Newz: Limited Comps, Freddie Mac: Property Data Collection, Avoiding ourt
January 23, 2026
What’s in This Newsletter (In Order, Scroll Down)
- LIA AD: Avoiding Court
- Arriving at a Credible Appraisal When Comparable Sales Are Limited By Kevin Hecht
- MAPPED: The Most Expensive Home Sales of 2025—From Palantir CEO’s Record-Breaking Ranch to Florida’s Priciest Mansion
- MY AD: The AMC Conundrum in the Appraisal Business by Dave Towne
- From Data to Value: How Mass Appraisal Delivers Fair Market Assessments
- Freddie Mac. Insight Articles: Property Data Collection: An Overview
- Housing Market Predictions for 2026
- MBA: Mortgage applications increased 14.1 percent from one week earlier
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Arriving at a Credible Appraisal When Comparable Sales Are Limited
By Kevin Hecht
Excerpts: Limited sales activity is common in rural markets, custom-home neighborhoods, and low-turnover areas. When comps are few, the appraiser’s task is not to find perfect matches, but to show that the selected sales are the best available indicators of value and that all departures from ideal data are well supported.
In this article, we’ll answer questions like: How far back do appraisers look for comps? How far out geographically? What other tips and tricks do appraisers use to arrive at a credible appraisal, even when comps are limited? Additionally, we’ll share some insights from appraisers who answered our survey question, “What do you do when appraisal comps are few?”
When recent, proximate, and similar sales are unavailable, appraisers typically rely on some combination of the “Three D’s” to broaden their search for comparable property sales:
Dated – Search for older sales within the subject neighborhood.Distant – Search for similar sales farther away in competing neighborhoods.
Dissimilar – Search for dissimilar sales within the subject neighborhood by widening the parameters for improvements (GLA, age, features, etc.).
How Far Back Do Appraisers Look for Comps?
Time adjustments draw scrutiny. Most agency assignments expect appraisers to use the most recent closed sales available, typically within the prior 12 months when possible.1 When older sales are used, market conditions adjustments often become central to the analysis.
Time adjustments should be supported with clear data, applied consistently, and reconciled logically. Underwriters pay close attention to whether these adjustments reflect documented market behavior rather than assumptions, particularly in shifting markets.
We surveyed our appraisal community to find out, “What do you do when appraisal comps are few?” The following comments show how individual appraisers often put their own spin on the “Three D’s” when expanding the search for comparable sales:
“Time and distance. My preference is to go back farther in time within the same neighborhood and/or market area and make market condition adjustments. If that still doesn’t provide enough comps, I expand the market area, looking for more recent sales with similar characteristics to the subject property.”
“First consider a broader time frame. Market conditions adjustments are very supportable.”
“Expand search to other competitive neighborhoods. Next, go back in time.”
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I usually go back in time sometimes several years or longer if needed. Of course, I don’t do GSE appraisals with their restrictions…
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MAPPED: The Most Expensive Home Sales of 2025—From Palantir CEO’s Record-Breaking Ranch to Florida’s Priciest Mansion
Excerpts: The luxury housing market became a battlefield between two states in 2025—as Florida and California duked it out to claim the greatest share of the priciest properties sold over the past 12 months.
As much of the country battled economic uncertainty, the richest 1% proved that nothing would hold them back from securing the dwelling of their dreams, with Realtor.com® data showing that four mansions were sold for $100 million or more, one of which topped $200 million.
Interestingly, the property that shot to the top of the list of most expensive homes sold in the past year was not located in one of the more prominent wealthy communities, like Palm Beach or Manalapan, but rather in Naples, where the $225 million abode claimed the crown for priciest property in April.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Includes maps showing the sales. Most are in California and Florida. I have included some of them in this newsletter.
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From Data to Value: How Mass Appraisal Delivers Fair Market Assessments
By Michael Small
Excerpts: The Appraisal Foundation defines mass appraisal as “the systematic appraisal of groups of properties as of a given date using standardized procedures and statistical testing.” In practice, mass appraisal is a method used to value large numbers of similar properties at the same time consistently. Properties may be grouped by physical characteristics, location, or property type. Mass appraisal is mostly used for ad valorem (property tax) assessments.
Mass Appraisal in Henrico County
To understand how mass appraisal functions in practice, it is helpful to look at how the process is applied at the local level. In Henrico County, Virginia, each residential appraiser is responsible for reassessing every property in their assigned territory as of January 1st of each year. A typical territory includes 9,000 to 10,000 parcels.
Residential territories are broken down into neighborhoods, and neighborhoods are further divided into subdivisions. Each subdivision may have unique characteristics that affect value. Within a neighborhood, properties should be as homogeneous as possible, like how comparable sales are selected in a fee appraisal.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: I write sometimes about my first 5 years of appraising at a California assessor’s office in the late 1970s. I was very lucky to get this experience. I appraised everything in the geographic area I was assigned.
In late 1970, “Proposition 13” passed in California not allowing re-assessments except for sales and updating plus up to a 2% adjustment. Since I would not be doing traditional re-assessments, I quit the assessor’s office. I did not want to work in an office all day. I lost a good pension income.
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The AMC Conundrum in the Appraisal Business
By Dave Towne
In the December 2025 issue of the monthly Appraisal Today
Excerpts
New URAR/UAD Process
Another conundrum to this situation is the latest evolution in appraising
residential properties for mortgage loan purposes. That’s the New
URAR/UAD process which is very near to being implemented US-wide early
in 2026.
Those 25 or so of us GSE approved instructors for the ‘New URAR’
reports could see at the end of our mandatory training session in Sept. 2024
that the new reports would require the appraiser to spend additional time in
the field when doing property inspections.
I don’t think this original opinion has changed much, if any, as we have
instructed multiple classes to hundreds of appraisers across the US this
year. Appraisers see this as realistic during the class, based on the course
evaluations turned in.
Fees for New URAR/UAD
But the real issue with this conundrum is the attitude of lenders and
their AMC’s about the increased time involved doing these new reports,
coupled with the necessity for the appraiser to acquire a tablet with which to
do the variable data base collection process while in the field.
The attitude may be that “it’s no big deal” because people tend to resist
change and just accept the status quo because it’s easier to do that. I’m
concerned that the AMC’s present ‘cost sheet’ won’t change, at least initially,
for the New URAR reports. This could lead to fewer independent appraisers
willing to work for AMC’s.
Can the present conundrum be modified? Can things change?
Perhaps I’m too much the optimist, but I believe it can. However,
appraisers have to be strong enough to stand their ground and insist that
fees earned back in 2009 are insufficient now.
Lenders have to understand that the upcoming modification to the
appraisal data gathering and reporting process will take more appraiser time.
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Freddie Mac. Insight Articles | January 16, 2026
Property Data Collection: An Overview
Excerpts: Property data collection requires viewing and reporting property characteristics in a fact-based manner. It’s not an appraisal or appraisal report and doesn’t involve the development of an opinion of value. Property data reports (PDRs), the product of property data collection, are used to inform alternative collateral valuation options offered by Freddie Mac.
Property data collector requirements
Property data collectors must complete required training, must undergo periodic criminal background checks and are subject to Seller oversight. Engagement of property data collectors is covered by independence requirements that are very similar to the Appraiser Independence Requirements (AIR) for appraisers. Licensed/certified appraisers or appraiser trainees are also able to serve as property data collectors. Freddie Mac lists on its website providers that support the UPD and integration and verification requirements for the PDR.
Other topics:
Protecting the independence of property data collectors
Property data collector training
Seller oversight of property data collectors
Appraiser considerations: potential liability
To read more, Click Here
My comments: Appraisers overall don’t have a positive opinion of PDCs. This article tells you what Freddie says.
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Housing Market Predictions for 2026
Excerpts: Key Takeaways:
- Interest rates: Predicted to fall to around 5.2% for 15-year loans.
- Home prices: Expected to rise 2.1–4%. If you’re financially ready to buy now, don’t wait.
- Supply of homes (inventory): Gradually increasing but still below pre-2020 levels.
- Buyer demand: Steady but could increase as rates lower.
- Risk of market crash: Virtually none.
- Overall: Expect a slowly cooling—but still expensive—market with rising inventory, steady demand, and slightly lower interest rates.
If you’re wondering what the 2026 housing market forecast may look like—whether prices will fall, rates will drop, or a crash is coming—you’re not alone. The real estate market has seen a lot of unusual trends in the past couple of years, so it makes sense that you’d want to get a 2026 housing outlook before you make any major decisions.
Here’s the thing: Housing market predictions are about as reliable as weather forecasts. Real estate professionals make their best predictions based on data, but no one can know what’s going to happen with 100% accuracy. Plus, national predictions don’t always match what’s happening in your local market since housing trends vary a lot by zip code.
Still, you can listen to what the experts are saying and make some pretty good guesses.
To read more, Click Here
My comments: No one knows what 2026 will bring for housing markets now. Maybe some forecasters will be correct. Of course, it varies widely even within a city, state, or region.
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HOW TO USE THE NUMBERS BELOW. Appraisals are ordered after the loan application. These numbers tell you the future for the next few weeks. For more information on how they are compiled, Click Here.
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My comments: Rates are going up and down. We are all waiting for rates to drop lower in 2026.”top”>WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 21, 2026) — Mortgage applications increased 14.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 16, 2026.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 20 percent from the previous week and was 183 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications, which saw the strongest level of activity since September 2025. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.16 percent, the lowest rate since September 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These lower rates prompted greater refinance activity from conventional and VA refinance borrowers, with increases of 29 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Refinance applications accounted for more than 60 percent of applications, and the average loan size also moved higher.”
Added Kan, “Purchase applications were also up over the week, fueled by an 8 percent increase in conventional loan activity, and were almost 18 percent higher than last year.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 61.9 percent of total applications from 60.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.1 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 15.9 percent from 19.2 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 16.2 percent from 16.1 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.4 percent from the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($832,750 or less) decreased to 6.16 percent from 6.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.54 from 0.56 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $832,750) decreased to 6.39 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.38 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.04 percent from 6.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.73 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.55 percent from 5.60 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs remained unchanged at 5.42 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.49 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The survey covers U.S. closed-end residential mortgage applications originated through retail and consumer direct channels. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
Ann O’Rourke, MAI, SRA, MBA
Appraiser and Publisher Appraisal Today
1826 Clement Ave. Suite 203 Alameda, CA 94501
Phone: 510-865-8041
Email: ann@appraisaltoday.com
Online: www.appraisaltoday.com
