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Is the Appraisal Profession Dying?By George Dell, MAI
Excerpts:
Yes. Appraisal as we know it is dying.
Can it be saved? No.
So what should I do? What should “we” do?
The data has already been gathered. The analytics software is free. The pictures have already been taken. “Let’s Make a Deal!”
Analysis requires judgment. Human generalization is enhanced by computation. Complete data can be enhanced/cleaned as well as “confirming a comp.” A point value is an inherent part of a predictive value distribution. A documented, reproducible result is the most credible, believable answer.
My comments: I believe that human appraisals will still be needed. There are times that a human appraiser is needed to interpret results, and “go beyond” the data for Highest and Best Use, Unusual properties, etc. Lenders will move to computerized risk management, once investors will accept this. Most residential lender valuations will not need humans as the value of an individual property in investors’ portfolios is not critical. Of course, when the market inevitably crashes, there will be no appraisers to sue to recover some of the lost money. Maybe our E&O premiums will go down.
Covid-19 Residential Appraisers Tips on Staying Safe For Covid Updates, go to my Covid Science blog at covidscienceblog.com To read more of this long blog post, click Read More Below!! |
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AMCs and Respect for Appraisers??By Rachel Massey, SRA
Excerpt: …an example of an AMC that is not paying attention to the comments from the declination. If an appraiser declines due to coverage area, then it should not be reassigned. But also, if appraisers decline because the fee is inadequate, is upping it a paltry $25 going to cut it? In the time between the initial order and the subsequent, ten days passed. Had the AMC picked up the phone and started calling appraisers, they may have had much better success at finding someone who first of all covers the area, and second of all, would tell them how much it would take for them to take on the assignment. AMCs and Respect for Appraisers??
My comments: Worth reading plus the appraiser comments, of course!!
Covid-19 Residential Appraisers Tips on Staying Safe For Covid Updates, go to my Covid Science blog at covidscienceblog.com To read more of this long blog post, click Read More Below!! |
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What if you don’t want to do desktop bifurcated appraisals or do the very tough appraisals that don’t work for AVMs? Or wait, once again, for the lender market to finally come back.
There are many forces trying to get field appraisers out of doing full valuations for mortgage loans. Automation and Artificial Intelligence will increase this trend, as it has done in other professions. For example, Quicken software dramatically decreased demand for manual bookkeepers. Once lenders can determine which properties will work well with an AVM, and they will, there will be fewer human appraisals.
Recently, several appraisers emailed and called me saying their non-lender work would go down due to fee competition from desperate lender appraisals. Yes, this does happen in downturns, especially when it first starts going down fast. Estate appraisals are easy, and this market is affected. Plus other non-lender markets.
What is the answer? The only answer I know is to do litigation support. In my area, there are very few residential appraisers who will testify in court. When they go up against an MAI who does 1-2, or fewer, residential appraisals per year, they win. Good demand, repeat business, fees much, much higher than any other type of appraisal business, respected as an expert. Almost the opposite of AMC appraisals.
Why are residential appraisers very reluctant to do Expert Witness court testimony? Fear of the unknown I guess. I did them in the past and had no problems with testifying as an expert in court or in a deposition.
Next month in my monthly paid newsletter, I will have an article on Litigation Support and Court Testimony. I have been writing a lot about doing non-lender work. There are lots of options, but this is by far the most profitable with very little competition.
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Best TED Talks for AppraisersHere is a sample:
Grit: The power of passion and perseverance by Angela Duckworth.
Her rousing treatise on the power of grit and determination. These valuable qualities can help you become your best self in relation to your appraisal career. Coming up with accurate estimates and choosing the right comps to use can be frustrating – but keeping calm and pushing through will mark you as an appraisal professional that folks will seek out for the hardest (and most lucrative) jobs.
My comments: Angela Duckworth is one of my favorite TED speakers. I listen to a lot of podcasts. The TED Radio Hour is one I listen to a lot. It combines several TED talks on the same topic with references on how to listen to the full TED talks. Fascinating!!
“TED is a nonprofit devoted to spreading ideas, usually in the form of short, powerful talks (18 minutes or less). TED began in 1984 as a conference where Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED) converged, and today covers almost all topics – from science to business to global issues – in more than 100 languages.”
Covid-19 Residential Appraisers Tips on Staying Safe For Covid Updates, go to my Covid Science blog at covidscienceblog.com To read more of this long blog post, click Read More Below!! |
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$400,000 Proposed bank threshold for appraisals to be replaced by evaluationsBelow are links to the proposed rule, what others are saying, and where to send your comments on the proposed rule.
OCC Issues Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to Exempt Residential Real Estate Transactions of $400,000 or Less from Appraisal Requirements
Excerpts: Rather than requiring an appraisal, the proposal would require that residential real estate transactions exempted by the threshold obtain an evaluation consistent with safe and sound banking practices.
Read what the OCC says in their announcement – one page www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2018/nr-occ-2018-123.html
Comments will be accepted for 60 days from publication in the Federal Register.
Instructions in the full Full 69-page proposed rulemaking. Download the above link and search for comments
The word “evaluation” is included many times in the document. Google evaluation to see what it says.
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FDIC, OCC, Fed propose raising appraisal threshold for first time since 1994. Good analysis of how many loans would be affected:
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Push to cut back on home appraisals sparks controversy
By Ken Harney, long time nationally syndicated real estate writer who regularly writes about appraisal issues
Excerpt: The Trump administration wants to eliminate professional appraisals on a large number of home-sale transactions – a move that critics say could push the country back toward the see-no-evil days of mortgage lending that preceded the housing crash.
Includes comments from appraisers Ryan Lundquist and Pat Turner plus Appraisal Institute.
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Link to Appraisal Institute letter
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Get rid of appraisers while nobody’s looking
By Ryan Lundquist
Excerpt: I’m guessing these “evaluators” will be real estate agents who do BPOs, employees at banks and data firms, and probably some appraisers who need the work at $75-$100 a pop.
Read it here, plus the appraiser comments, of course.
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My comments:
– FIRREA increased the deminimus from $200,000 (1989) to $250,000 in 1994, but appraisals were still done. Why? Fannie and Freddie’s investors wanted them. FHA, VA, etc did not adopt the deminimus.
– What is an ‘evaluation’ and who does them? Hopefully, someone will tell me what is an evaluation?
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Here’s How America Uses Its Land
Excerpt: What can be harder to decipher is how Americans use their land to create wealth. The 48 contiguous states alone are a 1.9 billion-acre jigsaw puzzle of cities, farms, forests and pastures that Americans use to feed themselves, power their economy and extract value for business and pleasure.
One of the many interesting tidbits:
The U.S. is becoming more urban-at an average rate of about 1 million additional acres a year. That’s the equivalent of adding new urban area the size of Los Angeles, Houston and Phoenix combined. U.S. urban areas have more than quadrupled since 1945.
Click here for very interesting graphics and more analysis:
Covid-19 Residential Appraisers Tips on Staying Safe
For Covid Updates, go to my Covid Science blog at covidscienceblog.com
Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!!
To read more of this 8-2-18 long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!!
Reconciliation – Paint a Picture with WordsBy Rachel Massey, SRA
Excerpts: The reconciliation is precisely the place we want to avoid any boilerplate…Appraisers relationships with their clients has similarity with other relationships, but mainly in that we have to really communicate with each other to avoid misunderstanding. This goes for the engagement of services and why we are being hired in the first place, and also goes for communicating our assignment results. In this article, the focus is on the reconciliation section of a written report. Reconciliation for appraisers is very important.
Read the article, and the comments at:
My comment: Excellent, well written article, as usual, from Rachel Massey. FYI, Rachel is a regular contributor to the paid Appraisal Today. Covid-19 Residential Appraisers Tips on Staying Safe For Covid Updates, go to my Covid Science blog at covidscienceblog.com Click here to subscribe to our FREE weekly appraiser email newsletter and get the latest appraisal news!! To read more of this 7-19-20 long blog post with many topics, click Read More Below!! |
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NOTE: Please scroll down to read the other topics in this long blog post on history of appraising, price declines, dining rooms, mortgage origination stats, etc.
| The Most Popular Article From Last Week’s Newsletter: Former Appraiser’s Hot Dog Stand!! FYI, unusual and weird stuff is very popular with appraisers ;> |
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Three-story Single-family Homes and TownhomesExcerpt: Of the 729,000 single-family detached homes started in 2017, a little over 18,000 (2.5 percent) had three or more stories, according to National Association of Home Builder tabulation of recently released Census data.
In contrast, the 23,000 3-plus story townhomes represent 22.0 percent of single-family townhome starts.
More info here:
My comment: 3 story detached homes are not popular in very many areas. It is a long walk up to the 3rd floor. I have appraised them (attic conversions of a classic older home to a master bedroom, for example). I always look to see if an elevator can be added – usually has to be on the exterior of the home. Definitely a functional problem. I rarely see them on existing homes, except for attic conversions. Some newer detached homes have a small room on the 3rd story – family room, extra bedroom, etc.
For townhomes, I have seen a significant increase in 3 story new construction townhomes in my city (within the past few years) and other Bay Area cities. The first floor is a garage plus entry, second floor living room and kitchen, bedrooms on 3rd floor. Very profitable for home builders, especially in areas with high land prices and infill tracts. I have appraised them and the owners did not object to the 3 floors. There are sometimes a few townhomes that are 2 story. My first apartment when I moved to San Francisco in my 20s was a third floor walkup. I vowed Never Again ;> |
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