4-24-20 Newz: Markets Changing? Free Webinars – UFO Homes

NOTICE TO READERS: No covid analysis this week except for this market discussions. Taking a break from Covid. To read my April 3 newsletters, with lots of mostly scientific info, plus updates in these emails since that April 3, go to www.appraisaltoday.com/coronavirus

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House with epidemic influenza and Coronavirus Covid-19 concept

By Ryan Lundquist

Excerpt: FIVE WEEKS AGO: About five weeks ago the real estate market started to have a strong reaction to the coronavirus. I look to March 12th as our day of change as that’s when things started to kick into high gear with events cancelling and sellers and buyers backing off the market.

OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW:

1) Pendings and listings declined heavily for a few weeks.

2) Pending contracts have begun to increase again.

3) More new listings are hitting the market.

See how Ryan analyses his market – lots of graphs. Also watch a video interview with Ryan. To read more, click here

My comment: See how the Burmingham, AL is analyzed below. What works for your market?

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Do We Have To Wait To Know How The Pandemic Will Affect Our Market?

Ryan’s interview with Dustin Harris, the Appraiser Coach

Excerpt: Many appraisers are in a “wait and see” pattern, but should we be doing more to be on top of the market? My friend Ryan Lundquist joins me today to talk about his recent article on Sacramento Appraisal Blog called “Seven Things To Watch In Real Estate During a Pandemic.” This is a timely topic for all appraisers.

To listen to the 30 minute audio recording click here

My comment: Ryan’s “Seven Things” article had a huge number of clicks last week. If you missed it, click here

Read more!!

3-20-20 COVID-19 and Appraisers. What are lenders doing? – FREE Webinar – Interior inspections?

There are many, many issues which seems to be changing on a daily basis. I wrote this yesterday. There have already been changes I am sure. I am including links to relevant information below

The big refi boom is causing lots of desperate lenders and AMCs trying to find appraisers.

You don’t need more info on keeping safe as it is available all over. What I discuss today is shift from interior inspections to drivebys, forms, what lenders are saying, what real estate agents are doing, the market changes (maybe), liability, etc.

What are lenders and AMCs doing?

Some direct lenders, such as Citibank, are sending out emails about what they recommend. On the other side AMCs are acting like nothing has happened and sending out email blast low fee appraisal request. FYI, it is a lot easier for one lender to change. AMCs work for many lenders.

Info on what Citibank is recommending from VaCAP:

Many are fearful exterior only appraisals will be the end of the traditional appraisal as we know it. Right or wrong, exterior only appraisals are a possibility that may be acceptable in certain situations. VaCAP does not believe it will end traditional appraisals with interior inspections. The profession has been down this road before. It will not fly long term, especially if the market turns downward.

Some lenders are establishing COVID-19 protocols to follow and some have remained quiet on the subject. There are rumors that one lender has instructed appraisers not to inquire as the health of the occupants of the home due to privacy laws. Others like Citibank have developed their own protocol on how appraisers should handle COVID-19 concerns. There is great flexibility to the appraiser. See Citibank’s protocol below:

Worth reading. To read more, click here

Read more!!

3-6-20 Newz: Refi Mania – Corelogic AMC – Coronavirus & Housing Market

CoreLogic attributes its 4Q growth from shift to an AMC

Excerpt: Organic growth trends accelerated during the quarter boosted by market share and pricing gains. One example of accelerated momentum on the organic growth front relates to our new collateral valuation services model.

As you know, we successfully completed our AMC transformation last December. Our new service model has attracted significant market interest and we’ve recently secured major new contracts with two of the top 10 US mortgage originators. These wins together with a host of other new contracts for our reimagined service model are expected to generate strong double-digit underlying AMC revenue growth with higher margins in 2020.

To read more, click here

NOTE: Long article. Search for amc (21 references)

My comment: More staff appraisers? google corelogic AMC for more info.

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Giant Roadside Curiosities

Just For Fun and Escape!!

Excerpts: American highways have something for everyone. Lots of litter. License plates galore. And, if you take the right route, a dinosaur car wash, or a supper club in the biggest fish you’ve ever seen.

To read more, click here

Read more!!

2-28-20 Newz: Adjustments – Appraiser Personalities – Data Standards

The One Personality Trait Every Property Appraiser Must Have

Excerpt:

Unbiased (46%)

“As an appraiser, you MUST give an unbiased opinion of value based on the data you have collected and your experience for it to be valid.”

“If you can’t be unbiased you should not be an appraiser. It is the hallmark of what an appraiser does.”

“Every appraiser needs to be unbiased. You can have knowledge, experience, patience, and all the credentials in the world, but if you are biased in either direction you are doing your client a disservice whether it benefits you or them.”

To read the other top traits and other interesting comments, click here

My comment: I was trained at an assessor’s office. When I first started working there I was told never to even have a taxpayer pay for your lunch. We were trained to be unbiased. Lending was a big shock for me later, with the pressure for values and non-disclosures. Most say that ethics come from within you. But, maybe fear of losing your appraisal license could be a motivator.

I don’t think that USPAP, licensing, regulations, etc. has done much about this. All it does is make us pay for a new USPAP book and class every other year. Plus way too many changing regulations. Plus very uneven state board enforcement. Before licensing, lenders knew who on their panels were ethical. When I started worked at a biotech company doing real estate management, I knew which local commercial appraisers were ethical and who was not after making a few phone calls. Of course, to many AMCs, all appraisers are the same, are sorta stupid and maybe unethical.

Read more!!

2-14-2020 Newz: FIRREA Under Attack – Spectacular Spirals – Lending Up to 2005 Levels

FIRREA Under Attack!

Excerpt: Congresswoman Maxine Waters and Congressman William Lacy Clay request a formal study/investigation into Title XI (FIRREA) and the recent dilution of its intent by the Federal Agencies. The letter to Gene Dodaro, Comptroller General, Government Accountability Office, addresses threshold increases, regulatory exemptions, appraisal waivers, the North Dakota appraiser certification waiver and evaluations in lieu of an appraisal. It is clear the Chairwoman of the House Financial Services Committee and Subcommittee Chairman on Housing, Community Development and Insurance see the issues surrounding the recent events.

To read the press release and appraiser comments, click here

My comment: finally someone in Congress is noticing what is happening and complaining to the GAO!!

Read more!!

2-7-20 Newz: Obsolete Appraisers – Apartment AVMs – Outlier Sales

Not getting distracted by outlier sales

By Ryan Lundquist

It’s been a record-breaking couple of years. In New York we saw the highest residential sale ever in the United States at $238M. Then a couple months ago California got a new record with the Beverly Hillbillies mansion at $150M. And now there’s a listing in Bel-Air that just hit the market at $500M. The truth is it’s easy to get distracted by the bling of outlier sales because of how lofty the prices are, but here are a few things to keep in mind….

1) These sales don’t pull the market up: Outlier sales don’t pull the rest of the market up, and they have nothing to do with the entry-level market or affordability for the average person.

2) I just gotta have it: My observation with the highest sales is sometimes cash buyers offer prices that seem disconnected from what looks reasonable on paper. This doesn’t happen in all situations, but sometimes it does where the buyer simply says, “I just gotta have it.”…

For lots more tips, plus a few graphs, click here

My comment: When doing any type of statistical analysis, it is important to look at the outliers, high or low, so you can eliminate them in your data set. Very easy to do.

Read more!!

1-17-20 Newz: Appraisal Creep – Spot Value – MLS Most Popular Words – Competency

Appraisal Creep – The Hidden Reason Why House Prices Are Too High 

Excerpts: Appraisal values should not be influenced by the price of the listing, but could a bias exist that proves otherwise? “Does the typical appraisal protect you from overpaying for a house?” asks John Wake in his article, The Hidden Reason Why House Prices Are Too High (And Income Growth Is Too Low) — Appraisal Creep.

The study looked at houses where two appraisals were done, one after they were foreclosed on and Fannie took ownership, and a second appraisal when they were under contract. Both appraisals were done within 6 months of each other and no repairs were made to the houses in the meantime. After adjusting for general house price appreciation between the first and second appraisals, the study found the second appraisals were 4.2% higher than the first appraisals…

The study made a few suggestions. The one I mentioned in the Forbes.com piece was not giving the appraiser the contract price. On one hand, the contract price holds a lot of information in it. On the other hand, releasing the contract price seems to skew the resulting appraisals a lot.

Appraisal Buzz short interview To read more, click here

Read lots more analysis and graphs in his very good Forbes article, To read more, click here

Read more!!

11-29-19 Newz: Choosing Comps – VA and Bifurcated – Most Expensive Homes

By George Dell

Excerpt: This question caused me to rethink the relationship of ‘spiritual’ or ‘mental health’ principles to profitable business practices. From last year’s blog, the research showed benefits with: relationships, physical and emotional health, reduced anger/isolation, sleep, self-esteem, and even improved brain power! Cool.

So, do these things cost me money? Or do they help make more money?

Let’s start with the obvious: what’s in an appraiser’s required belief system: Standards, ethics, and conduct. Recall that USPAP requires you to be worthy. Worthy of belief. Credible.

So, what in that list helps me make more money?

To read more, click here

My comment: Very good appraisal comments for Thanksgiving and the upcoming holidays! Worth reading.

Read more!!

11-8-19 Newz: Zestimates – Fee Transparency – Science and Appraising

National Appraisers Forum

By Dave Towne

Excerpt: Appraisers, if you would like to learn from highly qualified peers (other than me! :), post questions, or offer your own comments, consider joining the FREE group, National Appraisers Forum (NAF). Use this link.

This is one of the best appraiser groups as all commentary is respectful. While not everyone always agrees with certain points, the discussions are not demeaning. There is a wealth of info participants share freely on a wide number of topics. The group has several moderators who monitor the posting activity.

One key point, NAF participants are not anonymous. You must use your name (at a bare minimum) when participating, which is required when signing up… Moderators are asking that anyone who wants to join should give their name as licensed, the state they are in, and their license number.

To read more, click here

My comments: This is my favorite appraiser online group! I get many emails from various sources for this newsletter and have been a member of many online communication places. Before the internet was widely available, I hosted live chats on aol and compuserve. Since then I have watched many online places. Unfortunately, just like any other topic, sometimes the groups end up doing lots of “flaming” (attacking another participants, etc.), negative comments, off topic, politics, etc. I quit going to these places.

Of all the groups I have subscribed to, National Appraisers Forum is the best for me. I have been a member since it started, or soon after. No complaining about AMCs, off topic, trolling and flaming, etc. The founder, Steve Smith, and the moderators keep it this way. Regular contributors are “high end” appraisers with many years of experience. Hot topics are often discussed.

There are well managed appraisal groups on Facebook, but it is too hard to for me to follow the threads, so I don’t go there very often. But, it may work for you.

Another major factor is that you must use your real name, so we know who is commenting. Allowing anonymous postings can easily decay into a mess.

I will be updating my article ” How to connect with other appraisers online. What’s the best group for you? ” in a future issue of the paid Appraisal Today discussing other email chat groups, how to find other groups or start your own, Facebook, etc.

Read more!!

10-18-19 Newz: What is Risk? – Fascinating Islands – Fees – Data Standards

What’s all this stuff about risk?

By George Dell

We seem to be hearing stuff about risk recently. Why?

Back in the old days, before internet but after the wheel – It was my challenge as a new appraiser to scratch together four or five comps, then put three of them on a form, or perhaps even all five on a table. We called the table a ‘grid,’ presumably because it looked like the grid on a bird cage.

I soon discovered I was free to fly around inside the grid cage all I wanted. I adjusted to what I had. I learned to live inside the cage.

Then flying electrons came. They flew right through the grid. There were many. Sometimes even a dozen or more. All claiming to be comp messages. It was too much. I had the five. Should be enough. Yep. That’s what my trainer said. That’s what my appraiser education said. And sure enough, it was on my test for my new appraiser license…

To read more, click here

My comment: Next month’s paid Appraisal Today will have a long article, “Adjust your adjustment, or adjust your attitude?  The Hype and the Reality” by George Dell. Very interesting!

Read more!!