjustments. He is the former Executive Director 

of the Oregon State Appraisal Board and is a consultant for appraisers with state board complaints

Identifying Residential Architectural Styles by Mark Nadeau,SRA, Book review. Read my review to decide if you want to buy the book.                        

Two good, practical residential books, with very good tips on adjustments  Book reviews. 

The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, 6th Edition – Read my review to decide if you want to buy this book. 

Coming in the March 2016 issue:

– Adjustments Part 2 – what adjustment methods do you want to use. There are well over 20 methods.

– How to use your Web site to get non-lender work. The easiest marketing method, by far!! I get half of my non-lender work from my Web site.

Cancel at any time. For any reason!!

To purchase the paid Appraisal Today newsletter  go to

www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or call 800-839-0227. 

$8.25 per month, $24.75 per quarter, $89 per year (credit card only),  

or $99 per year or $169 for two years (no credit card required) 

Subscribers get, FREE: past 18+ months of newsletters plus 4 Special Reports!!

If you are a paid subscriber and did not get the February 2016 issue, emailed Feb. 4, 2016, please send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com  requesting it and we will send it to you!! Or, hit the reply button. Be sure to put in a comment requesting it ;>

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Quicken loan Superbowl Rocket Mortgage ad – Tweet-O-Mania!!

Excerpt:

Social media quickly blew up with comments from people convinced Quicken’s product will usher in a second housing crisis by lending to unqualified borrowers. And then the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau joined in.

The CFPB’s tweet – which was posted shortly after the Rocket Mortgage commercial aired, but doesn’t expressly refer to Quicken Loans or the Super Bowl – implicitly warns consumers to be wary of technology in the mortgage application process.

Given that the CFPB has been aggressively pushing a paperless agenda, the response highlights the cognitive dissonance in the messages it and other regulators send to the mortgage industry about how and when to use technology.

See the ad and some of the tweets here:

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/voices/quicken-renews-debate-over-how-fast-is-too-fast-to-get-a-mortgage-1071520-1.html

More commentary in this link:

Quicken Loans Super Bowl ad strikes wrong nerve with Twitteratti and journalists Why let the facts get in the way of fun?

http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/36230-quicken-loans-super-bowl-ad-strikes-wrong-nerve-with-twitteratti-and-journalists

My comment: I watched the Quicken loans ad. Seemed ok to me. For decades, lots of people have been saying “why does a mortgage loan take weeks or months and I can go to an auto dealership and drive out with an expensive car in an 1-2 hours?”

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Super Bowl 50: A Housing Highlight Reel contrasts between 1966 and 2016 in Charlotte NC and Denver C 

Excerpt:

Census number-crunchers rounded up a collection of facts comparing life back in 1967 to present-day. The play-by-play includes housing stats.

Here are a few stats:

In 1966, The U.S. population was 197.5 million.

The median sales price of a new, single-family home was just $22,700.

In 2016, The U.S. population is 322.8 million-up 63 percent from 1967.The median sales price of a new, single-family home is $282,800.

I shoulda bought something in 1966!! Check it all out and see stats for Charlotte, NC and Denver.

http://blog.rismedia.com/2016/super-bowl-50-a-housing-highlight-reel/ ok

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10 Things to Know About Commercial Real Estate Appraisal

Comments by Douglas McKnight, a 22-year veteran commercial real estate appraiser. Written for small business owners.

Excerpt:

Small business owners have a lot to digest when it comes to the subject of commercial real estate-especially these days. That goes double for the notion of obtaining an appraisal on a piece of commercial real estate, a process that can differ quite a bit from appraisals done for residential properties. “Commercial is very different from residential in the fact that appraisals are much more subjective in nature,” says Scott Everett, founder and president of Supreme Lending, a mortgage lender in Dallas. “Much of the value derived from a commercial building is based on the rental rates received relative to the expenses paid out. The underlying asset is important, but not even close to the same way that a residential properties value assets.”

Don’t miss the comments. Originally published in May, 2011. Not much has changed since then for small commercial properties except that loans are a bit easier to obtain. Dramatically different appraisal requirements from residential AMC Scope Creep mania!!

http://www.inc.com/guides/201105/10-things-about-commercial-real-estate-appraisal.html 

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my printed newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications increased 9.3 percent from one week earlier 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 10, 2016) – Mortgage applications increased 9.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 5, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago 

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 61.2 percent of total applications from 59.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4 percent of total applications 

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 12.3 percent from 12.9 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications remained unchanged from 11.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.6 percent from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since April 2015, 3.91 percent, from 3.97 percent, with points unchanged at  0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to its lowest level since April 2013, 3.76 percent, from 3.84 percent, with points increasing to 0.30 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week 

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to its lowest level since May 2015, 3.72 percent, from 3.80 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to its lowest level since April 2015, 3.18 percent, from 3.22 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week 

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 2.96 percent, from 3.00 percent, with points decreasing to 0.30 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

 

 
To purchase the paid Appraisal Today newsletter  go to

www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or call 800-839-0227. 

 

NEWZ// 2-4-16 – Adjustments-Unwanted mansions-Why homeowners don’t refi-Loan buybacks

 5 Reasons Homeowners are not Taking Advantage of Refi Opportunities

Excerpts:

Historically low mortgage rates have been circling the housing market for several years now. Low mortgage rates present opportunities for homeowners to refinance their homes, but recent data and analysis shows that they are not taking advantage of billions of dollars in savings.

Although the number of refinancers may appear to be large, it is actually down from over 7 million in April 2015. Black Knight reports that interest rates were under 3.7 percent during this time, and the 20-year rate was 3.96.

Black Knight Data & Analytics SVP Ben Graboske explained, “This population is diminishing, and as mortgage interest rates rise, it will only continue to shrink further.”

Here are the five:

Lower credit scores and income.

Hassle and upfront expense.

Not enough equity.

Inconsistent job history.

Lack of assets.  

Lots more info plus a link to the original study.

http://www.themreport.com/news/data/01-25-2016/5-reasons-homeowners-are-not-taking-advantage-of-refi-opportunities

My comment: interesting analysis plus a link to the nerdwallet full analysis. I have always wondered why so few people are not doing refis with rates still at historic lows.

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 CU Quick Guide Videos Now AvailableNew short videos (~4 min) show how to easily use the Collateral Underwriter® (CU™) web application to research common messages. Watch the Quick Guide Intro to the Comp Selection Message to see how to use CU to review appraisals with a material difference between the appraiser-provided and CU model-selected comparable sale rankings. The Quick Guide to Data Discrepancy Messages shows how to quickly view other appraiser observations when there is a discrepancy in reported data (either from what the appraiser previously reported or from what other appraisers have reported.) Want to learn how other lenders have leveraged CU? Review this new Housing Industry Forum article which details how lenders that maximize the use of CU have been able to make the underwriting process more efficient while improving appraisal quality and reducing appraisal-related loan defects.Additional CU live webinar dates are also now available:

CU User Interface Basic Training: Feb 10, 2016 from 2 – 3:30 p.m. ET

CU User Interface Advanced Training: Feb. 18, 2016 from 2 – 3:30 p.m. ET

Maximize your Appraisal Review Efficiency and Effectiveness with CU: Feb. 24, 2016 from 2 – 3 p.m. ET

For more information on CU visit the CU web page. 

My comment: see how CU works, from the lender side. 

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America’s Most Unwanted: The Neverland Ranch and Other Unsold $100 Million Mega-Mansions

Excerpt:

Michael Jackson’s $100 million Neverland-formally known as Sycamore Valley Ranch-is still stuck on the block.

Listed last May (sans the King of Pop’s amusement park), the 2,698-acre compound in Los Olivos showcases a 12,598-square-foot, French Normandy-style main house with six bedrooms and nine baths. Other structures include three separate guesthouses, a 5,500-square-foot movie theater with a stage, numerous barns, animal shelter facilities, and a maintenance shop.

Check them all out at:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kristintablang/2016/01/26/100-million-mega-mansions-for-sale-neverland-ranch-jeff-greene-rancho-san-carlos-palazzo-di-amore-le-palais-royal

My comment: if they ever do sell… very, very long exposure times!

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Adjustments – “Support” vs. “Proof, what should you do?

New in the FEBRUARY 2016 issue of the paid Appraisal Today

Adjustments Part 1 – Are you making too many adjustments? Lots of ideas, research, etc.

– Support vs. proof for adjustments by Bob Keith. A very good explanation of Scope Creep on adjustments. He is the former Executive Director 

of the Oregon State Appraisal Board and is a consultant for appraisers with state board complaints

Identifying Residential Architectural Styles by Mark Nadeau,SRA, Book review. Read my review to decide if you want to buy the book.                        

Two good, practical residential books, with very good tips on adjustments  Book reviews. 

The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, 6th Edition – Read my review to decide if you want to buy this book. 

Cancel at any time. For any reason!!

$8.25 per month, $24.75 per quarter, $89 per year (credit card only),  

or $99 per year or $169 for two years (no credit card required) 

Subscribers get, FREE: past 18+ months of newsletters plus 4 Special Reports!!

If you are a paid subscriber and did not get the January 2016 issue, emailed Jan. 4, 2016, please send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com  requesting it and we will send it to you!! Or, hit the reply button. Be sure to put in a comment requesting it ;>

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Fannie, Freddie Unveil New Appeals Process for Loan Repurchases

Excerpt:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled an appeals process Tuesday that will allow an independent arbitrator to resolve disputes between lenders and the government-sponsored enterprises over loan repurchase demands.

The new independent dispute resolution process, which was approved by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and endorsed by the Mortgage Bankers Association, is an effort to provide lenders more certainty that they won’t later face costly repurchase requests if a loan goes bad.

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/secondary/fannie-freddie-unveil-new-appeals-process-for-loan-repurchases-1071121-1.html

My comment: Maybe lenders will be less paranoid about appraisals causing buybacks and cut back on Excessive Appraisal Requirements.

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One-third of realty transactions are plagued by delays, some of them fatal By Ken Harney

Excerpt:

According to the study, of the 32 percent that experienced delays, 46 percent were triggered by “financing issues,” which is up from 40 percent during the first half of 2015. Appraisal-related problems caused 21 percent of the delays and home-inspection issues in 14 percent. Of the nearly 1 of every 16 (6 percent) of deals that turned into total disasters and fell through, home inspection and financing were the primary culprits. Sixteen percent went south because of the appraisal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/one-third-of-realty-transactions-are-plagued-by-delays-some-of-them-fatal/2016/01/19/0d74d684-beb9-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html 

My comment: maybe that’s why some AMCs are pressuring/asking for more when you “come in” under the sales price. Their clients, the lenders, don’t like deals falling through…

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Study finds discrepancies between reported and actual home sales prices By Ken Harney

Are some realty agents hyping the pricing information on closed sales they report to their local multiple listing service, or MLS? And if so, should you care?

A first-of-its-kind study by appraisal and real estate experts suggests that maybe they are and maybe you should. Researchers compared closing documents – which are supposed to indicate the final price in sales transactions – with the prices that agents actually reported to their MLS and found that in nearly 1 of every 11 cases (8.75 percent) there were discrepancies. Overstatements of final price exceeded understatements by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. In one case, the price reported to the MLS was 21.4 percent above the actual closing price.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/study-finds-discrepancies-between-reported-and-actual-sales-prices/2016/01/26/86d11660-c435-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html

My comment: And AMCs worry about discrepancies on public records and appraisers on GLA!! Another reason Big Data (CU) fails and needs appraiser input. 

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my printed newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 3, 2016) – Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 29, 2016.  The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 0.3 percent from the previous week to its highest level since October 2015.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 59.2 percent of total applications from 59.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.9 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 12.9 percent from 12.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications remained unchanged from 11.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 3.97 percent, from 4.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from  0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  This is the fourth straight weekly decrease for this rate.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to its lowest level since April 2015,  3.84 percent, from 3.89 percent, with points increasing to 0.26 from 0.25 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  This is the fourth straight weekly decrease for this rate.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.80 percent from 3.83 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.22 percent from 3.28 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.00 percent from 3.09 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100

 
To purchase the paid Appraisal Today newsletter  go to

www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or call 800-839-0227. 

 

NEWZ// 1-28-16 Not C-R fees-fined/AI twitter hacked/Building permits?/50 castles/adjustments

 

50 castles in 50 states

Excerpt:

The United States of America is not typically thought of as a land of castles, and with good reason-the uniting of the American states coincided, not coincidentally, with the beginning of the end of the era in which kings and queens ruled over everything, holing up in huge fortified houses so that the peasants and/or invading barbarians couldn’t kill them.

But in a way, that’s too bad, because the U.S.A. is a land of excess, and there’s nothing more excessive than a castle. And there are some castles in this country-maybe more than you’d expect-which range from (mostly) vanity projects, to mini golf courses, to even a few places that originally served some military purpose. Not only that, but many of them are currently for sale. If you’ve ever dreamed of owning a castle of your own, you could, for as little as a few hundred thousand dollars, or as much as a over ten million. (If you want to have your wedding in a castle, the options are even more vast.) In fact, we found a castle in every state in the U.S.A

Here are a few:

– This Illinois Castle Costs a Mere $795,000

– Majestic Castle in the Adirondacks Offers Turrets, Knights, and – Secret Passageways for $12.8M

– Ludicrous $4.9M Texas Castle Really Loves Turrets

My comment: Photos and links for more info for all 50 castles!!

Easy to view – scroll down the page, no excessive popup ads.

Check it out at:

http://curbed.com/tags/castle

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Appraisal volume starts to lose momentum

Reverses last week’s rise

Posted January 26, 2016

 

Excerpts:

Appraisal volume erased most of last week’s rise, falling 4.1% for the week of Jan. 17, the most recent report from a la mode, an appraisal forms software company that tracks appraisal volume throughout the country, showed.

A week ago, appraisal volume grew 5%, following a strong surge the week prior.

“While appraisal volume started the year with a strong recovery from the Christmas and New Year slump, it has not seen the energy that mortgage applications have shown. This is perplexing but could be because of lenders still getting used to the new TRID procedures and delaying ordering appraisals or just that the applications are falling out and not turning into mortgages,” he continued.

Click here to read other comments and see the data.

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36111-appraisal-volume-starts-to-lose-momentum 

My comment: this report is posted every week. Please also see the MBA Weekly Mortgage Loan Origination volume report at the end of every weekly email newsletter, posted on Friday. Appraisal ordering follows originations, so MBA is slightly ahead of the a la mode report.

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POLL: Do you check to see if permits were pulled on remodeling on subject properties?

Source: www.appraisalport.com Vote in their current poll: 

Do you consider appraisal trade groups important to the industry?

My comment: A controversial topic. I’m not surprised at the results. However, if permits are online and free I don’t know why appraisers would not get them. In my city, free online records only go back to about 1970. Most of the homes were built before 1940. It costs $15.25 to get a full permit history and it can take up to a week to get it. The old records are a bit flakey, such as “remodeling” or something else very obscure. Lots and lots of unpermitted work in my city. But, in nearby cities with a lot of tract homes built since 1950, work without permits is not done very often. I was told by a lender’s chief appraiser many years ago not to pull permits so the borrower would “not get into trouble”.For quite awhile, I have been pulling the old permits when needed and run the online permits on all properties. In other cities, if something does not “look right”, such as an addition, I pull the permits. 

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS TOPIC? POST YOUR COMMENTS AT www.appraisaltodayblog.com !

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Coming in the February 2015 Appraisal Today paid newsletter, available Monday, Feb. 1 

Adjustments, Part 1 – Are you making too many adjustments 

Huge change in supporting adjustments since Fannie’s CU started looking at them. State regulators also want to see adjustment support – don’t get sanctioned. Some reviewers want to see support. Etc. 

Some of the topics: 

– How are appraisers supporting adjustments?

– What are the most frequent adjustments?

– What are state appraisal boards looking for?

– What is CU looking for?

– Do adjustments really make a difference in the final value?

– Qualitative vs. Quantitative adjustments

– The best adjustment sources of information

Part 2 will be on types of adjustments. 

FREE TIP: 

NO ADJUSTMENT SUPPORT METHOD WILL WORK FOR ALL ADJUSTMENTS.  

Cancel at any time. For any reason!! 

To purchase the paid Appraisal Today newsletter  go to

www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or call 800-839-0227. 

$8.25 per month, $24.75 per quarter, $89 per year (credit card only),  

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Appraisal Institute falls victim to Twitter hack

Posted January 22, 2016, last Thursday

Excerpt:

Instead of tweets about the appraisal industry, tweets emanating from the Appraisal Institute’s account for the last 18 hours or so have more to do with Playboy Magazine, Hooters, David Hasselhoff, links to “sexy” videos, and other inappropriate tweets. 

Among other tweets, the hacked Appraisal Institute account tweeted out “to all staff and employees: because its so warm out today, you have to work an extra 2 hours pretending to do actual work” and “new company policy in effect: at social gatherings and events, having fun during such events is forbidden. Unless authorized.”

 As of last Friday: “It appears that the Appraisal Institute Twitter hacking of 2016 is now over, but we’ll always have the screenshots.”

Very interesting. All the old tweets were lost, except for re-tweets. See lots more, including some of the tweets at:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36086

 Comments from the Appraisal Institute: ” The Appraisal Institute’s Twitter account and YouTube channel were compromised last week. Twitter has since been restored, temporarily using the handle: @RealAI_National. We’re in the process of restoring our YouTube channel.” Regarding who did it: “We are investigating the matter and have no further comment at this time.”

 

My comments: I knew I shoulda re-subscribed to the AI twitter feed!! I originally subscribed in 2010 but have not been getting any tweets. I have never had any twitter feed I subscribe to get hacked… I think that the AI will get a lot of new Twitter subscribers, including me!! Subscribe to @RealAI_National. Currently 3,936 followers.  

At the bottom of the article is a comment post by Jason Constantine: “This was the work of one, former disgruntled employee with a shady criminal past. He was jaded because he was replaced with another programmer and wouldn’t take a background check. Can’t prove it but he’s hacked me several times in the past.” Makes sense to me. You don’t get much notoriety from hacking the AI. When you read the tweets in the article, it definitely sounds like an employee. Some are sorta funny ;             

 
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AMC Fined Over C&R Fees

Excerpts:

The Louisiana Real Estate Appraisal Board (LREAB) has again taken action to ensure that Customary and Reasonable (C&R) Fees are being paid by AMCs and lenders in the state.

On December 8, 2015, after a hearing that lasted over 12 hours and was closely watched and attended by appraisers, AMCs, and lenders alike, the Board ruled against iMortgage Services, LLC and issued a Final Order that included a fine of $10,000 and a six-month license suspension. The suspension was stayed, provided that iMortgage provides a C&R compliance plan to the Board no later than March 21, 2016 

In contrast to Louisiana’s previous C&R enforcement action involving Coester VMS, where there was no admission of guilt by Coester, this is the first judgement against an AMC that leaves no question on the determination of guilt. The Board’s final order establishes that iMortgage failed to comply with Louisiana law and violated the C&R fee requirements set in place by the Board.

Demonstrating the glacial speed at which many state board investigations operate, the initial complaint against iMortgage was filed two years ago in January 2014 after iMortgage sent out an appraisal order for a full 1004MC FHA appraisal with a fee of $200. The investigation was not opened until May 2014, with the hearing taking place in December 2015.

My comment: Almost 300 postings at http://appraisersforum.com/ . Search for AMC Fined For Not Paying C&R Fees. Warning: lots of chit chat, etc, typical for AIforum Just wade through them to get to what you want. Comments also posted after the article. 

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Very interesting workingre article. Read more here:

http://www.workingre.com/AMC-fined-over-cr-fees 

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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, go to www.mbaa.org 

Note: I publish a graph of this data every month in my printed newsletter, Appraisal Today. For more information or get a FREE sample issue go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products.htm  or send an email to info@appraisaltoday.com . Or call 800-839-0227, MTW 8AM to noon, Pacific time.

Mortgage applications increased 8.8 percent from one week earlier 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 27, 2015) – Mortgage applications increased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2016.  This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

 

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 59.0 percent of total applications from 59.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.9 percent of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications decreased to 12.7 percent from 13.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.1 percent from 10.8 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged from 0.7 percent the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since October 2015, 4.02 percent, from 4.06 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from  0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) decreased to 3.89 percent from 3.93 percent, with points decreasing to 0.25 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.83 percent from 3.86 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.28 percent from 3.29 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 3.09 percent from 3.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.18 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mba.org.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100

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Housing Forecast: The Present is a Lagging Indicator, and Sometimes it Rhymes

Some Very Interesting comments from Jonathan Miller’s Housing Notes

May 8, 2015

Excerpt:

Earlier this week I came across a brilliant tweet – that when applied in the context of housing, spoke for a lot of the gimmicky click-bait research that comprises a large swath of housing market news coverage.

The present is a lagging indicator.

— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) May 3, 2015

 

While I plan to use that quote extensively, my favorite remains one by Mark Twain (supposedly). It is especially useful when making comparisons to the the boom, bubble, bust cycle of the prior decade.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

I prefer my adapted version:

History doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

So much of what we read or think about housing is backward looking or a provides a current view based on a prior event that had a completely different set of circumstance and worst of all, a lack of context. Sound bites relied on by market participants and media often have limited applicability to specific situations and perspectives.

Link to the full Housing Notes issue:

http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=47540980899c1d755b4cddc48&id=9493fa8875&e=e758e759fb

My comment: I love Jonathan Millers writing, speaking etc. The only appraiser I know who is widely quoted, and interviewed, in the media!!

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Collateral Underwriter – appraisal access to data and CU

Should CU be transparent? Poll results
Poll results from ICAP poll – Illinois Coaltion of Appraisal Professionals, a very active appraisal political action group. www.icap.com
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Excerpt:
A few of the results of the 10 questions:
Q1 Should Fannie Mae make CU transparent?
Yes – 89%
No – 6%
Uncertain – 5%
Q3 Will CU risk scores cause Lenders and AMC clients to request appraisers to fit comps to the CU model?
Yes – 69%
No – 5%
Uncertain – 26%
Q5 Do you think the intent of CU is to
replace the appraiser?
Yes – 53%
No – 25%
Undecided – 22%
Download the results
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Online petition to allow appraisers access to CU UAD data
ICAP also has a petition to Fannie Mae that created 11/10/14. “Online Petition to allow appraiser access to data they provided through the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD).”
Excerpt:
The GSE’s have mandated that all appraisals be submitted in the UAD format; however, currently there are no plans to provide appraisers access to this data.
This data needs to be provided to appraisers at the beginning of the appraisal process; ensuring transparency, and improving the process by reducing risk to lenders and the general public.
Sign the petition at http://icapweb.com/petition.php  Plus read the very interesting comments from appraisers!!
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My opinion: I support the petition asking Fannie to let appraisers get the data that we submitted!! CU transparency is more difficult, for various reasons.

Appraisal Today newsletter

CU – census tracts, adjustments, "bad apples", etc.

There is a lot of misinformation about CU. No one knows what will happen when CU is fully implemented. I speculate myself. I am an appraiser. I have opinions ;>

UAD is mechanical. CU is asking appraisers to think about their appraisals, not how to classify a characteristic.

For the appraisal profession, I think CU will make us better appraisers by making us take a critical look at adjustments. It will also help get rid of the “bad apples”, including appraisers that “push” values, throw anything into the form to get it out the door, need lots more training and education, etc.

I think Fannie’s main purpose of CU may be to stop appraisers from having low (or high) adjustments, inappropriate comps, using Q/C ratings, etc. to make values higher. That is what they worry about.

Only using comps from within the subject’s census tract is ridiculous and I’m sure CU will not be doing this. It is a good idea to see which census tracts match the neighborhood boundaries that you use. Or, part of Census Tracts. Then you can put the census tracts you use in your appraisal. In some areas census tracts are way out of date due to new construction, plus other problems.

To find census tracts near any property, go to http://www.huduser.org/qct/qctmap.html and type in an address.

I started my business in 1986 and had to put census tract numbers in my appraisals for the first time. I had previously worked for an assessor’s office and had never done a lender appraisal. I used Thomas Brothers Census Tract books to find them. To me, they often represented a reasonable way to delineate all, or part of, a neighborhood. Looking at the current census map for Alameda, CA, my city (population 75,000), it definitely did a good job of defining neighborhoods. However, I usually have to include more than one census tract as there is not enough data to do an appraisal otherwise. It did miss one very important neighborhood where most of Alameda’s large historic homes are located. There is a significant premium for being in this neighborhood. I very, very seldom go out of this neighborhood for comps. I suspect there are issues like this in other geographic areas. I have no idea what area Fannie would use, so I would put an explanation in my appraisal.

The problem is the forms, which were developed for use on tract homes. If you are not appraising a conforming tract home, it is like trying to put square boxes into round holes.

Every appraisal will have a risk score. A high risk score (1.0 to 5.0, where 5.0 is high risk) does not mean an appraisal is “bad”. It may be in an area of declining values or have a negative location problem. Or, not enough comps to provide a reliable value.

Remember that only certain UAD items will be considered by CU for now. If it is not UAD formatted, it will not be looked at. I don’t think Fannie’ use of census tracts will be the issue.

The Big Issue is support for adjustments. I have no idea how to support all the adjustments I make in my appraisals. I know what buyers will pay more, or less, for. But, I don’t know the exact dollar amount.

Regression is just one way to support adjustments, but it will not work for many adjustments, particularly if there are very few sales. Regression is not the only answer. There are many other methods. I will be writing about them in my paid email newsletters.

Regression works very well for time adjustments. Be sure yours are market based, not just from an MC form.

I am seriously considering not making any dollar adjustments when I use form reports for non-lending work, except time adjustments. I never make dollar adjustments on narratives and apartment form reports. My state regulator wants to see support in my files for adjustments.

Just because there is a box does not mean it has to be filled in. Qualitative adjustments are fine. There was a Fannie form developed and used for awhile in the 80s or early 90s that did not use dollar adjustments, only plus or minus signs. I worry about that a lot. The old Fannie 2-4 unit form did not have any adjustment boxes. I really hated when they changed that form to include adjustment boxes and de-emphasize the Income Approach.

No one knows how CU will work out. Will everyone turn down appraisals except for conforming tract homes? Will there be no one to do the tough appraisals and work in rural areas. When appraisers are compared, does the majority opinion win?

Will the days of 24 hour turn times and $200 fees be gone? Will AMCs stop broadcasting all appraisal orders to everyone on their fee panels? Will all appraisers be seen as the same and interchangeable? Or, will appraisers be rated on skills, education and experience? Will fees go up? Will fees be based on difficulty of the appraisal? Will lots of appraisers abandon the lender appraisal ship of fools?

Read the webinar pdfs and look at the maps from the two Fannie Webinars to see what they actually are doing. I spent lots of hours doing this, plus speaking with others about what they thought. Of course, it was for a 12-page article in my paid newsletter. Plus 18 pages of excerpts from Fannie documents and webinars. I probably would not have done it otherwise ;>

Go to www.fanniemae.com/singlefamily/collateral-underwriter and listen to Fannie’s two webinars for underwriters – very good with excellent illustrations and explanations. Plus, read the FAQs. You need to register, but it is very easy and you go directly to the webinar and can return at any time. There are lots of links on the web page for more information.

Last month’s January 2015 issue of the paid Appraisal Today newsletter had a 12-page article on CU plus 18 pages of addenda material. The February and subsequent issues will address problems such as how to make adjustments. Click the ad below for more information.

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Fees and getting C/R vary widely-per www.AppraisalPort.com polls

Fees and getting C/R vary widely – per www.AppraisalPort.com  polls

As you can see above, appraisers say that 60% or more of their  clients are paying C/R fees

As you can see above, only 9% of appraisers say C/R is under $350. Yet, I suspect that many are working for under $350 fees. Looking at the poll above,  60% or more of respondents say are working for C/R fees. Are most of them doing a lot of non-lender work, VA appraisals, AMCs who pay C/R, or direct lenders?

As you can see from the two polls, they show that 60% of residential appraisers say they are getting $400 or more per appraisal. If you’re not in the 60%, its time to change.

But, somehow the results seem strange to me. With AMCs at about 80% of the lender market and limited non-lender work available (as compared with commercial appraising) who are the 60% of the appraisers working for? If it is accurate, it means there are lots of clients paying C/R fees…

If you want to get higher AMC fees, you must:
1. Ask for higher fees and
2. Dump cheap AMCs
3. Only bid on jobs that won’t take much time and have few revision requests
Why don’t appraisers do this? Fear and Greed, just like all other businesses. Fear – afraid they will never get another appraisal job. Greed – want more money now. You have to overcome this to be successful in today’s very competitive AMC appraisal market. It is your choice to work for low fees and very demanding clients.

Next month’s paid Appraisal Today newsletter will have an article on how to overcome Fear and Greed and get higher fees.

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How much time should clients give appraisers to deliver a 1004 report on a typical (not unique) property?

www.Appraisalport.com  poll results



Take the current poll at www.appraisalport.com  on c/r fees –
What percentage of your clients offers what you would consider to be customary and reasonable fees for most assignments?

Appraisal Today newsletter

Where Did All the Good Appraisers Go?

Where Did All the Good Appraisers Go?

By Hamp Thomas, Institute of Housing Technologies

Excerpt:

As appraisal fees go downward, quality is going in the same direction. The best appraisers, who have invested years and years in building their careers don’t want to work for a company that they have to check in with every 12 hours, and get treated like a school kid in the principal’s office. An untrained and unlicensed person on the other end of the phone is making their schedule and deciding who gets paid what. And guess what – it’s going to get worse… The best appraisers are finding other types of appraisal work (that values their craft), and the appraisers that work on mortgage loans are often the newer licensees or trainees. If all this Reform we’re talking about is still hoping for higher quality appraisals for use in mortgage lending, we’re in deep trouble. The best appraisers are leaving mortgage appraising as fast as they can.

Appraisers get together and discuss how “bass ackwards” all this “reform” is, and why something that is so logical has been stretched far enough that the government is biting; hook, line, and sinker… If you want a higher quality product, you have to pay more. Look around. Do the best doctors get paid more? How about the best mechanics? The best architects? The best teachers and speakers? The best attorneys? People seek out the best and they are in such great demand, they command higher fees. This is nothing new, it’s just the way the system is supposed to work. So why do we think that appraisals should be different? The lenders, and government officials, and AMC’s think appraisers can be paid less, be required to do more work in each report, and then the quality of appraisals will go up? Come on, this is not rocket science. In most cases, when you add a middleman to any process the price goes up and the quality goes down. Ask Walmart…

http://www.housemeasures.com/ArticlePages/Where-Did-All-the-Good-Appraisers-Go–.html

My comment: AMCs, and the lenders that hire them, see all appraisers as the same. Why not go for the lowest fee? Yes, there are direct lenders who care, and big lenders who have “special lists” of experienced and well trained appraisers, typically for high end homes or people who are top bank customers. Those appraisers are paid much more than the appraisers who compete on fee.
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