My comment: Very interesting article with good photos plus some info on castles in Europe for comparison. FYI – article is in the New York Times, which only allows a few free articles before requiring a subscription.
My comments: Lots of good ideas. Very well written with good analysis and excellent use of graphs and annotated maps. I regularly go back in the past for comps and analysis. Making market conditions adjustments is very easy. I also use percent adjustments, which tend to be stable over time.
My comment: Percent of value varies widely. Of course, the total dollar amounts vary even more! I love data!!
Source: Appraiserville by Jonathan Miller
Is the quasi-provocative title of Barry Bates’ article in the May 2017 issue of Appraisal Today. It’s “quasi” because the central issue, the livelihood threat represented by AVMs, has been around for at least 20 years. It’s provocative because Barry’s research suggests that AVMs, bolstered by artificial intelligence, satellite overlays and more robust attributive data, are a bigger threat than ever.
He also cites a 2015 Oxford white paper that studied 702 U.S. jobs and rated their likelihood of total computerization over the next 10 years; “Appraisers and Assessors” warranted a 90% likelihood. Bates explains why, by 2023, that might as well be a function of the residential market assignment volume, i.e., 10% of 2013 volume. One of the factors he mentions is the erosion of federal rules that once ensured that every new origination for refinance or purchase would be accompanied by a full appraisal of the real property.
Not only has the rule been undermined by a variety of new Fannie/Freddie/VA loan programs that don’t require appraisals, but the federal rule itself was modified in 2015 to give the GSEs power to decide whether any particular loan (or type of loan)was worthy of a waiver.
Another factor (of several) is the availability of “data on steroids”: collateral information (including every field in the Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) from past and current appraisals populating the GSE AVMs and database from every appraisal sent through one of the uniform collateral data portals, like Fannies UCDP, which already allows for appraisal “sharing” for aggregators and Fannie’s correspondent lenders (even the 1004MC data can be offloaded to a siding for market analysis).
Bates concludes that all the necessary pieces are being assembled for an artificial intelligence AVM with robustness equal to the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man.
Bates’ full commentary is in the May issue of the Paid Appraisal Today. For more
info, go to www.appraisaltoday.com/products
Posted in: appraisal business, Appraisal fees, data, Fannie, fees, humorMy comment: check out the fotos!! Wonder what my cat would think about these Dog Houses? I need a Big Cat House, way up high on a pedestal, with mice ;>
My comment: I have always been surprised that so few appraisers are interested in doing VA appraisals. Guess they like working for AMCs with hassles and low fees. Every week, at the bottom of every free email newsletter, I include the MBA origination stats, including VA, which is similar in volume to FHA. This week FHA and VA are very similar – around 11% of originations.
Just For Fun ;>